Pollsters say leftists will win most seats; turmoil looms

PARIS — A coalition of France's left that quickly got here together to defeat the resurgent far right in parliamentary elections has won essentially the most seats in parliament but not a majority, in accordance with polls forecast on Sunday, a surprise result that threatens to plunge the country into political and economic turmoil.

According to forecasts, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance is in second place, not having a majority in parliament, and the battered extreme right is in third place.

With no bloc capable of secure a transparent majority, France faces uncertainties that would shake the markets and economy of the country, the European Union's second-largest, and solid a shadow of political instability over the Paris Olympics, which begin in lower than three weeks.

Olivier Faure, first secretary of the Socialist Party, clenches his fist at the party's election night headquarters in Paris after the second round of parliamentary elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024. A coalition of the left that unexpectedly came together ahead of France's snap elections won the most seats in parliament, according to poll forecasts on Sunday. The surprise forecasts put President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance in second place and the far right in third. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)
Olivier Faure, first secretary of the Socialist Party, clenches his fist after the second round of parliamentary elections on the party's election night headquarters in Paris, Sunday, July 7, 2024. A coalition of leftists that unexpectedly got here together ahead of France's snap elections won essentially the most parliamentary seats within the vote, poll forecasts showed on Sunday. (Aurelien Morissard/Associated Press)

Final results of the highly explosive early elections are usually not expected until late Sunday or early Monday. Even before the vote, the political map of France was redrawn. The left-wing parties put aside their differences and joined forces after Macron announced the dissolution of parliament and the decision for brand spanking new elections just 4 weeks earlier. The president hoped to make use of this gamble to consolidate his centrist alliance.

This strategy doesn’t appear to have paid off for the deeply unpopular president. Forecasts suggest that his alliance will not be the biggest party in parliament, maybe even by far. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National did increase its variety of seats significantly, but fell far wanting its hopes of an absolute majority that might have given France its first far-right government since World War II.

In Paris's Stalingrad Square, left-wing supporters cheered and applauded as projections of the alliance flashed on a large screen. In the Place de la République in eastern Paris, there have been also cries of joy, people spontaneously hugged strangers and minutes of uninterrupted applause after the projections appeared.

Jordan Bardella, Le Pen's 28-year-old protégé who had hoped to grow to be prime minister, lamented that the election result “drives France into the arms of the extreme left”.

The left-wing coalition's most distinguished leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, called on Macron to ask the New Popular Front coalition to form a government. The alliance, he said, was “ready to govern.”

If the forecasts are confirmed by official figures, it should mean great uncertainty for a pillar of the European Union. There isn’t any clarity about who might grow to be prime minister – and the prospect that Macron can be forced to manipulate with someone who opposes most of his domestic policy goals. The results will affect the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe's economic stability.

The poll forecasts are based on the actual vote count in chosen constituencies.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation, but in addition said he would stay in office temporarily through the Olympics or so long as needed, as selecting a brand new prime minister could involve weeks of negotiations.

In an announcement from his office, Macron said he wouldn’t be pressured into asking a possible prime minister to form a government. He said he was monitoring the outcomes and would wait for the brand new National Assembly to take shape before taking “the necessary decisions,” while respecting “the sovereign decision of the French.”

A parliament with out a clear majority, through which no single bloc could come anywhere near winning the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority within the National Assembly, the more powerful of France's two legislative chambers, could be uncharted territory for contemporary France.

Unlike in other European countries, where coalition governments are more common, there isn’t any tradition in France of MPs from rival political camps joining forces to form a majority.

Macron shocked France and lots of in his own government by dissolving parliament after the far right gained popularity in France's European elections in June.

Jordan Bardella, leader of the Rassemblement National, leaves the building after speaking to the press and his supporters as early projections point to his party's defeat in the French legislative elections on July 7, 2024 in Paris, France. The Rassemblement National party was expected to deliver a strong result in the second round of the French legislative elections, which the French president called last month after his party performed poorly in the European elections. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)
Jordan Bardella, leader of the Rassemblement National, leaves the stage after chatting with the press and supporters in Paris, as early projections point to his party's defeat within the French legislative elections on July 7, 2024. The Rassemblement National was expected to attain a powerful lead to the second round of the French legislative elections. (Carl Court/Getty Images)

Macron argued that returning voters to the ballot box would bring “clarity” to France. The president hoped that with France's fate of their hands, voters might shift away from the far right and left and return to established parties closer to the middle – where Macron found much of the support that won him the presidency in 2017 and 2022. This, he hoped, would strengthen his presidency for the remaining three years of his term.

But as a substitute of standing behind him, hundreds of thousands of voters used his surprising decision as a chance to vent their anger.

In the primary round of voting last weekend, voters gave much more support to Rassemblement National candidates than within the European elections. The coalition of left-wing parties got here in second place, along with his centrist alliance a distant third.

Any cobbled-together majority runs the danger of being fragile and being brought down by votes of no confidence.

Prolonged instability could reinforce suggestions from his opponents that Macron should end his second and final term in office. The French structure prohibits him from dissolving parliament again in the following 12 months, making him unwilling to potentially provide France with more clarity.

Associated Press journalists Barbara Surk in Nice, France, and Helena Alves and Alex Turnbull in Paris contributed to this report.

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