Treating the explosions on the Nord Stream pipeline as against the law story misses the purpose – and plays into Russia's plan to distract and divide.

In the 2 years since Saboteurs planted explosives on Nord Stream 1 and a couple of – gas pipelines that span the Baltic Sea and connect Russia with Germany – suspicion fell on plenty of possible culprits.

Immediately after the explosion on September 26, 2022, many Western experts Russia blamesThe theory was that Moscow blew up the pipelines as a part of its “hybrid warfare” approach – to show its willingness and skill to attack critical infrastructure – or as “False flag” operation to defame Ukraine.

Since then, journalists and experts have named plenty of culprits, including President Joe Biden and the CIA, Ukraine and Poland.

Swedish and Danish intelligence investigations resulted in February 2024 without identifying the saboteurs, and thus does little to curb conspiracy theories.

Then, in August 2024, German media reported that, as a part of the continued German investigation, the general public prosecutor’s office had issued an arrest warrant against a Ukrainian diving instructor living in Poland.

Kyiv rejected the accusation of official complicity, saying:absolute nonsense”; Krzysztof Gawkowski, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Digital Affairs, meanwhile suggested that the German findings were “inspired by Moscow” and aimed to create a rift between NATO countries.

Nevertheless, it has contributed to a change in the final perception of the incident, and the explosion is now considered a global crime against civilian infrastructure, which is majority-owned by Russia.

And that may be a clear victory for Russia. Moscow can have at all times been concerned with cementing its narrative slightly than checking out the reality.

While investigators are in search of the motives, means and opportunities for the sabotage itself, observers of post-Soviet geopolitics and the tactics of President Vladimir Putin are examining like me may also examine Russia's motives for portraying the attack as a deliberate criminal act. And here the Nord Stream case serves as a reminder of how effectively the Kremlin uses disinformation and manipulation to push its narratives, often to sow discord within the West and distract from Russia's actual crimes elsewhere.

This is true even when – as currently appears to be the case in reference to the Nord Stream explosions – the forensic evidence gathered thus far is consistent with Russia’s preferred narrative.

Nord Stream in context

The explosions on the Nord Stream pipeline occurred seven months after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. By that point, the Kremlin's military offensive had stalled and Putin was directing his efforts toward a protracted war of attrition. His military had Almost 15,000 civilian casualties have already been claimedand in September 2022, there have been sustained attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure, including dams, railways, hospitals, schools, and the energy grid.

Built and operated by a consortium led by majority state-owned company GazpromThe Nord Stream pipelines expanded Russia’s ability to weaponize energy by controlling natural gas prices and flow rates. For this reason, Putin’s opponents, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, viewed Nord Stream 2 as dangerous geopolitical weapon during construction in 2021. The completion of Nord Stream 2 meant that Russia’s gas supplies to Europe – which is essentially depending on Russia for its natural gas needs – Ukraine is essentially bypassed and end the necessity to pay transit fees to Ukraine and Poland.

Thus, Ukraine had a transparent interest in stopping the flow of gas through the Nord Stream pipelines. The same was true for Russia's competitors on the European energy market, including Norway and the United States. And the identical was probably true for German political parties that advocate an energy transition towards sustainable and renewable sources.

Although Nord Stream 2 was accomplished, it was not yet operational on the time of the Russian invasion. blocked by German energy regulatorsAnd Nord Stream 1, which was put into operation in 2012, was closed indefinitely by Russia in August 2022.

More than a mystery

Therefore, it was not a giant consideration for Western analysts to accuse Russia of Destruction of its own, now useless pipeline to signal its willingness and skill to attack underwater infrastructure.

But over time, this view was replaced by stories that treated the sabotage as an actual crime mysterywith a concentrate on uncovering motives and means. Investigative journalists and other analysts examined public statements, leaks from alleged whistleblowers, geospatial data, financial records, and even reenactments of the attack to unravel the case.

Some, including Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh, took responsibility to the CIA and the Oval Office.

Since most US media couldn’t confirm Hersh’s story, they shunned repeating his claims, and the White House has consistently rejected it.

Stirring up conspiracy theories

Hersh’s view includes the assumption that powerful Western interests put pressure on investigators and fed stories to the media with a purpose to hide the reality.

This second-order speculation – the claim that the unique crime was made worse by a cover-up – has long been promoted by Russia as well. After Sweden and Denmark dropped their investigations, Moscow's representative on the United Nations Security Council, Vasily Nebenzia, called on the UN to take over the investigation, saying: “It is as if against the law had been committed – a murder – and a yr later the investigating authorities concluded that the victim was murdered.”

Russian disinformation

Russia is now accusing German prosecutors of preparing for complete the investigation without identifying those responsible.

The appeal of this narrative for Moscow is obvious. First, it matches Putin's argument that NATO is always plotting against Russia. And second, it offers the promise that Russia will get better the prices of the Nord Stream sabotage from the insurance firms. The insurers have thus far refused to pay, citing official findings that the sabotage “an act of war.”

Moscow, which is tirelessly trying to find evidence of NATO and US complicity, will probably not be satisfied with the one arrest warrant issued by the German investigation. Russia also desires to put the US within the dock – in spite of everything, President Joe Biden threaten with a NATO motion Nord Stream in early 2022. And Moscow responded to the German arrest warrant against a Ukrainian by doubling its accusations that the US ordered the attack.

Here, Russia could depend on the words of high-ranking US figures equivalent to Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has repeatedly Disinformation from confirmed Russian propaganda channelsand former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who praised the standard of life in Moscow during a much-criticized Putin interview.

After the Nord Stream explosions each Greene and Carlson They were quick to claim that Russia was not responsible, implying that the United States can have played a task.

Truth is just not the goal

Maintaining the Nord Stream “mystery” distracts attention from Russia’s documented crimes in Ukraine, including Attacks on civilian infrastructure and, based on the UN Human Rights Counciland shows a “disregard for fundamental principles of international humanitarian law and its human rights obligations”.

In the years because the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, Russia has relied on its extensive capacities in Disinformation and propaganda to advance its history. Russia has experience on this.

In January 2022, US government sources reported that Russia Attacks on pro-Russian civilians in eastern Ukraine and blame Kiev to justify the invasion. Similarly, analysts have cited the alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow in May 2023 for example of Soviet-style “false flag” operations. It is that this track record that has led German security forces to suspect that there’s plenty of conspiracy regarding Nord Stream the evidence resulting in Ukraine was fabricated by Russian agents.

Speculation is seductive, and the Nord Stream case has attracted plenty of it over the past two years – a period during which Russia has waged a broad campaign of spreading deliberate lies and disinformation. During the identical period, Putin has repeatedly violated international law.

Russia's version of the Nord Stream affair may possibly be the dominant one when all investigations are accomplished. What is obvious, nevertheless, is that Putin's accusations against Ukraine and the US are motivated not by a pursuit of justice but by a desire to fire up trouble and distract. The truth is just not his goal, but a goal.