They was generally known as big plays. Or possibly long plays. It's not clear when or why football people began calling them “explosive plays” or simply “explosives.” It was probably across the time football people began calling position groups “rooms.”
Football people also cannot agree on what constitutes an explosive play, because there is no such thing as a official definition: some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use fewer.
“People tend to manipulate them in a way that is most beneficial to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last 12 months.
However, there may be a growing consensus that one statistic may be very vital: Explosive play marginso whoever has more in a game is a powerful indicator of who will win the sport. Maybe it's all the time been that way, possibly it means more on this era of upper scoring and more passing, which implies the bend-but-don't-break defenses have the upper hand and the ground-and-pound offense doesn't.
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Georgia's survival at Kentucky is a primary example: Kentucky outgained Georgia (284-262) and had a great running game within the second half. But in that crucial second half — with explosive plays defined as runs of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs) to Kentucky's one, as Georgia's defense gave way but tightened up when needed.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart and Carson Beck (15) survived on Saturday with a 13-12 win against Kentucky. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)
This is only one example from this season, where the info – as in previous seasons – continues to indicate that explosive margin is a key factor:
2024 (to this point)
In SEC games (conference or non-conference), the team with the explosive game margin has a record of 32-2.
The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its time beyond regulation loss to Oklahoma State, where the Razorbacks blew an enormous lead and were hurt by penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus two). The other exception was Vanderbilt (nine explosive points) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosive points).
When the lead is even or close in explosive games, teams give one another a likelihood. But the more serious it gets, the harder it gets. Here's a breakdown by lead, via TruMedia:
- +10 or higher: 10-1
- +5 to +9: 13-0
- +1 to +4: 9-1
- Tie: 1-2
- -1 to -4: 3-4
- -5 to -9: 0-3
- -10 or worse: 0-1
Cumulatively, the info is comparable. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and people three are in the underside 4 in the general range for explosive play. The only SEC team with a negative margin and a winning record is LSU, which recorded minus-10 points in its opening loss to USC but plus-5 points in its win at South Carolina.
Explosive SEC plays per game
| team | Explosives | Enemy explosives | differential |
|---|---|---|---|
|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
|
18.00 |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
|
17.00 |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
Recent season history
Between 2019 and 2023, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponents posted a combined record of 397-72. And the larger the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, in line with TruMedia:
- +10 or higher: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
- Tie: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
- -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
- -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)
(It needs to be noted that 4 of the 12 losses by teams with a margin of 5 or more occurred in the course of the 2020 COVID-19 season.)
Cumulatively, the five SEC champions – and 6 College Football Playoff participants, including Georgia in 2021 – each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The 4 SEC teams that won the national title during that point each averaged at the least 4 more explosive plays than their opponents.
Do you win championships by defending? No, you win them by making explosive plays.
The reason for the info
Three-and-outs are great, but they're not obligatory they usually're also much harder to realize than they was: According to TruMedia, the speed of three-and-outs forced by the SEC defense has dropped, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent 12 months up to now.
But the defense, which forces the offense to remain on the sphere longer and thereby increases the likelihood of errors, creates higher opportunities for itself.
Georgia's defense hasn't allowed a touchdown in its last 4 games, and within the season opener, Clemson was capable of make three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky had only one three-and-out on its 10 offenses. The greater problem was that the Wildcats were prevented from entering into the red zone on all but one possession.
On the opposite side of the ball, offenses which might be making greater chunk plays are reducing their possibilities of making mistakes. Time of possession has due to this fact change into much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) have all averaged less time of possession than their opponents to this point. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.
It's an era of scoring more points, and coaches would slightly rating points than long drives that only yield three points. Turnover differential still matters, as does field position and another traditional aspects. But differential on explosive plays is the factor that tells the story best.
image credit : www.nytimes.com