By 2070, the overlap between humans and animals is predicted to extend in greater than half of the world's countries. The major reason for these changes is population growth. This is the important thing finding of our newly published study within the journal Science Advances.
Our research suggests that because the population increases, humans and animals will share an increasing number of landscapes. For example, as more people move into forests and agricultural areas, the overlap between humans and animals will increase greatly. It may even increase in urban areas, as People move to cities searching for jobs and opportunities.
Animals are also moving, especially in response to climate change. Shifting their reach. In most areas Biodiversity – the variety of unique species present – will decrease as animals follow their preferred climate. However, as population growth increases, there’ll still be more overlap between humans and animals in most countries.
We also found that areas of human-wildlife overlap will decrease because the population shifts, although these areas will likely be significantly less common than areas of increase.
Ma et al., 2024, CC BY-ND
We found that Africa can have the biggest share of land with increasing human-wildlife overlap (70.6%), followed by South America (66.5%). In contrast, Europe can have the biggest share of land where human-wildlife overlap will decrease (21.4%).
Why it is vital
Around the world, humans and wildlife are increasingly competing for limited living space. This can result in harmful consequences, akin to human-wildlife conflict and the spread of diseases between humans and animals.
However, coping with wild animals may have benefits. Birds, for instance provide useful pest control for some cropsAnd studies show that Bird watching and animals in nature improve people’s mental health.
It is essential to administer these interactions in a way that minimizes negative impacts and maximizes advantages. This is a key objective of the Global framework for biodiversity which nations adopted in 2022 as a blueprint for sustaining life on Earth and slowing the loss of untamed species.
Our findings underscore the necessity to ensure human-wildlife coexistence. Our research provides a comprehensive understanding of where changes within the human-wildlife intersection will occur in the longer term, including the hotspots that may require simpler measures to enhance human-wildlife interactions.
How we worked
We developed a spatial index to measure human-wildlife overlap around the globe. To calculate the degree of overlap region by region, we multiplied the population density by the variety of species present in a given area. Our study included 22,374 land-dwelling species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles.
By combining published datasets on recent (2015) and future (2070) populations, species distributions, and land types, we were capable of examine how human-wildlife overlap will change by 2070 and discover the places where this overlap will increase most dramatically. We then examined changes in biodiversity in each land type—cropland, grassland, urban, and forest—as human-wildlife overlap increases.
What happens next?
Our research broadly shows how human-wildlife intersections will change, but to know the implications, researchers will need local studies. Future research on shared lands should analyze aspects akin to species richness, species behavior and ecology, and kinds of human-wildlife interactions.
Policymakers can use the insights from our work to guide conservation planning in a more abundant future. For example, our forecasts might help discover locations for habitat corridors that allow wildlife to maneuver between critical habitats. They could also help discover areas that relatively well protected against the consequences of climate change over time and will function refuges for endangered species.
Our work can influence future investments in nature conservation, akin to Renaturation areas where population density is declining, or to conserve and enhance wildlife habitat in places where urbanization is increasing.
Finally, our study shows the importance of involving local communities in species conservation. In our view, using multiple conservation strategies and taking human needs into consideration is essentially the most effective option to ensure sustainable coexistence.
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image credit : theconversation.com