Can a political party attract attention when its rival holds a celebration conference? Yes, nevertheless it isn’t easy

Even for the previous US President Donald Trumpa master at attracting attention, it is sort of unattainable to host a counter-program in the course of the Democratic National Convention.

While the members and supporters of 1 party meet every 4 years for his or her biggest party, the opposite party must frequently endure every week of widespread ignorance, irrespective of how creative or dramatic their very own efforts to counter-program could also be.

However, this doesn’t mean that the opposing parties' campaigns should take a break in the course of the party conference week. They can and do recommend their arguments regarding the upcoming election, while the opposite party honors its candidates.

But because the attention of all journalists and the general public is concentrated on the party congress, these 4 days of meetings are anything however the optimal time for the opposing party to make its voice heard.

The typically one-sided media attention in the course of the congressional weeks is certainly one of the the explanation why political campaigns normally an upswing after the conference of a couple of percentage points. But the Impact of conventions on public opinion was much larger prior to now, when there was not such strong political polarization.

Conventional recovery

In 1992, for instance, the Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton was a single percentage point behind incumbent GOP President George HW Bush when the Democratic Convention After the convention, Clinton was up 29 points.

In 2000 GOP candidate George W. Bush a lead of 8 points over his Democratic rival Al Gore after the 2000 Republican Convention.

But these recovery phases are sometimes only short-lived.

As I discuss in my book Communication and character of the President,” even the nice upswings of 1992 and 2000 gave way much closer elections.

More recently, the one candidate to record a poll gain of greater than 4 percentage points after the convention was The 2008 Republican candidate, John McCain. He lost to the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

Hardly any opportunities for political attacks

The best an opposing party can hope for during convention week is failure.

The problem is that such debacles are rare at a time when presidential elections are frequently not fraught with last-minute drama. Conventions themselves have increasingly turn into a script.

It wasn't all the time like this.

The turbulent Democratic Party Convention of 1968 offered Republicans quite a few opportunities to attract attention to the chaotic scenes in Chicago – and thus the chaos inside the Democratic Party. But that was not vital, since the nationally televised images of Chicago riot police The suppression of the Vietnam War opponents through using tear gas and batons spoke for itself.

Difficult vice presidential elections, corresponding to Democrat Tom Eagleton in 1972 And Republican Sarah Palin in 2008also can trigger lasting partisan reactions, because the Democrats quickly Trump selected JD Vancea U.S. Senator from Ohio, as his running mate.

These partisan attacks normally intensify in the times and weeks following the convention, especially if the vice presidential candidate has difficulty their position on the national stage.

Trump's playbook

In the times leading as much as the Democratic Party Convention, Republican officials emphasized: Democratic disagreements over Israel's war in Gaza. GOP leaders have also tried to capitalize on this potential dissatisfaction about how Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s nominee without having to undergo a primary, a process that Trump called a “shot”.

The Trump campaign has tried to portray Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, as a communist or pro-China And has wrongly argued that pictures of enthusiastic democratic masses The cheers for the ticket were generated by artificial intelligence.

Although some Republicans encouraged Trump spending less time talking about conspiracies and attacking Harris' character, Trump is drawn to his own strategy. Instead of following her advice, Trump has continued his personal attacks against Harris, by which he described her father as Professor of Economics at Stanford University“a Marxist”.

So far, nevertheless, Democratic Convention 2024 looks nothing like 1968. The comparatively small variety of demonstrators Inside and out of doors the convention hall, the Republican counterprogramming team didn't have much opportunity to use anything.

Not easy for the Democrats either

The Democrats' efforts to place together a counter-program in the course of the Republican Party convention earlier this summer were also unsuccessful.

The limited media attention the Democrats received in the course of the week of Trump’s re-nomination focused almost exclusively on the query of whether President Joe Biden would quit his candidacy for re-election – not the popular topic of the party’s counter-program makers.

Additionally, Biden's timing demonstrated the challenges in shaping narratives during opposition party congresses.

By Biden his announcement Although Harris would drop out of the race three days after the Republican National Convention ended on July 18, the launch of his campaign didn’t should compete with news of the Republican National Convention.

Congresses last lower than every week, whereas campaigns last for months. Unless there are major failures, this 12 months's counter-programs – like so many previous congress years – is not going to be remembered for long.