Luck influences voting behavior – and the present mood in America could confuse the expectations of young and old voters

Luck could reshape America's political landscape.

Since the Nineteen Sixties and the election of President John F. Kennedy, younger voters have supported Democratic candidates while older voters have tended to support Republicans. But This dynamic has evolvedand today, in 2024, large parts of each groups defy traditional assumptions about their political affiliation.

This shift challenges the age-old political adage that youthful idealism gives approach to conservative pragmatism with age. As pollsters and pundits struggle to clarify the phenomenon, an intriguing theory is emerging: It might be come all the way down to happiness.

The dissatisfied vote for change

I’m a Researcher in interpersonal communication and co-founder and co-director of Mainstreet Laboratory for Political Communication at Florida Atlantic University. Our lab studies and analyzes public opinion and political trends across the country. With the election approaching, I actually have been particularly studying the potential influence of luck on voting behavior.

Worldwide research shows that glad people prefer to go away things as they’re. are inclined to vote for the incumbent in political electionsVoters who’re less glad usually tend to support anti-establishment candidates because they see the federal government as a source of their dissatisfaction.

These results may help explain the Democratic Party's declining support amongst young people.

This group remains to be reliably blue. Vice President Kamala Harris has a lead amongst voters under 30with 50% preferring her to 34% of former President Donald Trump. US voters aged 18 to 35 mainly prefer Democratic views on Issues reminiscent of abortion And LGBTQ+ rights. Nevertheless, they’re voting for the Republicans more often than up to now. especially young men.

Youth isn’t any longer carefree

Declining life satisfaction and happiness levels amongst young Americans could also be one reason for his or her changing political preferences.

Our Survey from March 2024 found that 55% of respondents aged 18 to 34 were dissatisfied with their lives, in comparison with 65% of the overall population.

These findings, and other national surveyschallenge the widespread belief that young maturity is one in every of the happiest periods of life.

Happiness is traditionally represented as a U-shaped curve, with the youngest and oldest voters reporting the best levels of happiness. Young adults worldwide Most reported feeling carefree and glad, having fun with their newfound independence and opportunities. Older people had finally left the stress of balancing work, family and relationships behind and were starting to enjoy their retirement.

Today’s young Americans are unhappier than previous generations. This is true worldwide, in accordance with World Happiness Report 2024however the decline is especially dramatic within the US, where the suicide rate amongst young people increased over 60% between 2007 and 2021.

Experts lead the Dissatisfaction amongst young Americans today is on account of countless aspectsincluding a childhood interrupted by the pandemic, the dramatic increase in School shootings and rising living costs. Young individuals are also stressed by political polarization, distrust of the media and the 2 wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Social media reinforces these fears by encouraging young people to match themselves to others in unhealthy ways and exposing them to loads of negative news, which make reality seem worse than it’s.

All of those happiness-reducing concerns could influence political preferences. Some dissatisfied young voters are drawn to candidates who promise economic stability and growth. Other young adults who’re dissatisfied with the political system want radical change – any change.

Seniors for Harris

The changing political preferences of unhappy young Americans are particularly revealing in comparison to those of older Americans who’ve grow to be happier in recent times.

Current survey data suggests that older voters, who’ve long been the Republican base, are trending toward Democrats in 2024. In September 2024, Harris leads amongst older voters, with between 51% and 55% preferring her to Trump.

These glad seniors seem concerned in regards to the profound changes that might occur under a brand new Trump administration, reminiscent of End much more abortion rightsThe Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022 undid what was considered a serious milestone and achievement of this generation.

Older Americans also value the preservation Social security advantagesa Democratic priority that Trump has strayed from, and maintaining lower prescription drug costs. Both programs help keep older Americans glad and healthy. They have little relevance for young people.

Polls are notoriously unreliable and continuously changing, but age is increasingly not a great indicator of party affiliation.

Luck is vital on the ballot box

I'm not saying that luck determines all voting behavior or explains the changing political preferences within the United States. But I’m saying that it shouldn't be ignored.

My research shows that to grasp why people vote the best way they do, it is crucial to look at happiness alongside other key aspects reminiscent of the economy and private experiences. By examining how happiness is said to age, life experience, and social media engagement, researchers can gain clearer insights into the changing voting behavior of each young and old voters.

The 2024 presidential candidates appear to have sensed this. Harris' campaign is all about “joy” and Celebrating joy and communityThe Trump team is adopting an angrier tone and a more complaining approach.

Ultimately, happiness is greater than only a mood. The literal pursuit of happiness can influence decisions on the ballot box just as much as ideology.

Editor's note: The chart on this story documenting young people's dissatisfaction has been updated to correct a typo. Fifty-five percent of respondents under age 35 reported some level of dissatisfaction with their lives, not satisfaction.