Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stays missing after the helicopter he was in crashed on May 19, 2024He is an absolute loyalist whose death can be a blow to the country's conservative leadership.
As search and rescue teams – hampered by rain, fog, forests and mountains – looked for wreckage, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told the nation: “should pray” for Raisi’s health.
As Expert on Iran's domestic and foreign policyI imagine that concerns in Tehran may extend beyond the potential human tragedy of the crash. Should Raisi die, it might have a major impact on the Iranian state, which might be consumed by him domestic chaos and regional and international confrontation.
Who is Ebrahim Raisi?
Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Raisi has served as zealous apparatchik of the Islamic Republic and a outstanding protégé of Khameneiwho, as supreme leader, holds absolute power within the Islamic Republic.
Before becoming president in 2021, Raisi held various positions inside the judiciary under the leadership of the Supreme Leader. As a prosecutor and at the top of the Iran-Iraq War In 1988 he sat on the committee that sentenced hundreds of political prisoners to death.
The executions earned him the nickname “theButcher of Tehranafter which subdued him Sanctions by the United States and condemnation by the United Nations and international human rights organizations.
Raisi since 2006 was a member of the expert assemblya body that appoints and oversees the supreme leader.
And although he lacked charisma and eloquence, Raisi, 63, was considered it prepared for fulfillment the 85-year-old Khamenei as supreme leader.
A checkered domestic record
Domestically, Raisi's presidency was an enormous success each the cause and the consequence a crisis of legitimacy and social chaos for the regime.
He won controversially 2021 presidential election after a high variety of candidate disqualifications by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates, and a historically low variety of voters Voter turnout of lower than 50%.
To appease his conservative base, Raisi and his government have reinvigorated the moral police and reimposed religious restrictions on society. These policies led to the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests sparked by the movement Death in police custody by Mahsa Amini in 2022. The demonstrations proved successful largest and longest in the virtually 50-year history of the Islamic Republic. They also led to unprecedented state repression, with over 500 protesters killed and a whole lot more were injured, disappeared and imprisoned. During the protests, Raisi demonstrated his loyalty to the leader and conservative elites by tightening restrictions and crackdowns.
AFP via Getty Images
Meanwhile, Iran's economy continues to suffer under Raisi resulting from a mix of things Government mismanagement and corruptiontogether with US sanctions which have increased in response Tehran's domestic political repression and provocations abroad.
Confrontation for rapprochement
The domestic political turmoil under Raisi's presidency was accompanied by changes in Iran's regional and international role.
As supreme leader, Khamenei has the ultimate say on foreign policy. But Raisi led a state that continued on its path confrontation together with his opponentsespecially the USA and Israel.
And whether by alternative or out of perceived necessity: Tehran has moved further and further away from any idea of rapprochement with the West.
Given the tightened US sanctions, Iran under Raisi is reluctant to revive the nuclear deal.
Instead, Iran has increased uranium enrichment, blocked international inspectors and develop into a nuclear threshold state.
Raisi also continued: ““Look East” policy his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. To this end, he and his government have sought greater rapprochement with China.
Beijing, in turn, has provided an economic lifeline by importing Iranian oil and brokering a diplomatic agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023.
Meanwhile, Iran has soldiered on under Raisi's presidency act as an ally and donor of conflicts against the US and against the West, the provision of combat drones to Russia to be used in Ukraine and the provision of weapons to numerous regional proxies within the Middle East.
Since the war in Gaza began on October 7, 2023, Iran under Khamenei and Raisi has maintained a fragile balance: allowing its regional proxies to act against Israel and the United States while avoiding direct confrontation with each countries, which is conventional are superior enemies.
This balance was temporarily upset when the Islamic Republic directly attacked Israel with drones and missiles for the primary time in history in April in retaliation for an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Although circuitously liable for foreign policy, Raisi has been a key supporter of the Iranian regime because it sought to further distance itself from the established international order and seek alliances with countries similarly hostile to the West.
At the time of the helicopter crash, Raisi and his colleagues were coming back from a dam inauguration ceremony in neighboring Azerbaijan. The ceremony was likely intended as Iran's try to curry favor with Azerbaijan, having previously taken an ambiguous, if not controversial, position within the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – which ended with a convincing victory for Azerbaijan in late 2023.
What would a change of president mean?
If this crash seems to be fatal for Raisi, the death can be a setback for the Islamic Republic; Supreme Leader Khamenei would have lost a long-time loyalist, regime insider and potential successor.
Under the Iranian structure, any death of a president would end in the primary vp serving as interim president. In this case that may mean Mohammad Mokhber, who’s a politician very just like Raisi and who was a politician outstanding member of the Iranian team negotiating arms deals with Moscow.
Iran would need to do the identical to carry presidential elections inside 50 days. It stays to be seen who the supreme leader would approve of as future president and potential successor on this case.
But it is much from certain that Tehran's conservatives will remain on top of things given the inner and external pressures they face.
Domestically, this might take the shape of greater state repression and electoral manipulation. At the regional and international levels, I imagine this might mean forging stronger relationships with emerging allies and pursuing a calculated confrontation with traditional adversaries.
image credit : theconversation.com