Hurricane forecast points to dangerous Atlantic season in 2024: La Niña and persistently warm oceans together cause violent storms

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, and meteorologists are predicting an exceptionally lively season.

If the The early forecast from the National Hurricane Center, published May 23, is correct, the North Atlantic could see 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and 4 to seven major hurricanes by the tip of November. This is the best variety of named storms in a NOAA preseason forecast.

Other predictions for the season were just as intense. First have a look at Colorado State Universityreleased in April forecast a median of 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts expects 21 named storms.

Colorado State also predicts a whopping 210 accumulated cyclone energy units for 2024, and NOAA is forecasting the second-highest ACE ever. Cumulative cyclone energy is a price of how lively a selected season is by combining the intensity and duration of all storms in a given season. Anything above 103 is taken into account above normal.

These forecasts put the 2024 season on a par with 2020, when so many tropical cyclones formed within the Atlantic that they exhausted the season usual list of storm names: A record variety of 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes formed this yr, yielding a complete of 245 units of cyclone energy.

So what causes a very lively hurricane season within the Atlantic?

I’m a climate scientist who has worked on seasonal hurricane outlooks and studied how climate change affects our ability to predict hurricanes. Forecasters and climatologists search for two predominant clues when assessing the risks of upcoming Atlantic hurricane seasons: a warm tropical Atlantic and a cool tropical eastern Pacific.

Warm Atlantic water can trigger hurricanes

In summer, the Atlantic Ocean warms up, which generally creates favorable conditions for the formation of hurricanes.

Warm sea surface water – about 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius) and above – provides increasing thermal energy or latent heat released through evaporation. This latent heat triggers upward motion, which contributes to the formation of thundercloud clusters and the rotating circulation that may bring these storms together to form rainbands around a vortex.

Ocean heat in 2024 is a serious reason why meteorologists are warning of a busy hurricane season.

The surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean is Breaking heat records for many of the past yr, so the temperatures are already beginning to rise and are expected to stay high in summer. Worldwide, sea temperatures increases with the warming of the planet.

An extended-term temperature pattern referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMOalso comes into play. In summer, the surface of the Atlantic Ocean will be warmer or cooler than usual for several seasons in a row, sometimes even for many years.

Warm phases of the AMO mean more energy for hurricanes, while cold phases help suppress hurricane activity by increasing the strength of the trade winds and vertical wind shear. The Atlantic Ocean has been in a warm phase AMO since 1995, which coincided with an era of highly lively Atlantic Hurricane seasons.

How the Pacific can disrupt Atlantic storms

It could seem strange to search for evidence of Atlantic hurricanes within the Pacific, but temperatures within the Pacific Ocean also play a very important role within the winds that may influence hurricanes.

As within the Atlantic, water temperatures within the Eastern Pacific fluctuate between warm and cold phases, but over shorter periods of time. Scientists call this the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO. The warm phases are called El Niño; Cold periods are called La Niña.

La Niña promotes upward movement of air over the Atlantic, leading to deeper rain clouds and more intense precipitation.

The effects of La Niña also weaken the trade winds, reducing vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear, a difference in wind strength and direction between the upper atmosphere and the atmosphere near the Earth's surface, makes it harder for hurricanes to form and may break apart a storm's vortex.

In contrast, El Niño promotes stronger trade winds and increases wind shear. It also concentrates upwelling and precipitation within the Pacific and triggers a downwelling that favors fair weather over the Atlantic.

El Niño was strong through the winter of 2023/24, but it surely was expected to dissipate by June, meaning less wind shear to maintain hurricanes at bay. La Niña conditions are probably until late summer.

Where ENSO is in its transition can determine how early within the season Tropical storms form – and the way late. A rapid transition to La Niña may indicate an early begin to the season, in addition to an extended season, as La Niña – together with a warm Atlantic Ocean – maintains a hurricane-friendly environment earlier and longer within the yr.

This Ocean Tag Team monitors hurricane activity

The temperatures within the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Control hurricane activity within the Atlantic together. It's like jumping in a bouncy castle or on a trampoline. You get jump should you jump alone, but reach much greater heights if one or two other people jump with you.

When the Eastern Pacific is in its cold phase (La Niña) and the waters within the Atlantic are warm, hurricane activity within the Atlantic tends to be more frequent and the likelihood of more intense and longer lasting storms increases.

The record-breaking 2020 hurricane season was attributable to each La Niña and high temperatures within the Atlanticand that's exactly what forecasters expect for 2024.

It can also be vital to do not forget that storms can intensify even under moderately antagonistic conditions, so long as there’s a warm ocean to drive them. For example, the storm that eventually formed Hurricane Dorian in 2019 was surrounded by dry air because it made its approach to the Caribbean, but quickly intensified into an especially destructive Category 5 hurricane over the Bahamas.

This article has been updated. NOAA officials describe the forecast as the best variety of storms ever predicted.