Pennsylvania's mail-in voting system has an issue – nevertheless it's not the one Trump is making unsubstantiated claims about

Postal voting in Pennsylvania doesn’t begin on September 16, 2024, how was previously plannedDue to ongoing legal proceedings, there may be a possibility that the past will repeat itself within the upcoming presidential election on this Commonwealth.

Legal disputes over Pennsylvania’s electoral system attracted nationwide attention in 2020 Former President Donald Trump and his allies within the state exploited the peculiarities of the system to sow doubts concerning the election results.

Trump is setting the stage to do the identical thing in 2024. On September 8, 2024, he posted on Truth Social that an interview with Tucker Carlson revealed that “20% of Pennsylvania's mail-in ballots are fraudulent.” He called on the U.S. Attorney General, the FBI, and Pennsylvania Republicans to do something about it.

Because of the decentralized nature of election administration within the United States, each state—and even each county—has its own rules for counting votes and casting votes.

As Associate Professor of Public Policy I follow Pennsylvania politics very closely and have watched the mail-in voting situation for the past 4 years, so I expect the identical issues to crop up again in November.

Act 77

For much of its history, Pennsylvania has allowed mail-in voting only to a really specific group of voters, comparable to those traveling to a different state on Election Day.

In 2019, Democratic Governor Tom Wolf and the Republican-controlled General Assembly passed Law 77which undertook comprehensive reforms of the state's electoral system.

Every party got something big.

Democrats receive mail-in ballots without excusewhich implies that anyone can apply for a postal vote. Postal voting was way more from Democrats than Republican voters in Pennsylvania, although this will be due partially to misinformation concerning the security of mail-in voting.

The Republicans, then again, has abolished the straight-ticket election that had hurt them in lower-ballot elections. Straight-ticket voting allows voters to pick a complete slate of Democrats or Republicans with only one selection, reasonably than having to vote in each individual race.

COVID and the 2020 election

In Pennsylvania, the power to vote by mail without excuse was put to the test within the midst of a worldwide pandemic.

During the Pennsylvania primary in June 2020, there have been significant delays in processing a flood of mail-in ballots. By comparison, within the 2016 presidential election in Pennsylvania – before Act 77 – only 4% of votes were forged by mail. This share rose to 39% within the 2020 election.

Of course, the rise was not only as a result of Act 77, but in addition as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mail-in voting was popular since it allowed people to vote from home without exposing themselves to possible exposure to the virus. The alarm bells rang among the many district officialsalthough, as some counties of Pennsylvania lasted greater than every week to finish their counts and ensure the outcomes of the primaries.

In the summer of 2020, experts began to speak about a “Red Fata Morgana” or “Blue Shift” in states like Pennsylvania. The terms describe the phenomenon that on Election Day, in-person votes favor Republicans, but in the times afterward, Democrats take the lead when mail-in votes, which are likely to favor Democrats, are counted.

Trump claimed that such a phenomenon was Evidence of a “stolen election.”

PA bans pre-processing of ballot papers

One reason it is really easy to challenge election ends in Pennsylvania is that the state is considered one of the only a few – others are Alabama, Mississippi and North Dakota – which don’t allow Preprocessing of postal votes.

Preprocessing refers to removing postal ballots from their envelopes, checking their validity, smoothing the ballots and setting them aside for counting on election day.

The process sounds easy, nevertheless it is time-consuming when county election officials should repeat it tens of 1000’s of times.

Some states, like Oregonallow poll staff to start out this process immediately as soon because the ballots arrive. Others, comparable to Arkansasallow pre-processing to start only five to seven days before Election Day. Some states also allow voters to “cure”, or correct minor errors on their ballots – comparable to a missing signature or a unique field – if election officials notice an error.

PennsylvaniaHowever, it doesn’t allow ballot counting to start at 7 a.m. on Election Day when polls open. This is a serious reason for the numerous delays in vote counting within the state.

And it’s a peculiarity that Trump and his allies exploited in 2020 to sow doubts concerning the results.

Problem not resolved

Warnings of delays within the 2020 primary and increasing rhetoric from Trump a couple of stolen election all but pushed the Pennsylvania General Assembly to repair the issue. in September 2020However, an agreement failed as a result of other proposed changes, comparable to the ban on postal ballot boxes.

Democrats within the House of Representatives have attempted to pass a separate preprocessing bill. including one earlier this yrIt would allow counties to start processing ballots seven days before Election Day – but not counting them.

But the implications of the 2020 elections appear to have poisoned the compromise within the electoral law, even with regards to pre-processing, which broad support from election experts and doesn’t give any party a selected advantage. In addition, not all districts need to perform pre-processing. For example, less populated districts don’t want to make use of the extra human and financial resourcessince it doesn't save them much time.

What to expect

While September 16 is the primary date on which counties in Pennsylvania must begin processing absentee ballot applications, several court cases Information on voting within the Commonwealth and when and the way votes shall be counted are still pending.

This implies that while Pennsylvania residents' applications shall be processed in September, they will not be expected to receive a mail-in ballot until October.

Meanwhile, the General Assembly unlikely that the principles against preprocessing will change before the 2024 election.

Postal voting has not disappeared with the pandemic. In the 2022 midterm elections 1.4 million residents of Pennsylvania asked to vote by mail. Since voter turnout is way higher in presidential election years, Pennsylvania can expect that number to extend in 2024.

Pennsylvania has redesigned its mail-in ballot, leading to fewer rejected ballots. Nevertheless, the Trump campaign is already Exploiting formalities to reject postal votes within the decisive swing state.

Ongoing legal proceedings In addition to the delays within the vote count, the certification of the Commonwealth ends in November may very well be delayed. Given its emerging status because the must-win state within the 2024 electionsPennsylvania will once more draw the nation’s attention to its electoral system.