War games risk bringing unrest to the waters because the Philippines, encouraged by the US, faces Beijing at sea

U.S. Marines joined their Filipino counterparts May 5, 2024 Mock battle in a meaningful location: a small, distant area just 100 miles off the southern tip of the disputed island of Taiwan.

The combat exercise is an element of the week-long exercise Train your shoulders Sea, air and ground troops from the Philippines and the United States got here together, with Australia and France also participating in some exercises.

With a planned “sea strike” on May eighth, through which a The decommissioned ship is sunk The aim is to form a united front against China, which Washington and Manila perceive as a threat to the region. Balikatan is Tagalog for “shoulder to shoulder.”

Joint naval exercises between the Philippines and the United States have develop into an annual event. But when International relations expertI imagine this yr's exercises mark a turning point in South China Sea regional policy.

For the primary time, warships are participating within the exercise ventured beyond the 12 mile limit which delimits the territorial waters of the Philippines. This expands military operations into the grey area where the Exclusive economic zone of the Philippines rubs up against the territory claimed by China and designated by its “China.”Nine-dash line.”

Also for the primary time within the USA deployed a sophisticated mobile launcher for medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles of a kind that was banned under the now-defunct ban Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Additionally, the Philippine Navy is showcasing its latest acquisition, a South Korean-built missile frigate.

The South China Sea has long been the source of maritime disputes between China, which claims most of its waters, and countries similar to Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. Additionally, increased tensions over the status of Taiwan — an area the Biden administration has pledged to defend militarily within the event of a Chinese invasion — have made the South China Sea much more strategically necessary.

Containment at sea

The latest joint exercises come amid two developments that might have some bearing on the longer term trajectory of tensions within the South China Sea. First this The Philippines has develop into increasingly more self-confident to counter China's claims within the region; and second, the US is increasingly concerned about it Building regional alliances as a part of a method to contain China.

The alliance between the Philippines and the United States is more robust than ever. After a brief Interval during Rodrigo Duterte's 2016-22 presidencyUS warships and military aircraft are again operating from bases within the Philippines.

Joint naval patrols resumed in early 2023. At the identical time, Manila granted US troops unprecedented access to facilities within the northern Batanes Islandswhich have develop into the main target of current joint operations.

Meanwhile, Washington has develop into more vocal in its condemnation of China's challenges to the Philippines.

U.S. officials had rigorously avoided promising to guard the far-flung islands, atolls and reefs that Manila claimed as its own seven a long time after the agreement was signed Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines in 1951.

As recently as March 2019, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed that the The contract covers the complete geographical area over which the Philippines asserts its sovereignty.

In February 2023, Presidents Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Joe Biden doubled the variety of bases available to the US military within the Philippines. This May, the two leaders confirmed that the Mutual Defense Treaty applies to armed attacks occurring “anywhere in the South China Sea.”

Cause waves, rock the boat

Closer relations with the US have been accompanied by more combative behavior on the a part of the Philippines. In May 2023, the Philippine Coast Guard Introduction of demarcation buoys around Whitsun Reef – Place of intensive discussion with China's maritime militia one yr ago.

Three months later, reports circulated that Filipino marines were planning on doing this Build everlasting outposts near the hotly contested Scarborough Shoal. And a Philippine Coast Guard ship with the commander of the country's armed forces on board, approached Scarborough Shoal in Novemberbefore being forced to retreat by Chinese maritime militia ships.

Then, in January 2024, the Philippines broke its adherence to a ban on constructing structures on disputed territory that was a part of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties within the South China Seafrom Installation of electronic monitoring Equipment on Thitu Island, which lies behind Scarborough Shoal in the guts of a group of disputed formations. Plans were then announced to construct water desalination plants on Thitu, Nanshan Island and Second Thomas Shoal to enable the location of everlasting garrisons on these isolated outposts.

Manila has continued to claim its maritime rights and said the armed forces would achieve this Support for exploration and mining activities within the exclusive economic zone.

This was followed by other acts that could possibly be viewed as provocative in Beijing, including this Deployment of a Philippine Navy corvette on the nearby island of Palawan and a Joint overflight of Philippine fighter aircraft and a US Air Force B-52 heavy bomber.

A series of Chinese answers

It is obvious that the deepening of Philippines-US relations has given Manila the boldness to undertake a series of combat operations against China. The query is: for what purpose?

A more assertive approach by the Philippines could find yourself contributing to the US technique to deter Beijing from expanding its presence within the South China Sea and setting in motion what many in Washington fear: an invasion of Taiwan.

However, it is feasible that increasing recalcitrance from the Philippines will spur Beijing to act more aggressively and reduce the prospects for regional stability.

As the Filipino-American alignment has strengthened, Beijing has also strengthened increased the variety of warships It is deployed within the South China Sea and has escalated naval operations around Thitu Island, Second Thomas Shoal and Iroquois Reef – all of which the Philippines considers its territory.

At the start of March 2024, two Chinese research ships moved to Benham Rise, a resource-rich shelf on the east coast of the Philippines, outside the South China Sea. Weeks later, a Philippine Coast Guard cutter surveyed a sandbar near Thitu was harassed not only from Chinese coast guard and maritime militia ships, but in addition from a People's Liberation Army Navy missile frigate, which for the primary time launched a helicopter to shadow the cutter.

Washington has taken no public steps to chill tensions between Manila and Beijing. Rather, Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented full support for “our ironclad defense commitments” during a mid-March 2024 stopover in Manila.

Marcos is convinced of US support increased the rhetoric, announcing that Manila would reply to any unrest from Beijing by implementing a “countermeasure package that is proportionate, deliberate and sensible.” “Filipinos,” he added, “do not back down.”

According to Marcos, such an approach was now feasible since the U.S. and its regional allies offered to “help us with what the Philippines needs to protect and secure our sovereignty, our sovereign rights and our jurisdiction.”

The danger is that the Philippines will develop into increasingly more reckless in its dealings with China because it becomes more reliant on US support.

Rather than deterring China from further expansion, the tightening Philippines-US rapprochement and associated Philippine assertiveness may only increase Beijing's concerns about its continued access to the South China Sea – through which virtually all of its energy imports and most of its exports flow .

And there may be little reason to imagine that Washington can deter an emboldened Manila from continuing its path of confrontation with China within the South China Sea.

For Beijing, the prospect is that the Philippines will likely be encouraged to pursue energetic strategic partnerships with Australia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and, most problematic of all, Taiwan makes the situation much more dangerous.