What could the death of President Raisi mean for stability in Iran and beyond? Questions and answers from experts

Who was Ebrahim Raisi?

Raisi was a dedicated servant of Iran's former Supreme Leader (the country's highest authority), Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Raisi rose through the judicial system within the Eighties and rose to prominence as a member of the Supreme Court “Death Committee” Imposing the death penalty on hundreds of prisoners in 1988 at the tip of Iran's war with Iraq.

The exact variety of those sentenced to death is just not known. But human rights groups have estimated this cautiously 5,000 men and ladies were carried out in a fashion described as Crimes against humanityRaisi denied his role within the death sentences, but in addition said they were justified because of a non secular decision by Khomeini.

He also served as Deputy Minister of Justice, Attorney General after which Minister of Justice. He created the image of a pacesetter who cracked down on corruption while also working to purge opponents of the regime. In 2016 he was too appointed appointed by the Supreme Leader to oversee the Astan Quds Razavi religious foundation, which controls tens of billions of dollars.

In June 2021 there was Raisi installed as president within the Iranian elections, the handover of the elected leadership to the hardliners. The result wasn't a giant surprise. Raisi was considered the candidate of the present Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the clerical establishment sought to advertise his election and hinder challengers.

How difficult is the lack of Raisi for the regime?

Raisi was considered loyal to Khamenei and sometimes took on the role of a scapegoat to assist the supreme leader avoid criticism. Because of this loyalty, Raisi was mentioned as a possible successor to the Supreme Leader, although he was viewed by many in Iran's political system as unexceptional and even weak.

But the lack of Raisi alone has little impact on the Iranian system. He was largely a placeholder, representing the needs of the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guard and the hardliners.

The greater challenge is to interchange Raisi with a minimum of infighting throughout the Iranian regime, maintain the ostracism of reformists and centrists, and suppress any protests.

After the crash, Khamenei assured Iranians that there can be “no disruption to the country’s work.” How true is that this claim?

Given the series of nationwide protests that erupted following the disputed results of Iran's 2009 presidential election, the Supreme Leader's statement is best understood as a call for Iranians to avoid “disturbance.”

Contrary to many expectations, then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the clear winner. followed Thousands of individuals were arbitrarily arrested and dozens were killed on the streets or died in custody.

Khamenei's rhetoric can be an “all is well” proclamation that ignores the intense economic problems and regional tensions facing Iran. Iran's economy has been in a precarious situation for years because of a mixture of mismanagement and sanctions. The currency is at a historical lowhas lost 93% of its value since 2018. Inflation stays officially over 40% and unofficially much higher. And unemployment is high, especially among the many younger generation.

The regime continues to suppress protests through detention and intimidation. But calls for reform are still widespread. They were shaken up by the regime tough crackdown in regards to the mandatory hijab. Iranian authorities have tried to suppress each centrists and reformists, but are facing backlash from the general public criticismincluding that of former President Hassan Rouhani.

Who will replace Raisi?

According to Iran's structure, if a president dies in office, the primary vice chairman takes office for a period of fifty days, with the approval of the supreme leader. At the tip of the transition period, a brand new presidential election will happen. Khamenei has confirmed that the primary vice chairman, Mohammad Mokhber, might be the acting president of the country until the elections.

The process is an expedited version of the usual procedure, through which a 12-member guardian reviews all candidates and disqualifies those deemed unacceptable. This should ensure competition between a hardliner and a conservative and block any distinguished centrist or reformist.

Different factions inside the federal government will compete for the supreme leader's favor. Raisi's occupation signaled the advance of hardliners throughout the regime and pushed out the conservatives. However, there’s currently no clear hardliner favorite.

Meanwhile, the probably conservative is the parliamentary speaker and former presidential candidate Mohammad Qalibaf. He has been at the highest of Iranian politics for 25 years. But he has also failed in two presidential campaigns and is unacceptable to many hardliners.

What could Raisi's death mean for stability within the Middle East and beyond?

The regime will wish to avoid further unrest throughout the regime because it rearranges the chairs of power. This includes the alternative of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who had played a vital role in attempting to present the case of Tehran to the world and find ways to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.

The open query is whether or not Israel, embroiled in its war in Gaza and the intense domestic tensions surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will return to attacks on Iranian interests, resembling the targeted attacks Assassinations the Tehran commanders in Syria and Hezbollah officials In Lebanon.