The sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi is unlikely to drastically change Iran's foreign and domestic policy, however it has left an influence vacuum.
As provided for within the structure, Raisi replaced by his first vice chairman, Mohammad Mokhber, as interim president before presidential elections in 50 days. Raisi was reportedly being groomed to exchange the ageing Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, the final word ruler and decision-maker of the Islamic Republic.
The Iranian supreme leader serves for all times and is the very best religious and political authority within the Islamic Republic. He is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and oversees other vital institutions comparable to the judiciary and state media. He also oversees the Guardian Councilwhich has the facility to veto election candidates and veto parliamentary laws. In this capability, the supreme leader has the ultimate say in foreign policy and various areas of domestic policy.
As a Researcher for Iranian domestic and foreign policyI even have studied the method that determines who’s elected to office or whether or not they succeed. This process has evolved over the nearly 50-year history of the Islamic Republic and is a function of politics somewhat than religion.
The story of succession
Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, there have been two supreme leaders – Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who ruled between 1979 and 1989, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who succeeded him.
Khomeini was not only a revolutionary and charismatic leader, but additionally a Grand Ayatollah and Source of emulationor “marja' al-taqlid”. A Grand Ayatollah is one in all a select group of high-ranking clerics and is taken into account a “sign of God” in Twelver Shiism, the biggest branch of Shiism and the state religion of Iran. These clerics have the authority to make legal decisions for his or her lay followers and for lower-ranking clerics.
Although Khomeini got here to power in February 1979 as a spiritual cleric and revolutionary leader, it took until The Islamic structure was approved by referendum in December This yr, the position or office of Supreme Leader was officially introduced. It was inspired by Khomeini’s concept of Guardianship of the lawyeror the concept a senior cleric should oversee the state in accordance with Islamic law.
The election facade
In 1982 and 1983, when Khomeini was the supreme leader and Khamenei was the third president, this position or office fell under the jurisdiction of the Expert meetingas anchored in Articles 107 and 111 of the Constitution.
The Council of Experts is a body of over 80 members, each serving eight-year terms, with the facility to elect, supervise, and, if obligatory, dismiss the supreme leader. Although members are elected by popular vote, they’re first vetted by the Guardian Council, just like presidential and parliamentary candidates.
It needs to be noted that the members of the Guardian Council are appointed by the Supreme Leader and chief judge or head of the judiciarywho can be appointed by the Supreme Leader. So the Supreme Leader, through the Council, confirms the candidates, who’re then elected to a body that oversees him, making the method anything but free and fair.
As within the last election to the Assembly of Experts in March 2024, historically low voter turnout of about 40%The Guardian Council has disqualified many candidates.
This is especially the case amongst moderates and reformers who are likely to oppose the supreme leader on various issues. For this reason, the Assembly just isn’t known to seriously supervise or challenge of the Supreme Leader, and its meetings remained strictly confidential or closed to the general public.
The successor of 1989
Originally, the supreme leader was to be a grand ayatollah and role model. However, as Khomeini neared the top of his life in 1989, the structure was amended to permit a lower-ranking cleric like Khamenei to take over the office.
AP Photo/Mohammad Sayyad
As a seminary student of Khomeini who was more considering politics than religion, Khamenei was under an Ayatollah. Within the Shiite clerical hierarchy and like other Islamic scholars who studied under an Ayatollah, he was given the title Hojjat al-Islamor “proof of Islam”.
After his appointment as Khomeini’s successor Khamenei’s rank was increased appointed Grand Ayatollah overnight. The reason for the appointment was that Khamenei, like Raisi, was a long-time loyalist and insider of the regime, although he lacked charismatic and non secular authority by Khomeini.
Until 1989, Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri – a distinguished theologian and revolutionary leader – expected to assume the role of supreme leaderHowever, in that yr he was ultimately ignored by Khomeini and later House arrest by Khamenei.
Montazeri succumbed to this fate because he had criticized the regime for its repression, especially for the execution of hundreds of political prisoners in 1988 by a Committee of 4 prosecutorsone in all them was Raisi.
The situation with succession today
With just one precedent, the supreme leader's succession process appears to be anything but formulaic and formalized.
Technically, the Assembly of Experts is chargeable for selecting the long run supreme leader. However, as with other institutions, it’s the supreme leader who ultimately exercises authority over the assembly, not the opposite way around.
In addition, as a result of the intervention of the Guardian Council, the Expert Council and other institutions currently controlled by hardliners.
This scenario also applies to a parliament that approve again Amending the structure and changing the required qualifications of the following leader. It is crucial for Khamenei that the Assembly of Experts and parliament – the Majles – are controlled by hardliners loyal to the regime.
As with Raisi and within the spirit of patronage or clientelism, Hardliners are sometimes appointed They are promoted by the supreme leader to other positions throughout the political and economic establishment. Consequently, they owe their careers to him and are likely to show him their loyalty.
While political outcomes within the Islamic Republic are difficult to predict, the strategy of succession is basically within the hands of the supreme leader and subject to his discretion. As in 1989, dictated or determined determined by Khamenei's political and private preferences somewhat than by religious and ideological principles.
At the identical time, one can say with certainty that the hardliners within the Assembly of Experts and other institutions usually are not monolithic and don’t all follow the supreme leader's agenda. They probably have different opinions about who should succeed him and other issues.
In my view, while the supreme leader will retain the upper hand throughout the system, the number of his successor will likely require consultation and consensus with the hardliners. This shall be crucial to managing a transition made much more delicate by the death of the hardliner president and potential successor.
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