Hostilities between Israel and Iran have became direct war – is there a way back?

For many years, Iran and Israel have been conducting a “Shadow War.”

Since this conflict didn’t allow for direct military confrontation, it was characterised by war by other means – by proxy wars, Cyber ​​attacks, Economic sanctions and fiery rhetoric.

However, the events of recent weeks within the Middle East have modified the character of this conflict. First, it’s widely believed that Israel violated diplomatic norms by bombing an Iranian mission in Syria. The operation that killed 12 people – including seven officers from the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – has raised the stakes.

A brand new threshold was also crossed. Never before had so many Quds Forces or other Iranian military personnel been killed in a single attack by Iranian adversaries. Almost immediately, Rhetoric from leaders in Tehran indicated that Iran would respond quickly and dramatically.

Then, on April 13, 2024, Iran responded by crossing a border not yet exceeded: Start from a Direct attack on Israeli soil.

Iran's attack on Israel was also qualitatively and quantitatively different from anything Tehran had attempted directly before. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said it was no less than 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 surface-to-surface missiles. The attack was launched from positions in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

Physically, the barrage caused only minor damage. Hagari said that 99% of projectiles fired by Iran were intercepted by air and missile defense, and that just one person was injured. For now, Tehran seems content with its own response; the Iranian mission to the United Nations posted a message on social media After the attack, this indicated that the operation was complete.

But when National security and Middle East expertI consider that the Iranian attack was not about causing physical harm to Israel. Rather, the purpose was that after the Damascus incident, Iran sought to revive deterrence against Israel and show strength to its domestic audience. In doing so, Tehran's leaders are also sending the message that they’re prepared to escalate if Israel takes more aggressive measures against Iranian interests.

Friends, then long-time enemies

Iran and Israel have been adversaries virtually for the reason that Iranian Revolution in 1979, when the Shah of Iran fled the country to get replaced by a theocracy. New leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini severed the previous regime's ties with Israel and quickly adopted a strict anti-Israel agenda, each in words and policy.

In the many years since, Israel and Iran have damaged one another's interests in each the physical and virtual worlds. This also included major terrorist attacks supported by Iran Israeli interests in Argentina In 1992 and 1994 Tehran supported Hezbollah's bitter insurgency against Israel in southern Lebanon and the predominant operational support for Hamas This partially enabled the attacks on October 7, 2023.

In the meantime, Iranian officials have blamed Israel for killing a senior citizen Military officials and scientists related to Iran's nuclear program in Iran or elsewhere within the region.

Israel's lack of open recognition of the killings should result in this the illusion of plausible deniability and solid doubt on who was actually responsible.

In recent years, Iran has focused heavily on its “Axis of resistance” — militant groups in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza that share a few of Tehran’s goals, particularly with regard to fighting Israel and weakening U.S. influence within the region. In the months-long conflict sparked by the October 7 attack, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen And the Islamic Resistance Network in Iraq have repeatedly attacked Israeli and US interests.

“A clear message”

So what's next? Much will rely upon how Israel and the US react.

Officially: US President Joe Biden has stated that by defending against Iranian missiles and drones, Israel “sent a clear message to its enemies that they cannot threaten effectively.” [its] Security.”

But there are reports about it Biden warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Israel should “achieve victory” and can’t depend on the US to support any offensive operations against Iran.

A variety of aspects will determine whether Iran and Israel proceed open attacks against one another or return to shadow war.

This includes how both sides interprets the domestic political mood. Netanyahu is is already under pressure based on his handling of the war in Gaza and former domestic political concerns about attempts to influence Israel's Supreme Court, amongst other things.

Likewise in Iran United Nations reports that even two years after major public protests within the country, the regime in Iran continues to mercilessly suppress dissent because of socio-economic conditions.

Aside from domestic political considerations, each Iran and Israel may even weigh the risks of more open confrontation against their current operational capabilities. It seems clear here that neither Iran nor Israel can decisively win a protracted military operation against one another.

Israel's powerful military undoubtedly has the flexibility to launch air and missile strikes against Iranian interests within the region. as they’ve already shown in Syria and Lebanon for a few years. And Israel probably could do the identical for a short while on to Iran.

But Israel would face major challenges in sustaining a protracted combined arms campaign in Iran, including relatively small size of the Israel Defense Forces in comparison with the Iranian military and the physical distance between each countries. Israel has openly conducted military exercises for years which appear to focus more on simulating air strikes and maybe special attacks against a smaller variety of targets in Iran, comparable to nuclear facilities.

Furthermore, establishing a brand new front by attacking Iran directly risks diverting Israeli resources from more immediate threats within the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and the northern border with Lebanon.

Of course, Israel has fought and won wars with its regional opponents up to now.

But the conflicts wherein Israel fought against its Arab neighbors 1967 And 1973 took place in a distinct military era and before the event of drone warfare, cyber operations and support for Iranian-backed proxies and partners in Israel's immediate neighborhood.

Beware of further escalation

An identical campaign against Iran could be unlike anything Israel has experienced before. Israel would undoubtedly have a tough time achieving its goals with out a high level of support from the United States and doubtless Arab countries comparable to Jordan and Egypt. And there isn’t any sign that such support would occur.

Iran may even shrink back from further escalation. Tehran proved that it’s so on April thirteenth has a big – and potentially growing – inventory of ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles.

However, the accuracy and effectiveness of lots of these platforms stays questionable – as demonstrated by the apparent ease with which most of those platforms have been shot down. The Israelis and the USA Air and missile defense network within the region continues to prove reliable on this regard.

Given the realities and risks, I feel it’s more likely that Iran will try to return to its unconventional war strategy of supporting its proxy axis of resistance. Open attacks, just like the one on April 13, can serve to signal determination and strength to the house audience.

The danger is that now that the war has come out of the shadows, it could be difficult to bring it back there.