A national newspollconducted from June 24 to twenty-eight amongst a sample of 1,260 people, showed Labor leading the Coalition 51 percent to 49 percent, a gain of 1 percentage point because the last Newspoll poll three weeks ago. In the first election, 36 percent voted for the Coalition (down three), 32 percent for Labor (down one), 13 percent for the Greens (up two), 7 percent for One Nation (unchanged) and 12 percent for all others (up two).
Newspoll uses preference flows for 2022 to calculate its two-party estimate. Using the rounded primaries would normally give Labor a 52-48% lead, so the rounding on this poll probably favoured the Coalition.
With Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 53% were dissatisfied (up three) and 42% satisfied (down one), giving him a net approval rating of -11, a drop of 4 points. This is Albanese's lowest net approval rating since -13 in November 2023 after the Voice referendum. The graph below comprises Newspoll data on Albanese's net approval rating (plus sign) for this term, with an adjusted smoothed line.
However, opposition leader Peter Dutton's net approval rankings fell six percentage points to -16, the bottom since October 2023. Albanese was unchanged at 46-38%, ahead of Dutton as the higher prime minister.
45 to 42 percent of voters rejected the “Coalition’s plans to build nuclear reactors at seven existing and former coal-fired power stations in Australia by 2050.”
The controversy over the nuclear plans has likely given Labor a lift inside the two parties, even when ongoing cost-of-living pressures are denting Albanese's popularity.
Solve survey on nuclear power
A national Cancel survey A nine-newspaper poll of 1,003 people conducted after the announcement of Dutton's nuclear plans (20-23 June) found that 41-37% of voters supported nuclear power. In a more open-ended query, 32% (4 fewer than in February) said they supported nuclear power, 28% opposed it (five more) and 30% (three more) had no strong opinion but were open to an investigation.
Renewable energies generally had a net sympathy of +66, nuclear power of +8 and coal power of +2.
When given the selection between “Labour's plan to switch to 100 per cent renewable energy over the next one to two decades (supported by gas over the next one to two decades)” and “the Coalition's plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support renewable energy”, voters voted for Labour's plan by a majority of 43 per cent to 33 per cent.
Important poll: Labour leads for the primary time since April
A National Essential SurveyThe poll of 1,181 people, conducted between 12 and 16 June, gave Labour a lead of 48-46%, including undecided voters, after a 48-48% tie in early June.
This is Labour's first lead in an Essential poll since April, partly on account of weak preference flows amongst respondents in favour of Labour.
The primary votes on this poll were 32% for the Coalition (down 4), 31% for Labor (down one), 13% for the Greens (unchanged), 8% for One Nation (up three), 1% for UAP (down two), 9% for all others (up one) and 6% for undecideds (up two).
On Australia's Emissions targets52% said we should always persist with our 2030 goal, while 48% said we should always abandon it since it was unattainable and damaging to the economy. 36-31% of voters rejected Dutton's decision to oppose Australia's 2030 goal.
Bianca De Marchi/AAP
Regarding Israel's military motion within the Gaza Strip, 38 percent (six percentage points greater than in April) said Israel should withdraw permanently, 21 percent (two percentage points more) said a brief ceasefire needs to be agreed to, and 15 percent (4 percentage points less) said Israel's military motion was justified.
Fifty-two percent were satisfied with the Australian government's response to the Israel-Gaza war, 32 percent said it supported Israel an excessive amount of and 16 percent said it was too harsh on Israel.
56-22% of voters supported regulating e-cigarettes so that they’re only available on prescription in pharmacies (in comparison with 58-20% in March). Negative attitudes toward e-cigarettes have increased since March.
Morgan poll: 51-49% for Labour
A national Morgan surveyThe June 10-16 poll, which sampled 1,724 people, found Labour and the Coalition tied 50-50, a gain of three.5 percentage points because the June 2-9 poll, which was a pro-Labour outlier.
In the Morgan Survey The poll was conducted from June 17 to 23 with a sample of 1,696. Labour was ahead by 51 percent to 49 percent.
The primary vote was 37% for the Coalition (down one since 10-16 June), 31.5% for Labor (up two), 13% for the Greens (down 0.5), 6% for One Nation (up one), 8.5% for Independents (unchanged) and 4% for Others (down 1.5).
Further questions on Resolve
I previously reported for nine newspapers on the nationwide Resolve poll, which gave Dutton the lead as preferred prime minister for the primary time within the history of a polling organisation.
In further questions41% (down 4 since August 2023 and ten since October 2021) said climate change is a major problem and we should always take motion now, even when it comes at a big cost.
Thirty-two percent of respondents (up three percentage points since August 2023 and five since October 2021) believed that climate change is gradual, so we will address it in small steps over time. 18 percent (up two and up six) said: “Until we are sure that climate change is a real problem, we should only consider measures that do not entail significant costs.”
Fifty-two percent of respondents supported the goal of a 43 percent emissions reduction by 2030 or called for a more ambitious goal, while 30 percent called for a discount within the goal or rejected it outright.
Voters were asked what Forms of protest They considered it legitimate. The types of protest with the best support were rallies in a park or in front of a parliament (53%) and demonstrations on the road (41%). Other types of protest that involved disturbing the general public or a member of parliament received lower than 15% support.
NSW Resolve poll: Labor stays ahead on preferences
A brand new South Wales Resolve status survey The poll for the Sydney Morning Herald, based on the May and June nationwide Resolve polls with a sample of 1,000 people, showed 35% for the Coalition (down one vote since April), 32% for Labor (down one vote), 11% for the Greens (down one vote), 15% for independents (down one vote) and seven% for other voters (down two votes) in the first election.
Resolve didn’t provide a two-sided estimate, but The survey parasite estimated that Labor may have a 52-48% lead based on the preference distribution on the 2023 state election. This is barely higher for Labor than a recent poll in NSW Redbridge, which predicted they might only have a 50.5-49.5% lead.
Incumbent Labor politician Chris Minns was voted the popular prime minister, 38% to 13% ahead of Liberal Democrat Mark Speakman (in comparison with 37% to 16% in April).
Voters were also told that the Labour government had recently announced plans to Promoting denser developmentreminiscent of housing blocks, are to be built near 37 railway stations and that the Liberals opposed this policy. 50-31% of voters supported this policy.
A by-election in NSW took place on 22 June in Northern Plateauswith Labor not contesting. The Nationals won 68.0% of the first vote (a decline of 4.2% because the 2023 state election), the Shooters 11.4% (up 7.9%), the Greens 9.1% (up 4.5%) and two independents combined 11.6%; Labor had gained 10.2% in 2023.
The Electoral Commission has chosen the Nationals and the Greens as the ultimate two candidates within the Nationals versus Shooters battle. The Nationals will win very easily.
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