For the Democrats, the actual problem will not be Judge Sotomayor's health, but moderately his election victory

It almost feels like a nasty joke: What did the 78-year-old senator say to the 69-year-old judge?

“EXIT!”

That's exactly what happened recently after I was a U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal from Connecticut suggested that Sonia Sotomayor – the primary Hispanic and third female justice on the Supreme Court — retire so President Joe Biden can appoint a younger and presumably healthier successor.

Blumenthal will not be alone. Fearing a repeat of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death in September 2020 – just weeks before Election Day – progressives like Josh Barro, Mehdi Hasan And Nate Silver We wish to make sure that if Donald Trump does defeat Biden in November, he won’t have one other opportunity to switch a departed liberal judge with a young conservative ideologue.

If Sotomayor is indeed in poor health, she could rightly decide to retire. But such calls will not be a transparent assessment of the health of the judiciary. Blumenthal and the progressive columnists calling for Sotomayor's resignation will not be doctors who’ve reviewed the judiciary's records.

Instead, from my perspective as a political scientist studying the Supreme Courtthese calls are gimmicks actually designed to maintain a Supreme Court seat within the hands of a liberal justice.

Long tenure is an issue

Do not get me incorrect. As I'm writing in my latest book, “A Supreme Court Like No Other: The Growing Gap Between the Justices and the People,” the increasing tenure of judges is a significant issue for American democracy. Confirming younger justices who stay for much longer than before prevents the composition of the court from organically changing.

For example, consider a hypothesis I recommend in my book. Justice Clarence Thomas once said he planned to remain in office until he was 86 because, as he put it, “The Liberals have made my life difficult for 43 years, and I will continue to do so.” making life difficult for them for 43 years.”

If Thomas, who at 75 is the oldest sitting justice, can keep that promise and no younger justice leaves the court before him, there wouldn't be one other emptiness within the U.S. until 2034.

A court could be unchanged for 12 years unprecedented in American history. This is just one in every of the aspects which have deepened the “democratic gap” between the judges and the people, which I define within the book as “the distance between the court and the electoral processes that give it democratic legitimacy.”

Some reforms would prevent judges from remaining on the high bench for long On average, greater than three a long time. But publicly calling on an ideologically oriented judiciary to retire will not be one in every of them. It's unlikely to work, and in Sotomayor's case it was seen that way sexist.

Perhaps more importantly, it misses the purpose.

Win elections, shape the court

When it involves the Supreme Court, progressives now find themselves within the position that conservatives found themselves in for a few years. They are on the surface looking in.

Instead of pushing gimmicks that probably won't work, progressives could follow the principles conservatives learned from liberals of the past era: Bring the argument to the people.

A victory on Election Day is one of the simplest ways for either party to reshape the court. Remember how conservatives dominated the court. In one election after one other, Republican presidential candidates brought conservative voters to the polls by criticizing the Court's most politically controversial decisions, corresponding to: B. Roe, and promised a special type of justice if given the chance to fill a seat.

Democrats often remained silent in regards to the Supreme Court during these campaigns, preferring to have interaction voters on other issues. A Exit survey 2016 This query asked respondents in regards to the importance of Supreme Court appointments in determining their vote for president. 21 percent answered that it was “the” most vital topic for them. And tellingly, 56% of that 21% supported Trump, 15 percentage points greater than those that supported Hillary Clinton.

In fact, when Trump said his name Neil Gorsuch as his first Supreme Court nominee Just days after his inauguration as president, he highlighted that data and said that “millions of voters” had supported him due to his promise to appoint conservatives to the court.

Voters are key

Progressives have already shown that the politically smart response to the conservative Supreme Court and its decisions will not be to pursue one in every of their very own. This is meant to take advantage of the strong dislike of many Americans towards among the court's decisions, especially this one In 2022, Dobbs will determine whether to uproot Roe.

Just weeks after the Dobbs decision Kansas residents overwhelmingly rejected this a proposed constitutional amendment that will have denied women the best to an abortion of their state. In the 2022 midterm elections The expected red wave became a wave when Democrats highlighted the abortion issue. And because the 2024 campaign season heats up, Democrats are prepared Highlight their pro-Roe views to mobilize voters to the ballot boxes.

History shows that parties can win elections after losing the Supreme Court. These parties achieved this by strategically specializing in persuading voters to support them, moderately than on persuading judges to resign.