What led to the Prime Minister's downfall and what challenges lie ahead

Bangladesh's controversial Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country on August 5, 2024, after weeks of protests, the led to quite a few deaths.

Her departure is a milestone, but it surely leaves the South Asian country facing a Power vacuum into which the military has taken a step back – a minimum of in the interim.

To understand what led to the crisis and what might occur next, The Conversation turned to Tazreena Sajjadan authority on Bangladeshi politics on the School of International Service at American University.

What triggered the demonstrations in Bangladesh?

The protests are based on long-standing discontent over a quota system that 56% of presidency positions in Bangladesh are reserved for various groups, including 30% for the descendants of freedom fighters who fought within the 1971 War of Independence.

This quota system has proven to be an enormous hurdle for the country's large youth population to access coveted public service positions. lots of them are unemployed.

In addition, the situation had change into a controversial issue as a consequence of the various quota jobs that went to supporters of the ruling Awami League party.

Under the immense pressure of a previous Mobilizing students on this issueHasina abolished the complete quota system in 2018.

But in June 2024 Supreme Court ruled that the move was illegalwhich triggered a brand new wave of protests across the country.

In July, a series of strikes by teachers and students took place at Bangladesh’s public universities over recent pension reforms, which, if implemented, would Salary deductions include.

Initially the protests were peaceful, but Fiery speech by Hasina – by suggested that the scholars were “Rajakaar””, a term used to explain pro-Pakistani collaborators during Bangladesh’s war of independence – fuelled tensions.

The Bangladesh Chhatra League – the armed wing of the Awami League – began attacking students with tear gas and live ammunition, with the support of the police. The Rapid Action Battalion, a controversial paramilitary group with a History of extrajudicial executions, torture and compelled abductionswas also used.

According to a video of considered one of the primary victims – a university student named Abu Sayeed – made the rounds on the Internet, more people joined the protests, which led to further violent motion by the police and armed groups.

It is estimated that about 266 people, mostly studentswere killed within the protests, including a minimum of 32 children.

The government closed schools and universities, imposed a curfew and cut off web and telecommunications. At the identical time, student leaders arrested and compelled to withdraw their List of demands.

However, this only led to Declaration of a complete non-cooperation movement and a massive rebellion by protesters demanding Hasina's immediate resignation.

As hundreds of demonstrators gathered for a long march to Dhaka Ignoring the curfew, the Prime Minister resigned and left the country.

Is there a bigger context for the political unrest?

Absolutely. While attention was focused totally on the quota protests, an entire series of complaints against the federal government were piling up.

Under Hasina's rule, Bangladesh has experienced GDP growth – but this has not translated into economic prosperity for a lot of Bangladeshis. Equal opportunities, high youth unemployment And rising inflation were constant sources of tension.

Although the Awami League has a zero-tolerance policy towards corruption, Money laundering, bribery and nepotism scandals stubborn ministers.

And since its landslide victory in 2008, the Awami League has undermined the country's democracy. In 2011, for instance, the federal government ended an agreement This enabled a 90-day interim government of technocrats to arrange elections and oversee the transfer of power.

The suppression of dissenting opinions has also increased. Harassment and imprisonment of activists, opposition members and human rights defenders have change into more frequent. There is now a criminalization of any criticism of the federal governmentincluding satire And Social media posts.

Why is the 1971 war still relevant to Bangladeshi politics?

The War of Independence stays central to Bangladesh’s identity and politics.

The seeds for this were planted many years earlier, in 1947. British partition of the Indian subcontinentThis led to the violent partition of the state of Bengal, with the eastern part becoming East Pakistan.

After the partition of West Pakistan tried to take care of political and economic dominance over East Pakistan, while at the identical time attempting to develop a unified national identity based on the common Muslim majority population despite different cultures and linguistic traditions.

Measures to marginalise Bengali – the mother tongue of 56% of East Pakistanis on the time – and “Cleanse” East Pakistan of Hindu influence contributed to a backlash that resulted in widespread student protests and growing calls for independence.

In 1971, a West Pakistani military invasion aimed toward suppressing independence supporters led to a genocide with East Pakistan, which lasted nine months and resulted within the death of 500,000 to three million Bangladeshis.

The circumstances of that war have shaped Bangladeshi politics ever since. The parties which have dominated the country’s politics, including Hasina’s Awami League, have often politicized their Evidence of the War of IndependencePolitical leaders have also used 1971 as a way to legitimize positions, secure support, or delegitimize opposition parties.

Does Hasina’s departure mark the tip of Bangladesh’s political dynasties?

Hasina’s resignation signals – a minimum of for now – the tip of Awami League rule in Bangladesh.

The countries of South Asia, including Bangladesh, are largely characterised by political dynastiesTherefore, the rejection of the Awami League and the indisputable fact that many also reject other established political parties – the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Jamaat-i-Islami and the Jatiya Party – is extraordinary.

These established parties will little question attempt to regroup. While the Awami League may not have the ability to arrange effectively within the near future given the general public mood, the opposite parties will make a concerted effort to contest the promised upcoming elections.

Right now, Bangladesh can have a possibility to see recent voices and faces in politics, perhaps emerging from the scholar movement.

What should we make of the military’s provisional seizure of power?

Since Bangladesh's independence, the military has played a serious role in shaping the country's political development.

From 1975 to 2011, Bangladesh experienced a minimum of 29 military coups and counter-coups. It also experienced direct military rule from 1977 to 1981 and between 1981 and 1990.

Given the military’s frequent interference in Bangladeshi politics, it shouldn’t be surprising that it Interim inspection of the country now.

Given the political vacuum and current uncertainty, this might mean a level of stability for a lot of Bangladeshis.

However, student leaders have made it clear that they don’t need military involvement in politics. Apparently they’re following this call, General Waker-uz-Zamanthe Army Chief of Staff, assured the protesters that the military would meet their demands.

However, it stays to be seen whether the military will keep its guarantees and hand over full power to a civilian transitional government.

What could occur next?

It is simply too early to invest about what the longer term holds for Bangladesh – the situation is incredibly volatile and changing by the minute.

Hasina's abrupt departure sparked relief and joy among the many thousands and thousands of protesters who helped end her rule.

The protest leaders have expressed a transparent vision for an inclusive, corruption-free, democratic government. What they don’t need is a transitional government formed without their participation and input. Student leaders have compiled a listing of candidates they wish to see within the transitional government. Nobel Prize winner Muhammad Yunus has took over the role of chief advisorMeanwhile, leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-i-Islami are vying for positions within the interim government.

But political transitions are extremely difficult and volatile. There have been cases of Looting, arson and violence throughout the country and Attacks on the Hindu community.

Armed wings of the Islamist Jamaat-i-Islami and the Bangladesh Chhatra League are are blamed for much of the violenceallegedly carried out to delegitimize the protest movement. In response, students and most people have intervened to Protection of places of worship for minorities.

Rumors and Disinformation campaigns will definitely have a major impact in a volatile situation.

Meanwhile, the big Damage to the country’s economy The problems brought on by political unrest and the military curfew may even require attention.

Neighbouring countries, especially India, are following the explosive situation with great attention. International donors and strategic partners akin to the US, the EU and China are also waiting with bated breath to see what happens next, given Bangladesh's regional geopolitics and the worldwide economy.