This 12 months's presidential election incorporates a former president, Donald Trump, running for a non-consecutive term. This is the fifth time in US history that this has happened.
Historically, when a former president ran for a non-consecutive term, voters were more more likely to change their party affiliation.
In 1848, Martin Van Buren, a former Democratic president, ran for a candidate for the newly founded Free Soil Party and attracted many Northern Democrats who were disillusioned with their party's pro-slavery stance. Free floor party outperformed the Democrats in three northern states, allowing the opposite major party, the Whigs, to win the presidency.
And in 1856, former Whig President Millard Fillmore led the newly formed American Party, also generally known as Know-Nothing PartyWhen faced with a alternative between two candidates, Fillmore and Democrat James Buchanan, each of whom seemed deeply involved within the spread of slavery, many Northern Irish voted for the brand new anti-slavery party, the Republican Party.
Fillmore's candidacy in 1856 made a Republican victory within the North virtually unattainable and guaranteed victory for Buchanan, who received only 45% of the vote.
Theodore Roosevelt's 1912 election campaign also caused dramatic changes in voting behavior. When the previous president was on the ballot, tens of millions of voters gave their votes to the opposite major party or to a very latest party.
At that point, Roosevelt was considered one of the essentially the most famous men on the planet. Reformers praised his ability to draw attention and gain support for progressive causes.
These qualities repelled conservative Republicans and traditional Democrats who feared a return of Roosevelt to power.
After failing to win the Republican nomination, Roosevelt became leader of the newly formed Progressive Party, winning six states and 88 electoral votes—the strongest showing ever for a third-party candidate.
However, the split within the Republican ranks allowed the Democrats to win with a landslide victory within the elections.
A former president ran for a second term (non-consecutive term) and won: Grover Cleveland, whose terms of office lasted from 1885 to 1889 and from 1893 to 1897.
The rise of progressivism
When Roosevelt ran for office in 1912, he saw a society shaken by rapid change.
Between 1870 and 1900 Population of the United States increased from around 38 million to over 76 million.
During this time, the business world modified from small-scale manufacturing and native trade to large corporations and factory-based manufacturing.
From 1900 to 1915 one other 15 million immigrants settled in American cities.
A political reform movement generally known as Progressivism appeared in all political parties. It aimed to deal with problems with immigration, urbanizationpolitical corruption, industrialization and the concentration of corporate power.
Roosevelt's political profession benefited from the growing momentum of progressivism. He was elected Vice President as a Republican in 1900 and took office in September 1901 after Assassination of President William McKinley.
Election campaign together with his progressive “Square offer“—with a deal with consumer protection, control of enormous corporations, and conservation of natural resources—the favored incumbent won re-election in 1904 with the most important landslide the country had ever seen.
But in 1908, Roosevelt decided to not run for a 3rd time. Instead, he successfully campaigned for his Secretary of War, William Howard Taft.
But how Taft's Presidency took shape, Roosevelt became dissatisfied with it. What frustrated Roosevelt most was Taft's refusal to make use of executive power to advance progressive goals.
Roosevelt recognized the urgent need for vigorous presidential leadership and Taft challenged for the Republican nomination in 1912.
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At the Republican convention, nevertheless, party leaders rejected Roosevelt and confirmed Taft's nomination. Roosevelt's supporters stormed out of the party, complaining that the party leadership had manipulated rules and procedures to dam the previous president.
Despite his defeat within the nomination, Roosevelt assured his supporters that he felt “strong as a bull moose“ and expressed interest in “leaving” the Republican Party.
Roosevelt's threat to depart his party was repeated greater than 100 years later by one other former president who ran for non-consecutive terms. At the top of 2023 Trump declined to participate participated within the Republican presidential primaries and didn’t rule out the potential for running as an independent.
Trump's candidacy thus hampered efforts to seek out another candidate and missed the chance to win over skeptical Republicans.
The Rise of the Bull Moose Party
Within weeks of Roosevelt failing to secure the Republican nomination, the Progressive Party, popularly generally known as Bull Moose Partyheld its national convention and nominated Roosevelt as its first presidential candidate.
Be Presidential election campaign There was no lack of energy or spectacle. In October 1912 former president gave an hour-long speech immediately after he was shot in an assassination attempt.
He told his followers: “To kill a bull moose, it takes more.”
Harlingue/Roger Viollet via Getty Images
Like the recent assassination attempts on Trump, this attack provoked strong condemnation and mobilized the previous president's closest supporters.
On election day, Roosevelt faced Republican incumbent William Howard Taft, Socialist Party candidate Eugene V. Debs, and the Democratic candidate. Woodrow Wilson.
Many Republicans voted for Wilson because they believed his candidacy was more more likely to succeed than Roosevelt's. Some did so out of disgust at what they saw as Roosevelt's selfish and radical campaign.
The split within the Republican Party offered Democrats a chance that had denied them access to the presidency for many years.
The legacy of 1912
On election day, Democrat Wilson won 40 states and received 435 electoral votes. The Democrats won the House of Representatives and the Senate for the primary time since 1892.
However, Wilson won with lower than 42% of the vote, the bottom share of the vote for a president since Abraham Lincoln's election of 1860.
A unified Republican list would probably have prevailed in 1912.
Taft blamed Roosevelt for 1 million Republicans voted for the Democrats to avert a victory for the progressives.
Historical parallels are never perfect, however the 1912 election invites comparison as considered one of the world's most famous men runs for president for a 3rd time.
The The 2024 elections might be closeWill disillusioned Republicans, fearing a return of Trump to power, vote for Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris, select a third-party candidate, or skip the election?
Graeme Mack doesn’t work for, seek the advice of for, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that might profit from this text, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond his academic employment.
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