Most young voters support Kamala Harris – but that doesn’t guarantee they’ll vote

Young people could determine the 2024 presidential election.

It is a story as old as time – a story The appears everyone Choicealmost like clockwork.

The narrative is similar this election cycle. There is palpable excitement about the potential for young people raising their voices in 2024.

Young people particularly have clearly expressed their support for Vice President Kamala Harris, who will officially accept her party's presidential nomination on the Democratic National Convention on August 22, 2024.

Harris' young supporters have popular TikTok videos and widespread Memes with Coconut trees and diverse references to the stylish term “Brat”.

Both former President Donald Trump and Harris try to capitalize on the keenness of young people – through Participation in live streams with popular, young content creators and by copying a number of the specific Colors and themes that usually appear in young people’s online content.

The vibrations may indicate that a “youth wave” comes.

Young people predominantly support Harris

Harris is currently confident leadership under youth.

Depending on the survey The you seeIf the election were held today, Harris would likely receive about 50 to 60 percent of the vote from young people, that’s, people ages 18 to 29 or, in some cases, 18 to 34.

Trump would only appeal to about 34 percent of young people.

That's an enormous difference. You could have a look at that difference and say that young people could actually make the difference on the ballot box in November.

It is difficult to say exactly what number of young voters Harris must win over to win the election. but many political experts have argued that Harris must be certain that she secures a dominant majority amongst them.

But no matter whether or not they support Harris in pre-election polls, my research shows that many young persons are probably not to indicate up and truly forged their vote.

Young people often don’t vote

Assessment of young people’s participation in American elections is darkAlthough young persons are the most important group of eligible voters, can be found at significantly lower prices than older Americans.

In the Intermediate examinations in November 2022For example, only 25.5% of 18- to 29-year-olds forged their votes, while 63.1% of those over 60 forged their votes.

Although November 2020 saw a record high in youth voter turnoutOnly 52.5% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted, in comparison with 78% of those over 60.

While it’s difficult to predict what number of young people will vote in November 2024, Leading indicators – corresponding to the variety of young individuals who say they’ll vote – suggest that this pattern of low youth voter turnout will proceed.

The United States has certainly one of the lowest voter turnout amongst young people worldwide. The Gap between 18- to 29-year-olds and people over 60a typical measure, is greater than twice as high here as in other countries corresponding to Canada or Germany.

In our 2020 book: “Winning over young voters: transforming civic attitudes into civic motion“, political scientist Sunshine Hillygus and I sought to raised understand what prevents young people from voting and what might be done to alter this trend.

Why increasingly more young people are usually not voting

There are two primary obstacles to young people voting. One problem is that young people are usually not particularly occupied with voting. Current surveysAbout 77% of young people say they definitely wish to vote within the upcoming elections in November.

Among older residents, this figure is 90%.

However, a second – and maybe even more serious – problem is that young individuals who wish to vote often don’t put their intentions into motion.

By examining survey data and conducting interviews with dozens of young people in 2018 Hillygus and I discovered that many young people lack self-confidence and are unable to navigate the primary electoral process.

Many told us that voting often falls by the wayside of their busy, hectic and always changing schedules.

Due to highschool and work commitments and a scarcity of experience in completing voter registration forms and voting, many young people find voting to be an insurmountable burden.

What helps to extend voter turnout amongst young people?

A typical assumption amongst many youth organizations appears to be that more young people would vote if voting were considered cool. We saw this approach again this election cycle, when activists clamored for support from celebrities like singer Taylor Swift.

The problem is that this approach is just not compatible with the proven fact that young persons are occupied with politics and find it difficult to take the crucial steps.

The biggest hurdle for a lot of young people is voter registration particularly. In 2022, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that only 40% of young people said they were registered to vote within the midterm elections.

Programs that help young people register to vote can particularly effective to encourage them to forged their vote.

It has also turn out to be more common for political campaigns to support young adults Make a plan for voting by outlining when and where you’ll vote and the way you’re going to get to your polling place.

Other methods, corresponding to sending SMS remindersAutomatic calendar reminders and providing transportation to polling stations are also effective in helping young individuals who wish to vote to truly accomplish that. Although a few of these strategies utilized in Many of those are usually not common within the 2024 election.

A government measure that makes voter registration and voting easier would also increase voter turnout amongst young people.

Same-day voter registration is especially effective in encouraging young people to vote. 16 and 17 12 months olds Voter registration before the age of 18 also can significantly increase the variety of voters under 30. 21 statesincluding California, Massachusetts, Florida and Louisiana, allow 16- and 17-year-olds to pre-register to vote.

Our research suggests that countries that implement such reforms close the gap between older and younger voters by a couple of third.

There is a few evidence that Harris has latest strength the youth voice.

Whether the young residents will show up and let Harris take the presidency or stay home and let Trump take the lead stays to be seen.