The US presidential election will happen on November 5. Election analyst Nate Silver national survey aggregate Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump with 45.5% to 44.1%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.0%.
When President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy on July 21, Trump was at 45.2%-41.2%. Lead over Bidenso Harris has improved Biden's net lead by 5.4 points. In the election, Biden might be at almost 82, Trump at 78 and Harris at 60.
Silver's model gave Trump a 73 percent likelihood of winning the election when Biden was his opponent. When the Harris vs. Trump model was introduced last Tuesday, Trump had a 62 percent likelihood of winning. The model now gives Harris a really slight favorite, with a 50.5 percent likelihood of winning.
The U.S. president is elected not by the favored vote but by the Electoral College, wherein each state receives electoral votes based largely on population. Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and 270 electoral votes (out of a complete of 538) are needed to win.
Silver's model gives Harris a 66 percent likelihood of winning a majority of the vote, in comparison with a 50.5 percent likelihood within the Electoral College. The model shows that Harris must win a majority of the vote by a minimum of two percentage points to be considered the favourite to win the Electoral College.
The odds for Harris or Trump are still 50-50, but Harris has significantly improved the situation under Biden. The switch from Biden to Harris was clearly the fitting decision for the Democrats.
In the economic data, the Unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.3% in July, the very best since October 2021 because the U.S. recovered from the COVID recession. A weaker economy is more likely to help Trump.
Australian politics: the inflation report
The Australian Bureau of Statistics published the Inflation report for the third quarter on July thirty first.
Inflation rose by 1%, the identical as within the March quarter, reaching a 12-month rate of three.8%. However, the trimmed mean and weighted median core inflation within the June quarter were each below headline inflation, which was 0.8%.
The ABC reported Economists considered an rate of interest hike unlikely after this inflation report, and the following rate of interest change is more likely to be downward, but not until early 2025.
The cost of living was by far the largest concern for voters, so this report is modest excellent news for Labour. The polls below include a poor Redbridge poll for Labour, conducted in mid-July.
Important poll: Labour Party narrowly ahead
A national Important surveyThe poll, conducted from 24 to twenty-eight July and covering a sample of 1,137 people, gave Labour a lead of 47-46% including undecided voters, a reversal of the Coalition's lead of 48-46% in mid-July.
In the primaries, 34% voted for the Coalition (up one), 32% for Labor (up three), 11% for the Greens (down two), 7% for One Nation (down one), 2% for UAP (down one), 9% for all others (unchanged) and 6% for undecideds (unchanged).
This is Labour's second lead in Essential's fortnightly polls since April. Labour's poor position on this poll is partly resulting from weak preference flows from respondents.
Anthony Albanese had a -3 Net admissiona rise of six points because the starting of July, with 46% expressing disapproval and 43% approval. Peter Dutton's net approval rose by two points to +1.
56-36% of Australians had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, a big improvement from the 72-20% unfavorable opinions after the 2020 US election. 48-25% had a good opinion of Harris. 37-23% of voters thought Australia's relations with the US would worsen if Trump were elected president.
Regarding union membership, 11% said they were currently union members, 28% weren’t currently but were previously union members, and 58% had never been a member. 64-26% of voters thought unions were essential (60-24% in 2020). 51-26% thought employees could be higher off with stronger unions (50-24% in 2020).
33 percent of respondents said that the connection between employees and unions was too close, 33 percent said it was about right and 10 percent said it was not close enough.
Morgan poll: 50.5-49.5% for Labour
A national Morgan SurveyThe poll, conducted from July 15 to 21 with a sample of 1,752 people, gave the coalition a lead of 51-49%, a gain of 0.5 percentage points because the July 8-14 poll.
In the Morgan Survey The poll was conducted from July 22 to twenty-eight and covered a sample of 1,652 people. Labour was ahead by 50.5% to 49.5%.
In the first election, 37.5% voted for the Coalition (two votes lower than within the period from 15 to 21 July), 30.5% for Labor (one less), 13% for the Greens (unchanged), 6.5% for One Nation (1.5% more), 8.5% for independents (another) and 4% for other parties (0.5% more).
Taking under consideration preferences resulting from the 2022 election results, Labour was ahead by 51% to 49%, a gain of 0.5 percentage points.
Bianca De Marchi/AAP
Redbridge poll: Big swing to coalition gives them lead
A national Redbridge poll conducted from 10 to 19 July with a sample of 1,505 people showed the Coalition leading by 51.5 to 48.5 percent, a gain of three.5 percentage points since Redbridge survey from April.
In the primaries, the vote was 41% for the Coalition (up 4), 32% for Labour (down one), 11% for the Greens (down one) and 16% for all others (down two).
48-27% of voters felt the Albanese government was not focused on the fitting priorities (50-34% in April). 40-34% didn’t consider the Dutton-led coalition was ready to control (previously 45-36%).
38–37% of voters opposed the development of nuclear power stations, but 33–29% believed the Coalition had a greater plan than Labor for future energy reliability and affordability.
YouGov poll: 51-49% for Labour
A national YouGov surveyThe poll, conducted from July 12 to 17 and covering a sample of 1,528 people, gave Labour a 51-49 percent lead, up one percentage point because the last YouGov poll. at first of June.
In the primaries, 38% voted for the Coalition (unchanged), 31% for Labor (up one), 13% for the Greens (down one), 7% for One Nation (down one) and 11% for all others (up one).
Albanese's net approval rating improved by two points to -10, with 52% satisfied and 42% dissatisfied. Dutton's net approval rating increased by nine points to -4. Albanese was ahead as preferred prime minister by 45-37% (up from 47-36% in June).
When asked if they may name something the federal government had done to enhance their personal financial situation, 73 percent said “no” and 27 percent said “yes.” Tax cuts were the most well-liked at 10 percent. In a poll before the May budget, 82 percent of respondents answered “no.”
In further questions The previous YouGov poll shows that 31% lean towards more capitalism, 27% towards more socialism and 42% are neutral. 50-27% of voters think that the federal government Support low-cost airlines.
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