President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a neck-and-neck race within the three states almost definitely to come to a decision the presidential election.
A Florida Atlantic University survey The poll released Tuesday showed a strikingly close election, with 46 percent of likely voters voting for Trump and 45 percent for Biden. In every state, the candidates are one or two percentage points apart, making the race too close to think about either of them the frontrunner.
Nearly half of voters surveyed within the crucial swing states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – imagine Trump is guilty of Criminal charges This led to his conviction on 34 counts last week.
The poll, which began after the jury verdict was announced, found that voters are divided on whether Trump should go to prison, largely based on their political affiliation.
The overwhelming majority of Democrats imagine Trump deserves a jail sentence, but one in six think he mustn’t.
Most Republicans said he didn’t deserve a jail sentence – but one in seven said Trump needs to be locked up.
The polls also found that some respondents said they might vote for Trump in the autumn, but additionally think he should go to prison for the crimes he was convicted of.
Among voters who said they plan to vote for Trump this fall, 10 percent said they imagine he’s guilty of crimes for which a New York jury found him guilty, and seven percent said he “deserves” prison time for the convictions.
Critical conditions
In all three states combined – all northern industrialized countries whose populations have many similarities – 46% of likely voters are for Trump and 45% for Biden, based on FAU pollsters.
Another 4% said they might vote for an additional candidate and 5% said they were undecided.
FAU has conducted polls in these three states because they’re crucial to the consequence of the Biden-Trump duel.
“Neither side currently has a significant advantage in any of the three states,” said Dukhong Kim, a political scientist at FAU, in a written statement.
All are swing states and together award 44 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Florida, where 30 electoral votes will likely be awarded this yr, was a swing state for a long time where any party could win. The party has now change into far more Republican.
Political scientist Kevin Wagner of FAU said the election campaign is so exciting that the movement of two to 3 percent of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could resolve the subsequent president.
In 2020, Biden won the three states by narrow majorities: Michigan with 2.8%, Pennsylvania with 1.2% and Wisconsin with lower than 1%.
Guilty or not
Nearly half (48%) of voters surveyed within the three states imagine Trump is guilty of the crime he’s accused of in New York.
Another 38% said he was not guilty and 14% said they didn’t know.
There were some notable differences:
- Among men, the opinion was evenly divided: 44% said he was guilty, 43% said no. Among women, the opinion was quite different: 52% said he was guilty, only 33% said no.
- Voters age 50 and older were more likely than younger voters to say Trump was guilty (52 percent to 40 percent), while 8 percent said they didn't know. Among voters under 50, 42 percent said he was guilty, while 35 percent said he was not. A much higher share (23 percent) said they didn't know.
- People’s assessments corresponded to their political affiliation.
Democrats (79%) overwhelmingly said Trump was guilty, and Republicans (66%) overwhelmingly said no.
In each party there have been individuals who went against the grain: 12 percent of Democrats said Trump was not guilty, and 18 percent of Republicans said Trump was guilty.
Republicans (16%) were more likely than Democrats (9%) to say they didn’t know whether Trump was guilty of the costs.
Among independents, 50% said Trump was guilty, 31% said no, and 19% said they didn’t know.
“Trump’s legal threat could mobilize part of his base,” said Wagner, co-director of PolCom Lab at FAUa collaboration between the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and the Department of Political Science. “Most of his supporters do not believe he is guilty, while Biden's voters overwhelmingly believe he has committed crimes.”
Wagner said the 18 percent of Republicans who think Trump is guilty is notable. “If they stay home, that could matter in November, especially in close states like these.”
Lock him up
Voters were divided on the query of whether Trump “deserves prison time” for his crimes, with opposition to imprisonment outweighing support for it.
According to the poll, 46% of voters said he doesn’t deserve prison time, 40% said he deserves prison time and 14% said they have no idea.
Men strongly opposed a jail sentence (53% to 37%). Women narrowly voted in favor of a jail sentence (44% to 40%).
Seventy percent of Democrats said he deserves prison, 17% said no, and 13% said they didn't know.
77% of Republicans said he doesn’t deserve prison time, 15% said he deserves prison time, and eight% said they have no idea.
Independents were in the center: 41% were against a jail sentence, 36% were for it and 23% didn’t know.
Direct comparison
In all three states, each candidate had relative strengths and weaknesses:
- Among women, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points and amongst men, Trump was ahead by 9 percentage points.
- Among voters aged 18 to 34, Trump was ahead by 8 percentage points. Among voters over 50, Biden was ahead by 2 percentage points.
- 83 percent of Democrats said they might vote for Biden. 82 percent of Republicans said they might vote for Trump. Among independents, the split was even: 41 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Biden.
In Michigan, where 15 electoral votes are up for grabs, the poll found that 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 46 percent support Trump. (In a bigger sample of all Michigan voters, they were tied at 45 percent.)
In Pennsylvania, where 19 electoral votes are awarded, the poll found Trump had 47% and Biden 45% amongst likely voters. (In the larger sample of all Pennsylvania voters, the poll also found Trump ahead by 2 percentage points.)
In Wisconsin, where 10 electoral votes are awarded, Trump had the support of 41 percent of likely voters, while Biden had 40 percent. (In the larger sample of all Wisconsin voters, Biden was ahead by 2 percentage points.)
RFK Jr.
When voters could make a choice from Biden, Trump or anti-vaccination campaigner Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who’s running as an independent candidate, there was no significant difference within the consequence.
Looking in any respect three states together, Biden was at 42% amongst likely voters, Trump at 41%, Kennedy at 8%, with 3% saying they might vote for an additional candidate and 6% undecided.
Age makes a giant difference. Kennedy had the support of 17 percent of those under 50 and three percent of those over 50.
Party affiliation didn’t play a serious role in the outcomes. Kennedy was supported by 6% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans and 16% of independent voters.
Problems
Voters within the three states overwhelmingly (37%) said the economy was their most significant campaign issue. Another 18% said immigration was crucial issue, and 15% said abortion. The percentages for the opposite issues weren’t in double digits.
“In these swing states, economic concerns continue to trump social issues,” said Luzmarina Garcia, a political scientist at FAU, in a written evaluation. “While the economy is the most important issue for voters across party lines, we see a stark divide when it comes to secondary priorities.”
According to the poll, 30 percent of Trump voters consider immigration to be the second most significant issue, in comparison with just 5.5 percent of Biden voters. Conversely, 1 / 4 of Biden supporters consider abortion access to be very essential, in comparison with just 5 percent of Trump supporters.
positive print
The Survey of two,068 adults The study, “Life in the USA,” was conducted on May 30 and 31, after the guilty verdicts were announced, by Mainstreet Research for the PolCom Lab at Florida Atlantic University.
The poll used an internet panel and automatic phone calls to succeed in other voters. The margin of error is about three percentage points.
However, for smaller groups, akin to people in each of the three states, Republicans and Democrats, or men and girls, the margin of error could be higher since the sample size is smaller.
Anthony Man may be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and may be found at @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook, and Mastodon.
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