What early 2024 polls reveal about voters of color and the GOP — and it's not nearly Donald Trump

By the top of the winter of 2024, Donald Trump's return to the forefront of the Republican presidential nomination is obvious a surprising trend in the previous president's support base: his increasing popularity under black And Latino voters.

Several surveys suggest that there are even that many 23% of black voters And 46% of Latino voters could solid their vote for Trump.

If the polls are correct, these numbers are removed from that 6% black And 28% of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2016 and who 8% of black voters and 32% of Latino voters who voted for Trump in 2020.

In the face of Trump long record from racist And xenophobic So, in accordance with comments, the query is why Trump's support amongst voters of color has increased through the years.

A “racial realignment”?

Two explanations have emerged to clarify this Trump's growth for support amongst voters of color.

The first is predicated on the wrong assumption, advocated by some Democratic strategists that the increasing racial and ethnic diversity of the U.S. electorate would robotically profit Democratic candidates. This assumption rests on the concept voters of color are inherently progressive on issues similar to education, social services, health care and criminal justice reform.

According to this line of pondering, Trump's poll numbers are largely the results of bad messaging from Democrats – a mistake to remind voters of color that their interests align with Joe Biden, not Trump.

The second explanation is that there are voters of color conservative by naturespecifically Working-class black and Latino menwho discover more strongly the political right on topics like immigration, law and order And Cultural conservatism.

“Many of America’s nonwhite voters have long held far more conservative views than their voting behavior suggests,” says data analyst John Burton-Murdoch argued within the Financial Times in March 2024. “The migration we are seeing today is not so much because Democrats are becoming disillusioned, but because Republicans are realizing they voted for the wrong party.”

Although few other analysts go that far, Burton-Murdoch concluded the numbers represent a “racial realignment.”

GOP appeals to cultural identities

Underlying each interpretations is identical flawed assumption that politics could be reduced to an easy exercise in consumer and retail branding.

Polls provide snapshots of how individual voters feel about specific issues at specific time limits. However, they fail to capture the complex forces that shape the varied political realities of the United States An estimated 35 million voters the colour.

More essential to understanding the apparent racist political shifts are the efforts being made on the bottom in local communities, particularly by right-wing activists, who appeal to a way of racial division insulation, economic uncertainty And widespread distrust In the federal government.

To see these efforts in motion, in December 2023 we attended America Fest, an annual conference in Phoenix sponsored by Turning point USAA right-wing organization focuses on students and young adults. About half of the 13,000 participants were under 35, including a small but notable number of individuals of color.

At the conference, the main target of the group's messages was on bringing together individuals who say they’re frustrated with current political and cultural life.

These appeals, which attempted to use widespread cynicism amongst young voters, were used across the group's social media and public relations channels. This includes utensils for such efforts the group's online activism kits which feature posters and pins with slogans similar to “Deep in the heart of freedom,” “Femininity is not a costume,” “Be proud of my country,” and “I support this.”

Cultural refrains that mock gay and transgender people and support the best to bear arms are is becoming increasingly popular on the best.

On one other front, the Libre Initiativea libertarian organization funded by the conservative billionaire Koch brotherslaunched a cross-state promoting campaign in August 2023 targeting Latino voters and blaming Biden for it economic uncertainty Many of them face the challenge.

With six months left within the presidential campaign, these and other Republican efforts to draw voters of color look like working, polls thus far show.

But the end result of the election is anything but certain.

What the polls reveal, as we see it, is the GOP's try to win the support of an increasingly diverse electorate – not through appeals to political or ideological interests, but through forging connections often based on identity, community and a way of belonging.

While polls can provide some useful information and clues, it can be crucial for American voters to stay cautious when using them as a catch-all explanation for these complex and ongoing racial dynamics.