Two years into the strategic transition, the progress made bodes well for the United States, NATO and the world

It has now been greater than two years since Chancellor Olaf Scholz introduced a brand new compound word into the jargon of world politics: “turning point”.

Scholz's Turning point speech February 27, 2022 – the word loosely translates as “turning point” – occurred because the world grappled with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It marked a big change for the world third largest economy and its foreign and defense policy, including significant investments within the weakened German armed forces.

With NATO seventy fifth anniversary summit Has the Scholz government, which is coming up in July, kept its guarantees? And what implications does Germany's turnaround have for the United States?

As an authority for international securityI’m fully aware that critics on each side of the Atlantic disagree with the Scholz government couldn’t be sufficiently strengthened The German armed forces and their military support for Ukraine insufficient. But should you compare Scholz's actions to the goals he originally formulated, there’s reason to consider that he largely kept his guarantees.

Promises kept

In addition to immediate support for Ukraine, Scholz formulated two major long-term goals in his speech. First, strengthening the Bundeswehr through a big, one-off investment, followed by a everlasting increase in defense spending. Second, adopt a more forceful foreign policy to defend a rules-based international order. To this end, Scholz tried to bring Germany even closer to its transatlantic allies while at the identical time reducing the country's energy and economic dependence on Russia and China.

Overall, the turning point amounted to a shift from a technique of engagement with Russia and China to a technique of dialogue with Russia and China Deterrence and risk reduction – that’s, efforts to diversify supply chains so as to make Germany less vulnerable to economic coercion.

The Scholz government has created a 100 billion euro project (about 108 billion US dollars) Special funds for the Bundeswehr and for the For the primary time because the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991Germany will spend 2% of its GDP on its military in 2024. Scholz has also promised to keep up this level of funding until the 2030s.

It is unlikely that this level of spending will make the German military “powerful, modern” force Scholz envisioned. The Bundeswehr hastoo little of every little thing“, because the Armed Forces Commissioner of the German Bundestag recently stated in a devastating assessment.

However, over the subsequent decade, a 2% spending level could enable meaningful modernization, especially if Efforts to scale back bureaucratic hurdles succeed.

Germany's support for Ukraine

Germany can also be the second largest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the USA. From January 2022 to January 2024, it made military aid commitments totaling $100,000 17.7 billion euros (approx. 19 billion US dollars).

In addition, the Scholz government, as the biggest EU budget payer, played a key role on this Channeling a surprising 77.2 billion euros (about 83 billion US dollars) in financial aid from Brussels to Ukraine during this era. And through smart diplomacyScholz first opened the door to EU accession talks with Ukraine after which helped secure them additional financing of fifty billion euros (54 billion US dollars) to avoid wasting Ukraine from economic collapse because the war against Russia drags on.

Nevertheless, Scholz faces criticism for denying Ukraine some weapons systems, including Taurus cruise missile that might penetrate deep into Russia.

His argument is that this Caution is vital In order to avoid an escalation of the conflict, the conservative opposition and parts of his own coalition claim that Scholz has to point out greater determination to discourage Russia.

It is evident that Germany has come a good distance since being ridiculed for Ukraine's offer 5,000 helmets before the Russian invasion in 2022. And Scholz's room for maneuver is restricted by a German public stay cautious from exercise military power abroad.

Change after all towards Russia

Changes within the direction of German foreign and security policy could due to this fact be more necessary than higher defense spending and aid for Ukraine. Ironically, the country is revered strategic thinkers like Carl von Clausewitz had never published a national security strategy before the turn of the century.

Since then, the Scholz government has been unveiled Germany's first National Security Strategy in June 2023 and a month later It's the primary China strategy. Both documents provide a transparent assessment of the growing challenges posed by Russia and China – that’s the danger Previous governments appeared to ignore this.

Germany has already taken steps to implement its latest strategy, particularly towards Russia. Before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Germany imported 55% of its gas from Russia. Until January 2023, It had achieved energy independence from Russia.

Few thought this was economically and politically possible, especially due to Scholz's party had a long-standing “special relationship” with Russia – from the previous chancellor Willy Brandt's “Ostpolitik“, which sought to normalize relations with the Soviet Union and its Eastern European allies, until Gerhard Schröder's friendship with Putin.

Reducing dependence on China represents a greater challenge for Germany, and it remains to be too early to evaluate the impact of the changing times on this important relationship.

The latest China strategy particularly takes an additional step assertive tone: “China has changed. [Hence] We must change our approach to China.” Berlin now emphasizes Reducing the danger of its economic relationship with China, whose raw materials, low-cost factories and a growing middle class had long allowed German automobile manufacturers and other export-oriented firms to flourish.

In 2023, the Scholz government reached a groundbreaking take care of American technology giant Intel to construct one 30 billion euro chip factory in Magdeburg, with the long-term goal of reducing dependence on microchips from Taiwan.

Changing public mood

It will take time to persuade a skeptical German public of the more assertive international role Scholz wants, but there are signs that a very important shift is underway. In one joint survey Published in November 2023 by the Pew Research Center and the Körber Foundation, 60% of respondents agreed that German firms should grow to be more independent of China, even when this results in economic losses; 66% supported continuing military aid to Ukraine; and 72% agreed that Germany should spend at the least 2% of its GDP on defense.

Looking ahead to the NATO summit in July 2024 in Washington, DC, Germany's strategic pivot represents a chance for the US while US policymakers cannot expect that the interests of each nations consistently alignYou have reasons to welcome Germany's realignment with the transatlantic alliance.

Berlin plans permanently station a brigade in Lithuania by 2027 will strengthen NATO's eastern flank. And its increased defense spending is putting pressure on other European countries to also reach the two percent goal. Furthermore, de-risking as an economic strategy requires constructing latest partnerships and pathways, and the U.S. and its European allies could mutually profit by doing so close cooperation on this necessary task.

As the turning point enters its third yr, Germany is facing one a lot of challengesand a few are wondering whether the Scholz government will finish its term.

But even when Scholz's efforts to implement the turnaround fail, the legacy of his strategic pivot is more likely to proceed.