“The moment has come for Sudan; “Chaos is our chance to sow the seeds of jihad.” warned Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani, a senior al-Qaeda leader, in a single Manifesto from October 2022.
His words can have seemed premature on the time, but a 12 months later brutal civil war has now plunged Sudan into chaos through which terrorist groups are thriving. The risk of Al-Qaeda is gaining ground in Sudan is now very real and, in my view, endangers not only the country itself, but in addition regional – and possibly global – security.
In April 2023, In between there have been fightings in Sudan the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, an influence vacuum arises which extremists desperately need to fill.
At the identical time, the Rapid Support Forces – a gaggle that developed under and was once allied with him It was Sudan's former al-Qaeda supporter Omar al-Bashir tightens his grip in strategic areas equivalent to Darfur and southern Khartoum.
As a matter of fact, each the paramilitary group and the armed forces They are accused of recruiting Islamist fighters. fire up fears that the civil war – whatever the winner – can be a base for extremist groups.
As a Defense policy researcher and counterterrorism expertI worry that Sudan is prone to becoming an al-Qaeda stronghold – and a possible base for staging attacks on the United States and its allies. A possible takeover of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan may very well be a mirror image in pre-9/11 Afghanistan, where the Taliban were on top of things facilitated the rise of al-Qaeda.
Al-Qaeda members on the hunt Opportunities to realize what they may not within the Middle East, they already are Pay attention to calls to the top to Sudan.
Decades of turmoil and extremism
Sudan Civil War predates the present fighting by a long time. It ignited in 1989 when al-Bashir seized power and allied the nation with radical Islamist ideologies. He imposed Sharia law and in 1991 protected al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden. Under al-Bashir's regime, bin Laden arrange training camps and expanded al-Qaeda's financial network. lay the inspiration stone for the terrorist attacks of September eleventh.
Sudan faces international sanctions for its support of terrorism Bin Laden expelled in 1996.
But al-Bashir's sponsorship of the Janjaweed militia group, the architects of the 2003 genocide in Darfur, further cemented his connection to Islamist extremists. Under surveillance, al-Bashir renamed the Janjaweed as Rapid Support Forces in 2013 and appointed former Janjaweed member Mohammed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo as their leader maintain their brutal tactics.
The 2021 coup, orchestrated by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Hemeti of the Rapid Support Forces, soon became one Power struggle between the 2 men, sparking the present conflict in Sudan.
Today, with Hemeti on the helm, the paramilitary group continues its campaign of repression in West Darfur and is collaborating in alleged ethnic cleansing against the indigenous Masalit people.
Meanwhile a Prison attack in April 2023, which the The Sudanese army blames the Rapid Support Forces rebelsfacilitated the escape of al-Bashir's allies, although the previous president stays hospitalized under guard.
Sudan at the middle of jihad
Given the conflicts within the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the West could also be overlooking the crisis in Sudan and the potential it holds for al-Qaeda, a gaggle that has long harbored ambitions to return to Sudan.
Despite his expulsion, bin Laden continued to emphasise the importance of Sudan in his plans for global jihad. This was evident in his 2006 tape And Diary entries through which he described Sudan because the central base of operations.
A 2023 publication by Al-Qaeda key figure Ibrahim al-Qussi titled “Fragments from the History of Al-Qaeda” revealed that bin Laden led an investment $12 million for jihad in Sudan alone, underscoring the region's continued importance to al-Qaeda's goals.
Sudan's Attraction to Extremists goes beyond his connections to bin Laden. As a strategic bridge between North and sub-Saharan Africa, Sudan is a crucial location for Islamist extremists searching for to expand their influence within the region.
After 2021 US deduction from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power, al-Qaeda reestablished its presence within the country, reopening of coaching camps and madrassas.
However, al-Qaeda had long since developed from a centralized organization in Afghanistan right into a decentralized network with branches worldwide – from the Arabian Peninsula to the Indian subcontinent to sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel region.
Historical ties, recent ambitions
The latest developments underscore al-Qaeda's increased give attention to Sudan and are driven by detailed information Expansion plans the Sudanese al-Qaeda leader Abu Hudhaifa al-Sudani. A former Bin Laden worker with a infamous background In Afghanistan and Iraq, al-Sudani issued one one other call for jihad.
After the outbreak of the civil war in Sudan, al-Sudani's manifesto “Now the Fighting has Come: War Messages to the Mujahideen in Sudan” was published in 2022 prescribes a military strategy of targeted attacks and guerrilla warfare across Sudan, but in addition a vision of a jihad stretching from Dongola within the north of the country to Darfur within the south, with Khartoum as its command center.
Al-Qaeda further expressed its threat in a message marking the twenty second anniversary of the 2001 attacks on the United States. promising“It is only a matter of time before the next attack eclipses the horrors of 9/11.”
This statement, coupled with The group escalates Presence in conflict zones equivalent to Niger and Libya actively positions it to focus on U.S. interests worldwide. Actually a 2022 United Nations report suggested that al-Qaeda was planning high-profile attacks, possibly at sea.
What an extremist takeover would mean
Al-Qaeda's potential in resource-rich Sudan shouldn’t be underestimated. Historically, the group's operations from resource-limited Afghanistan have been devastating; in Sudan, together with his Abundance of oil, gold and fertile landtheir capabilities may very well be greatly increased.
Sudan offers a lucrative basis for the one who has the ability. Forging ties with either side of the civil war would undoubtedly be of enormous financial profit to al-Qaeda if either side prevails, as al-Bashir's rule did a generation before.
And Sudan's access to the Red Sea potentially makes it an excellent greater threat than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
Capturing a Sudanese stronghold could strengthen al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen, Somalia and the Sahel, exacerbate regional conflicts and threaten key trade routes within the Red Sea. Interestingly, a United Nations report from July 2022 revealed this The Yemen branch of al-Qaeda had been expanding its maritime capabilities.
The resurgence of al-Qaeda capabilities within the region may lead to increased piracy, militarized blockades and unregulated arms flows, escalating tensions within the region and resulting in greater geopolitical unrest.
But because the United States directs its resources and a spotlight toward wars in Europe and the Middle East and countering China, Sudan has seemingly slipped down its priority list. To make matters worse, US reactions are linked to the conflicting interests of its Gulf allies Support for various factions within the Sudanese civil war.
With scarce resources, overwhelmed by competing threats and bored with a long time within the Middle East, the United States is ill-positioned to counter al-Qaeda's expansion into Sudan.
But as Sudan increasingly becomes a world terror center, the stakes couldn't be higher. Historical examples equivalent to the autumn of Afghanistan to the Taliban and the rise of the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria illustrate the potential costs.
image credit : theconversation.com