Chinese warships were recently sighted Sailing near the Aleutian Islandsdirectly off the coast of Alaska. Meanwhile Navy boats have begun to dock in a military port built by Beijing in Cambodia.
Even though these two events took place on different sides of the world, they’re each a part of a very important geopolitical development – one which may lead to a world war.
This could seem a bit of alarmist. But as I explain in my book:Near and distant waters: the geopolitics of sea power”, the dynamics which are playing out today as China tries to position the US as largest naval power on this planet are reflected up to now – and have led to among the most consequential conflicts on this planet.
To understand the geopolitics of sea power, one must understand two concepts: “near waters” and “distant waters.” Near waters are areas near a rustic's coast which are considered essential for its defense. Distant waters are areas across the ocean where a rustic desires to have a presence for economic and strategic interests.
But here's the issue: one country's distant waters are one other's near waters, and that creates tension. For example, the Western Pacific is China's near waters and the United States' distant waters – and each countries are in a struggle for strategic benefits there. To make matters worse, two or more countries are competing for influence in the identical waters. In the Western Pacific, China is competing for dominance over smaller island fleets from countries akin to the Philippines and Vietnam.
Changing tides
The competition for near and much waters changes over time. The near waters of the USA are a strategic and fluid areaas a substitute of a legal definition that features the east and west coasts – the latter stretching from Hawaii far into the Pacific. It also includes parts of the Caribbean and the Aleutian Islands.
The US gained control of its nearby waters throughout the nineteenth century and the primary half of the twentieth century. It culminated in a “Destroyers-for-bases deal within the early stages of World War II, when British military bases within the Caribbean and Newfoundland were placed under Washington's control. In return, the British were “given” old warships that were barely functional.
Only later did the USA extend its influence to large areas beyond the Atlantic and Pacific, especially through its successes in World War II.
China, alternatively, lost control of the encircling waters at the top of the nineteenth century as European colonial powers and the United States competed for access to China's markets. This was humiliating for China, hampered economic growth, and contributed to the collapse of traditional dynasties and the emergence of competing nationalist and communist policies – eventually resulting in civil war.
Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
More than shipbuilding
China is a worldwide economic power and subsequently needs to regulate nearby waters and establish a presence in distant waters.
For Beijing, this can be a mandatory and acceptable step toward becoming an influence equal to the United States. But for the United States – the dominant naval power since World War II – this process poses a challenge to its presence in distant waters.
China already has the biggest navy on this planet measured by the variety of ships. Over the past 15 years, China has built 131 ships able to operating in distant waters, while 144 are designed to operate in nearby waters.
As of 2021, China was Operation or equipment two aircraft carriers, 36 destroyers, 30 frigates and nine large amphibious carriers – the sort of ships needed to significantly challenge US naval dominance.
These numbers are still dwarfed by the equivalent variety of US warships. But they’re larger than some other country's fleet, and there isn’t a doubt that China is constructing a navy designed to project power into distant waters.
But gaining naval supremacy shouldn’t be limited to shipbuilding. The Chinese plan envisages:“Island construction” projects to ascertain a presence within the waters near Asian countries akin to the Philippines and Vietnam. Elsewhere, it’s attempting to use its economic power to dissuade countries from Washington's naval support.
Take Ream, for instance, a Cambodian military base within the Gulf of Thailand and former site of joint US-Cambodia naval exercises. The base was to be redeveloped under an agreement with the US – an example of how Washington is trying to keep up its presence in its distant Asian waters.
But in a surprising move in 2020 withdrawn from the contract.
Since then, the funds from Beijing provided an improved basisIn 2024, there was a continued Chinese presence on the Ream base, including the development of a pier and a big dry dock with Chinese funding.
This naval presence serves China's goal of defending its nearby waters, however it also strengthens Beijing's ability to project its power within the distant waters of the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
A presence at Ream also gives China a number one position at a critical point within the “Sea communication lines”, the ocean routes through which much of the world’s trade is carried out. The nearby Strait of Malacca is a serious global bottleneck through which Trading volume of three.5 trillion US dollars per yr – including one third of world trade, 40 percent of Japanese trade and two thirds of Chinese trade.
Access to the Ream base in Cambodia enables China to observe these trade routes. China views this monitoring role as positive and peaceful. The US and other countries fear that China could use it to disrupt global trade – even though it shouldn’t be clear why China would do that, given its economy relies on imports and exports.
Fight for influence
Ream shouldn’t be an isolated case; China has been trying to realize power and influence on the opposite side of the Pacific for years.
Over the past decade, Beijing has built strong economic and diplomatic ties with Pacific island nations, including an agreement with the Solomon Islands that raised concerns about China within the West. Establishment of a military naval presence there.
Of course, the US, with its bases in Japan and South Korea and its support for Taiwan, continues to be a big and formidable presence for China. Washington has also begun to step up its efforts to Overtaking China among the many Pacific islandsand signed a 2023 contract that may give U.S. ships “unhindered access” to bases there.
But the geopolitics of naval power is a process and shouldn’t be determined by current events. Therefore, the ebb and flow must be viewed by the evolution of naval presence over several years.
Therefore, the presence of Chinese warships cruise near Alaska is a very important development.
There is a possibility that China can extend its power into distant waters – and into the waters near the United States.
Albatrosses or falcons?
To be clear, China didn’t violate international law by sailing near the Aleutian Islands. And US authorities appear to have downplayed the incident.
Nevertheless, it shows that China has the flexibility and the intention to take its naval rivalry with the United States into diplomatically uncharted waters and closer to American shores.
This is a brand new phase within the naval power contest between the United States and China – and one that ought to worry us all.
In the past, the rise and fall of maritime powers have occurred in conflicts in waters near and much and have led to major conflicts. The Dutch fought against the British and French within the distant waters off the Indian coast within the seventeenth and 18th centuries, and a key element of World War II was the Challenge to British naval supremacy in its distant waters in Asia and its near waters in Northern Europe.
This doesn’t mean that war is inevitable. It is feasible to resolve tensions between China and the US in a way that accommodates China's global ambitions without threatening or weakening other countries.
But this can be a shared duty that falls to policymakers in each Washington and Beijing. Relations between the 2 countries have recently been dominated by belligerent voices in each countries. But an aggressive stance by either country in terms of defending waters near or far can be a dangerous option.
image credit : theconversation.com