After five months of slow and regular progress, baseball will now shift into fast and wild mode. It's almost September, which suggests the annual sprint to the postseason will soon begin.
Unless it has already happened and we missed it.
The bookmakers at FanGraphs appear to consider that the playoff situation is pretty much as good as already decided.
Before Thursday's game, FanGraphs had six teams within the American League with over a 74 percent probability of creating the playoffs and just one other with a 20 percent probability. In the National League, the situation is even clearer: Five teams have at the very least a 90 percent probability, yet another is just below 75 percent, and the one other serious contender has a 25.3 percent probability.
All other NL teams have single-digit playoff possibilities. That wasn't the case on August 1. At the beginning of the day, 19 different teams had at the very least an 11 percent probability of creating the playoffs, and a twentieth team – the defending champion Texas Rangers – had a 9.4 percent probability.
It seems that the variety of playoff participants depends more on what happened within the last five weeks than on what happens in the subsequent five weeks.
Odds for the American League playoffs
| team | 3 months ago | All-Star Game | Deadline | 2 weeks ago | Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
22.6% |
52.4% |
43.5% |
42.9% |
39.1% |
|
|
33.4% |
16.4% |
13.4% |
7.5% |
4.0% |
|
|
59.5% |
82.1% |
82.3% |
89.2% |
87.7% |
|
|
62.0% |
32.8% |
47.0% |
55.5% |
75.1% |
|
|
12.4% |
7.5% |
2.8% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
|
51.0% |
58.3% |
58.2% |
61.9% |
90.3% |
|
|
62.8% |
56.5% |
48.9% |
51.4% |
12.6% |
|
|
19.7% |
11.9% |
14.4% |
3.6% |
0.5% |
There are still tight division races within the AL East and AL Central – and arguably the NL West – but those races are between teams which have a wildcard advantage and don't necessarily need a division title to play in October.
The New York Yankees (99.4 percent probability of creating the playoffs), Baltimore Orioles (97.8 percent) and Cleveland Guardians (92.5 percent) are all but certain candidates for the postseason within the American League, while the Houston Astros (90.3 percent) and Minnesota Twins (87.7 percent) are statistically secure bets. The Kansas City Royals currently hold the ultimate wild-card spot with a 75.1 percent probability of keeping it.
Otherwise, the Boston Red Sox (39.1 percent) are the one other team really within the running. The Seattle Mariners are right down to 12.6 percent and the Tampa Bay Rays – who made some noise in July – are right down to a 4 percent probability.
In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers (one hundred pc), the Philadelphia Phillies (99.5 percent) and the Milwaukee Brewers (99.3 percent) have all but secured a spot within the postseason, while the red-hot San Diego Padres (95.1 percent) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (92 percent) have catapulted themselves into good positions to hitch them.
Preseason favorites the Atlanta Braves have been decimated by injuries, but even they’ve a robust 74.6 percent probability of clinching the ultimate wild-card spot. The only team that may seriously chase the Braves is the New York Mets, whose playoff possibilities have dropped to 25.5 percent after rising to only over 50 percent in late July. No other NL team has double-digit playoff possibilities, with only the San Francisco Giants (7 percent) having a probability above 3 percent.
Odds for the National League playoffs
| team | 3 months ago | All-Star Game | Deadline | 2 weeks ago | Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
99.0% |
93.5% |
80.0% |
60.7% |
74.6% |
|
|
14.4% |
44.2% |
51.6% |
38.8% |
25.2% |
|
|
53.1% |
11.7% |
5.6% |
7.6% |
2.6% |
|
|
26.2% |
42.1% |
22.7% |
17.3% |
2.8% |
|
|
8.1% |
16.9% |
15.9% |
2.7% |
0.3% |
|
|
5.8% |
8.6% |
6.0% |
2.1% |
1.6% |
|
|
57.9% |
38.9% |
62.8% |
88.4% |
95.1% |
|
|
38.0% |
39.7% |
49.9% |
75.2% |
92.0% |
|
|
34.7% |
24.0% |
17.6% |
16.7% |
7.0% |
That clarity actually only began with the All-Star break. The best teams in baseball because the break are the Diamondbacks (23-8), Padres (22-7), Dodgers (20-11), Royals (19-11), Astros (18-12) and Brewers (18-11), and people six have shifted the balance by every playoff spot that was still nearly tied.
The Astros have pulled well clear of the Mariners within the AL West. They were just one game apart at halftime, however the Mariners have been languishing for weeks and, despite making some significant additions, still have a negative record after the trade deadline (the stagnant Oakland A's surpassed them in August).
In the AL wild-card race, one spot has long been all but certain (the second-place team within the East will undoubtedly be a wild card), however the Royals and Twins have taken control of the opposite two. They are tied, 3 1/2 games ahead of the Red Sox, and at the very least six games ahead of everyone else. It's not an insurmountable lead, but here's a Red Sox blog that calculates what the Red Sox would need to do to shut that gap.
The Twins currently have a 90/91 win rate. To get to 92, they should go 25-11.
Assuming they’re 5:5 against AZ/BAL/NYY, they need to play 20:6 against the opposite teams.
They really want to win 10-2 or something like that in the subsequent set to make it work. https://t.co/xnh14lOalA
— Chris Hatfield (@SPChrisHatfield) 22.08.2024
In the National League, the Brewers have separated themselves from the remainder of the Central League. On July 13 – the weekend before the All-Star Game – the Cardinals were just 3 1/2 games out of first place and each team within the division had at the very least an 8 percent probability of creating the playoffs. The Brewers are actually the one team within the division with a record above .500 and not one of the other teams have even a 3 percent probability of playing in October.
In the NL West, the Giants have been higher than most because the break (18-14), but they’ve not been in a position to sustain with the charging Padres and Diamondbacks, who could have caught the heavily favored Dodgers had the Dodgers not also been on a roll. One team will win the West, and the opposite two will likely be clear favorites as wildcards. FanGraphs puts the Padres and Diamondbacks' playoff possibilities on par with the Guardians, who’re one among baseball's best teams with an unmatched vibe.
With the Phillies controlling the NL East, the one other National League spot left up for grabs is the ultimate wild card, currently held by the storming Braves, who just added Austin Riley to an injury list that already includes Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies. If the Mets get going — as they did in July — they may close the gap and make a serious try to unseat the preseason favorites for a playoff spot.
The Red Sox could also get going and knock off one among the AL Central favorites and sneak into the playoffs. It's not like there's nothing to win in the subsequent five weeks.
But when all is claimed and done and the playoff field is ready, we may find that the true sprint to October was over before the calendar even turned to September.
image credit : www.nytimes.com