Populism can weaken democracy, however it is on the rise – here's what causes this political movement and the way it could possibly be weakened

There is a widespread view that populism is on the rise. from the United States and Türkiye to India and Hungary.

What drives this movement?

Populism is a political ideology the “people” are positioned as a morally just, good group in society, in contrast to other people who find themselves elitist and alien to society. Politicians like the previous President Donald Trump has used this general approach to advance their rise to power – and maintain their popularity amongst their supporters.

Trump, for instance described his political campaign in June 2024 as “an epic struggle to liberate our nations from all dark forces that seek to destroy them.” These “dark forces” typically include all the pieces from the media and international organizations to mainstream science and immigrants.

And Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s populist prime minister since 2010, often accused international groups resembling Foreign non-profit organizations for Interference in Hungarian politics and act against the interests of the country.

The European Parliament decided in 2022 that Hungary can now not be considered a democracy.

In its most radical, authoritarian form Populism poses a threat to democracyIt polarises societies and undermines trust in experts.

However, populist politicians remain attractive because they promise to offer power back to the people.

But they often deliver something completely different from what they promise. They are inclined to Exacerbate problems resembling gender and ethnic inequalitywithout closing the gap between wealthy and poor.

I even have dedicated a big a part of my profession the evaluation of populist movements, each as a politician within the Hungarian parliament in opposition to Orbán’s regime and today as a scientist.

I learned one thing from this unique experience: to guard democracy from populism, it’s essential to first understand its causes.

What is behind populism

Many journalists and political scientists consider populism as “cultural setback” by conservative white men who fear the lack of their privileges in an increasingly diverse world.

Immigration, race and religion are three issues which can be often central to the politics of many populists. There are also economic aspects resembling a poor economy, international trade, industrial robots and artificial intelligence, which some experts imagine also contribute to the rise of populism.

This is because the event of artificial intelligence, for instance, has led to a decline in stable jobs in industries resembling manufacturing, which once provided the working class with a path to social advancement.

Many experts and academics still doubt that economics plays a major role in populism. This argument takes various forms, but generally boils all the way down to statements like this one made by a distinguished political scientist in regards to the 2016 US presidential election: “Not economic hardship, but status threat explains the 2016 presidential election.”

In other words, the 2016 presidential election was – not less than based on this argument – ​​influenced more by white voters’ fear of losing their dominant position in society than by their financial problems.

It is the economy

My recent research shows that behind the growing support for populism lies one other source of fear: people’s concern about Economic uncertainty is a key consider populism in Europe, North America and Latin America.

For example, Americans who lost their manufacturing jobs within the 2010s were particularly prone to leave the Democratic Party and vote for Trump in 2016.

There is evidence that individuals’s attitudes against immigration also driven by their fear about their very own job.

Research also shows that Europeans who’ve lost their jobs or whose income has fallen, for instance resulting from competition from low-wage immigrants, usually tend to feel threatened by globalizationThey were also particularly prone to turn to nationalism and vote for right-wing populist candidates throughout Western Europe.

Populist voters within the USA

Nevertheless, studies show that you simply cannot tar all populist voters with the identical brush. Populist voters are a heterogeneous group with different motivations and concerns.

Artificial intelligence, for instance, threatens jobs more within the USA And in Western Europe than in Eastern Europe, which is why Americans and Western Europeans are more concerned about this issue than Eastern Europeans.

Another factor is breed. White voters with financial difficulties may feel that immigrants and folks of color are liable for filling existing jobs – and thus for his or her economic problems.

However, populism is just not only a matter for conservative white men, despite the favored support Trump enjoys. amongst many on this group. Democratic politicians within the USA have had increasing difficulty gaining the support of the working class with no college degree, including a growing variety of black voters.

Black Voters still generally vote DemocratBut the Democratic Party has seen a decline of about 28 percentage points Black voters between 2020 and 2024Most of them switched to the Republicans.

The The realignment of the electorate has been going down since 2008When Trump was elected in 2016, he not only increased his party's support among the many white working class by 4 percentage points in comparison with the defeat of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012, he also increased support amongst black working class voters by the identical amount. This shift suggests that Democrats have an issue with the working class, not the white working class. Economic aspects, not only racial identity, are a significant component driving voters away from the Democratic Party.

Not all populist voters are extremists

Many media outlets are inclined to concentrate on the populist electorate, who’re masters at generating outrage with what one populism researcher calls “bad manners.” In this context, this implies, amongst other things, that they use inflammatory language or make politically incorrect statements to attract attention to their cause.

However, essentially the most successful populist political movements in countries like Italy and Poland have grown by appealing to voters who’re concerned about real basic needs. Combine the core group of populist voters motivated by culture and racism and an outer group of voters who aren’t primarily motivated by these issues.

Finally, voters’ support for populist politicians also is dependent upon how well they’re interested in non-populist, established politicians. Including socio-economic measures resembling the expansion unemployment insurancecan, for instance, help to ward off a populist upsurge.

The way ahead

There isn’t any universal answer to the challenge of populism. For example: Job guarantee programs They help to offer stable jobs and thus reduce the economic uncertainty that usually feeds populist sentiments.

In an economy dominated by gig work and frequent movement of employees from one job to a different, portable advantages The advantages that employees carry from job to job – giving them continued access to medical insurance, retirement plans and other advantages – may also help ease the fears that drive people to populism.

Promoting reasonably priced housing and Control of rents may promote more stable living conditions.

I believe that confronting right-wing populism requires a concerted effort to tackle the economic insecurity that fuels this global phenomenon. The path to achieving this may increasingly be difficult, but the choice – a world by which democracy is eroded and societies polarised – is much more frightening.