South Korea General election from April 10, 2024, was widely viewed as a referendum about President Yoon Suk Yeol's first two years in office.
Against this backdrop, the nation as a complete expressed its strong disapproval.
With a relatively high voter turnout With a majority of 67%, voters handed Yoon's conservative People's Power Party a defeat for its share of the 300-seat National Assembly Decline from 114 to 108.
The opposition Democratic Party retained its large majority within the National Assembly. Winning 175 seats and maintaining control within the populous metropolitan areas of Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi provinces. Voters also delivered disappointing results for many third-party candidates, except for Reconstruction of the Korea Partywhich fought as a more combative opposition against the DP, and the New Reform Partywhich broke away from the ruling PPP at the start of the yr.
As a Political scientist with a deal with East Asia and international affairsI consider the election results will impact Yoon's foreign and domestic agenda for the rest of his term.
Growing domestic pressure
Yoon had hoped The election would end the political gridlock that has hampered his first two years as president.
During this time the opposition held a legislative majority. Subsequently, Yoon's government has seen essential parts of it his agenda blocked for education, labor and pension reforms. Yoon also vetoed it Several bills were passed by the opposition-controlled legislature.
But within the election, the DP and other opposition parties won 192 seats, just wanting a veto-proof two-thirds majority. This means President Yoon will once more face a divided government for the rest of his term. In fact, he can be the one South Korean president whose party failed to manage the National Assembly at any point in the course of the president's five-year term.
A greater parliamentary result for Yoon's party would have increased the possibilities of the federal government's legislative agenda on pressing domestic issues, corresponding to solving the country's problems declining birth rate, high inflation And Expanding medical student enrollmentin addition to Relaxation of business regulations.
Instead, the Yoon government is prone to find itself on the defensive after the election. Opposition parties have promised to launch an investigation alleged stock manipulation Involvement of First Lady Kim Keon Hee and investigation of former Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup over allegations he influenced a previous report within the US Drowning death of a Korean marine.
Although Yoon retains his veto power, there may be now growing uncertainty over whether the ruling members of the PPP assembly will proceed to defend the president's actions because the two investigations progress.
Meanwhile, President Yoon's Prime Minister Han Duck-soo announced his resignation after the local council election. The National Assembly may vote against the presidential candidate to switch him, which could force Yoon to achieve this select a candidate acceptable for the opposition parties.
A harder foreign policy climate
In South Korea's political system, the presidency has greater leeway in national security and foreign policy than in domestic policy.
Therefore, the Yoon government is prone to proceed its foreign policy trilateral expansion Partnerships with the USA and Japan, Building relationships with NATO and strive to be a ““global central” state within the Asia-Pacific region.
During his first two years in power, Yoon generally did this South Korea focused more closely to the West, despite the fact that he was too to be rigorously avoided direct confrontation with China and Russia – each are geographical neighbors and trading partners.
While the opposition-controlled National Assembly has up to now generally supported the Yoon government's attempts to strengthen ties with the U.S. – a policy that is still popular within the South Korean public – the identical can’t be said for attempts to strengthen relations with Japan.
The Democratic Party and the Party of Reconstruction of Korea particularly have criticized the prospect of a more in-depth partnership with Japan – whether through military exercises or Information exchange – especially as a result of Korea’s experiences under Japanese colonial rule.
And while the 2 opposition parties generally welcome relations with the West, they’re more cautious than the Yoon government with regards to engaging in geopolitical rivalries. In particular, Democratic Party Chairman Lee Jae-myung warned within the recent election campaign that South Korea mustn’t interfere within the war between Russia and Ukraine or the tensions between China and Taiwan.
The opposition may circuitously stop Yoon from pursuing his foreign policy, but it’ll likely put pressure on the president to deal with domestic issues.
In addition, opposition parties will push the Yoon government to exhibit what diplomatic “successes” the country has achieved through its partnership with Japan and the United States. Particularly if the aim of the strategic partnership with the United States and Japan is to make sure security in East Asia, some voters may rightly wonder why it has not deterred North Korea ongoing military provocations.
If the Yoon government fails to exhibit diplomatic successes, opposition parties are prone to describe his foreign policy as one-sided.”submissive diplomacy.”
Yoon has three years to indicate that his foreign policy has paid off; The next presidential election in South Korea will happen in spring 2027.
How successfully the president manages the domestic and international constraints heightened by the final election results could determine whether he exceeds the policy expectations of a president facing or encountering a divided government some predict itan early “lame-duck presidency.”
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