Latino voters are a growing force in Pennsylvania's old industrial towns — they usually could give Harris or Trump a margin of victory

After Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president in early September 2024, she posted a message to her 284 million fans on Instagram Democratic strategists suggested that an endorsement by Puerto Rican recording artist Bad Bunny could do more to sway the election – particularly in the important thing swing state of Pennsylvania, home to about 300,000 Puerto Rican voters.

But when many Americans consider the de-industrialized eastern counties of Pennsylvania – including Presidential leaders like for instance Northampton – they could think more of Billy Joel's “Allentown“as Bad Bunnies”A candle“, a song concerning the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.

As Professor of History and director of Latina/o Studies at Penn State, I feel each entertainers – the legendary singer-songwriter and the Grammy-winning reggaeton and trap titan – can assist explain the political terrain within the Keystone State, which is widely considered that Battleground that may determine the following president.

“Close all factories”

When Billy Joel recorded his somber song in 1982 about staff being left behind because “they're closing all the factories,” he was mostly describing the situation Bethlehem, Pennsylvania6 miles from Allentown.

From the tip of the Seventies there have been massive Bethlehem Steel Corp. began to dismiss Tens of 1000’s of staff. But Joel didn't think that particularly rhymed with “Bethlehem,” so used the neighboring town as an alternative.

By the Seventies, smaller Pennsylvania industrial towns corresponding to Bethlehem, Hazleton, York, Reading, and Lancaster were losing population and vitality, and in lots of cases the decline had been occurring for a long time.

And for a lot of Americans, especially outside Pennsylvania, the image of those cities hasn't modified since then. They still take into consideration shrinking cities populated by white factory staff.

Growing Latino presence

But Allentown, Bethlehem and other older industrial towns in Pennsylvania have experienced a remarkable revival, thanks partially to the arrival of recent residents – most of them Latinos from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Since the Nineties, these newcomers have helped restore population growth, stabilize housing markets, and supply labor to recent industries corresponding to warehousing and transportation.

Allentown is now 54% Latinos – a better proportion of Latinos than Los Angeles.

Lancaster And Yorkthat are 40% and 38% Latino, respectively, have significantly larger proportions of Latinos than Chicago And recent York. And reading, too 69% Latinosis sort of as Latin American as Miami, at 70%. Of course, the entire variety of Latino voters in these major cities is way larger.

Three aspects are driving Latinos to settle in these cities. They are likely to have loads of it Warehousing and logistics jobs, affordable housing and a small sense of community – especially in comparison with New York City, where Many of those recent residents got here from and in a roundabout way from Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic.

Industrial towns like Allentown, Bethlehem and Reading had Democratic strongholds for a very long time Because of the labor movement. And they still are – although that is now resulting from each the influence of unions and the political leanings of Hispanic voters.

According to a 2022 Pew Research Center survey, 60% of Latino adults In the US, Democrats say the Democratic Party represents the interests of “people like them,” in comparison with 34% who say the identical of the Republican Party.

The 2020 US Census found this to be the case for the primary time greater than 1 million Latinos in Pennsylvania – a number that has since risen to greater than 1.1 million. This includes around 580,000 eligible votersalthough Latinos are likely to do each register and to vote at much lower rates as non-Latino white and black voters.

It is actually an oversimplification to attribute a state or national advantage to only one population group – be it Soccer mothers within the Nineties, Fathers within the office park And values ​​voters within the 2000s or Latinos in 2024.

But in a single A really close election like thissmall shifts within the margins of key groups, corresponding to Latino voters in Pennsylvania, can determine who becomes president.

Puerto Ricans lean Democratic

The Latino vote includes different nationalities and identities and The partisans' preferences differ significantly underneath.

Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, for instance, have shown this utmost loyalty to the Democratic Partywhile Cubans are known to be the most strongly republican, followed by Venezuelans.

Additionally, Pennsylvania's Hispanic population has a really different distribution than the national population. In the USA, for instance, there are people of Mexican descent 60% of all LatinosPuerto Ricans make up 9.5% and Cubans, Dominicans and Salvadorans each make up about 4%.

But in Pennsylvania, 53% of Latinos are Puerto Rican and 13% discover as Mexican. Meanwhile, 11% say they’re Dominican and only 3% say they’re Cuban.

And that brings us back to Bad Bunny, who was born and raised in Vega Baja, a small town on the north coast of Puerto Rico. People born in Puerto Rico are U.S. residents but can only vote in U.S. elections in the event that they continue to exist the mainland. And those that live in Pennsylvania could prove crucial in November.

90,000 undecided votes?

Overall, Latinos were a part of the coalition that helped in 2020 Joe Biden wins the state of his birth and go to the White House.

Biden roughly won 75% of the Latino vote in Pennsylvania to 25% for Trump. Given that Biden won Pennsylvania by just 80,000 votes How the state's 580,000 Latino voters in 2020 divide their votes in 2024 could determine the following president.

This is borne out by the recent survey of Latinos in key Northampton County. This was present in the September 2024 survey of Latinos within the county Harris led Trump 60% to 25%.

This was actually a powerful lead from Harris, but the importance was peripheral.

The poll found that Harris had didn’t match Biden's Latino vote share nationally in 2020, and Trump also fell in need of his own 2020 Latino totals. According to the numbers, about 90,000 Latino voters should still be undecided — and subsequently could play a vital role in deciding who to support and by what margin.

This is why there was a lot speak about whether Bad Bunny will likely be within the running. Both campaigns clearly assume that support from high-profile Latinas and Latinos could help win over community members.

In addition to national support from stars like America Ferrera And Rosario Dawsonthe Harris campaign recently held one Rally in Allentown with Emmy-winning actress Liza Colón-Zayas of “The Bear” and “Hamilton” fame and “In the Heights” star Anthony Ramos – each of Puerto Rican descent.

The Trump campaign, meanwhile, produced Puerto Rican rappers Anuel AA and Justin Quiles on stage to support the previous president at his Johnstown rally in late August.

Latinos are like all other voters in that they make decisions based on a mixture of economic interests, cultural values ​​and community feelings. No one knows if celebrity endorsement will make a difference — but campaigns will try every little thing they will to get undecided voters to commit to their candidate.

The Democratic National Committee announced Sept. 29 that it will spend extra money in the ultimate weeks before Election Day Engaging Puerto Rican and other Latino voters in Pennsylvania.

So while there’s the biggest concentration of Hispanic voters within the US still within the southwestessentially the most crucial group of Latina and Latino voters could also be those that live removed from the border in eastern Pennsylvania.