Modern US politics has largely been viewed through the lens of a two-party power structure: Democrats and Republicans. But this will be changing. Increasingly, the media, pollsters, pundits and campaigns themselves are specializing in independent votersand say they may crucial for the result of Presidential elections 2024.
But even amongst political experts, there may be an incredible deal of disagreement about what number of such voters there are. It's possible that some voters call themselves independents but actually just have weaker political preferences than party diehards while still remaining loyal to 1 party or the opposite. And some independent voters change their political identification from one election cycle to the following. That makes it hard to say who’s an independent voter and the way lots of them there are.
Most of what political scientists like Me Knowledge about independents comes from survey data.
While it could seem easy to have a look at state voter registration records, it shouldn’t be very useful: Many states require Voters must state their party affiliation when registering, but they may declare that they don’t belong to any party.
And in some states, voters must join a serious party to vote in primaries. But others don't. And some, like my home state of Arizona, prevent individuals who register as independents from Voting in presidential primaries However, they’re allowed to take part in primaries for other races so long as they request a ballot from one among the parties.
These different rules mean that the numbers in government records almost actually don’t reflect the true variety of independent voters, they usually aren’t reliable indicators of how people actually vote.
Researchers have two good sources which have tracked political affiliation over a protracted time period: Gallup pollsthe famous polling institute, and American National Election Studiesa collaboration of universities. However, the variety of independents these polls cover is determined by how pollsters classify independents, they usually may not have in mind how the political preferences of certain voters change over time.
A 3-way query
The Gallup poll, which dates from the Nineteen Thirtiestracks which political party American voters support by asking them the query: “In politics, as of todaydo you think about yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?” The voter's answer will reflect his or her current situation and will differ from the party affiliation she or he could have indicated when registering to vote – and it can also differ from his or her past voting behavior.
According to Gallup, political independents will probably be the most important political voting bloc in 2023, with an annual average of 43% of American voters claiming that designation. Independents first outnumbered supporters of each major parties in 1991 and have remained in the bulk since then, aside from 2004-2008. March 2023As of 2018, independent voters made up 49% of U.S. adults, greater than the 2 major parties combined.
A 7-way query
The scientific classification of voters as independent goes back to the work of Angus Campbell and his colleagues, who first “The American voterin 1960. The surveys these researchers analyzed for the book are considered by many to be the gold standard in the sector.
The source of those surveys was the American National Election Studies Programa collaboration between several research universities. Although officially founded in 1978, the ANES has had continuous survey data on the US electorate since 1948. The survey is generally conducted every two years, but occasionally every 4 years.
Since 1952, researchers and pollsters have typically asked independents a follow-up query to find out whether respondents would favor one party over the opposite in the event that they had to decide on. Most independents said they leaned toward either the Democrats or the Republicans.
These surveys first ask respondents to discover themselves on a three-way scale – Democrat, Republican or Independent. But for Independents, they go deeper and check out to put the respondent on a seven-point scale between “strong Democrat” and “strong Republican,” with five response options in between, to supply a more nuanced view of individuals's political preferences.
How many slim ones?
In the Nineties, nonetheless, the concept of nuance amongst independent voters was subjected to scientific scrutiny. The 1992 book “The myth of the independent voter“ argued that there really were only the three essential categories and that the majority individuals who said they were independent really preferred a celebration or the opposite.
If independents who indicate a preference for a selected party are counted as supporters of that party, the general proportion of independents is small – about 10% of the entire electorate. This figure has remained kind of constant because the Fifties. About two thirds of independents are likely to favor one among the candidates of the 2 major political parties.
People stop being independent – and begin
However, other scientistsincluding Medisagree with the claim that the majority independents actually lean toward one party. We consider that their voting behavior is more volatile over time.
Some researchers have argued that independents’ answers to the query of whether or not they lean toward the Democrats or the Republicans significantly influenced by short-term aspects in reference to the election campaign in query, for instance with certain candidates and certain issues. This is one reason why it might be useful if surveys asked all respondents – not only independents – how much they discover with one party or one other.
In our January 2023 article “The flexible voter” my colleague Dan Hunting and I analyzed ANES data on political identification and voting behavior from 1972 to 2020. We observed substantial fluctuations within the party loyalty of independent voters across multiple election. We also found evidence that a major variety of independents gain and lose independent status from one election to the following. We argue that there’s a need to review the long-term voting behavior of specific voters.
Although there isn’t any consensus on what number of independent voters there are within the United States, their numbers actually look like rising. The increase may force academics, the media, and the general public to desert their traditional two-party view of American politics. It's possible that long-standing poll questions are not any longer – or perhaps never were – truly suited to gauging the political beliefs of independent voters.
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