One yr after the Hamas attack, there’s more continuity than change for Palestinians and Israel

The rapid pace at which events are unfolding between Israel and the Palestinians, and more broadly within the Middle East, can lead people to imagine that change is inevitable.

political scientist I sometimes see significant and disruptive events, corresponding to the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and their consequences as drivers of increased uncertainty Potential to drive broader change.

But within the yr since, not much has modified.

Relatively stable establishment on October sixth

At the start of 2023, the connection between Israel and the Palestinians, and all the region basically, seemed to be stable. In September 2023, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that the Middle East “quieter than it has been for two decades.”

Palestinians widely believed that their representatives – the Palestinian Authority within the West Bank and Hamas within the Gaza Strip – were corrupt and deserved little or no public trust. At the identical time, Palestinian factionalism and the divide between the West Bank and Gaza Strip are emerging was unbridgeable.

Israeli society had seen nine months of popular demonstrations against conservative government reforms, including proposed limits on judicial power. In fact, they were elements of Israeli democracy, including its laws and liberal values weaker for a few years.

Israel's relations with the Palestinians were stable, if tense. Israel exercised military control over Palestinians living within the occupied West Bank.

Israel's approach to managing its conflict with the Palestinians has relied on surveillance technology and intelligence gathering to make sure border security with the Gaza Strip. Regular military operations were believed to discourage Hamas from open violence. There were also economic incentives, corresponding to: Millions of dollars in money were donated to Hamas through Qatar and work permits for Gazans to enter Israel.

The Israeli government's approach was The aim was to chop ties between Gaza and the West Bankwith the aim of weakening the Palestinian Authority. The ultimate goal was to forestall the resumption of political negotiations over the prospect of such a crisis Palestinian statehood.

In the USA, the Biden administration had done this focused his attention abroad totally on China. What attention it paid to the Middle East depended largely on this a defense pact with Saudi Arabia This would have included restoring diplomatic relations between the Saudis and Israel, with little or no attention paid to the Palestinian issue.

It has also been convenient for other key Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to focus less on the Palestinian issue. Your national security goals of to counter growing Iranian power in keeping with those of Israel.

Iran was also curious about maintaining the establishment. It had tried Restoration of relations with various Arab governments and to get some relief from economic sanctions. As a result, some relief got here August 2023 prisoner exchange with the USA

A prospect of change

Experts and analysts viewed the October 7 attack and the next bombing of Israel and the next ground invasion of Gaza because the creation of a Opportunity for change.

There was a consensus amongst observers that the Hamas attack made this clear Palestinian demands for self-determination wouldn’t disappear quietly.

Suggestions for motion included Resumption of political negotiations for a Palestinian state, reform of the Palestinian Authority to revive its legitimacy, and the involvement of neighboring countries in securing and rebuilding Gaza in exchange for improved diplomatic relations with Israel.

Calls for change got here from across the worldwide community. with public demonstrations worldwide. And international legal institutions called for peace and calm: The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court launched investigations into the actions of each Hamas and Israel.

A yr later, hardly any change

A yr later, little of what people imagined has happened.

The Palestinian Authority is concentrated by itself survival amid growing instability within the West Bankincluding violence by Israeli settlers, Israeli military operations and resistance by Palestinian militants.

The humanitarian conditions in Gaza are catastrophic acute hunger, Water shortages and poor sanitary conditions. Some fighting remains to be ongoing Hamas is attempting to regroup where feasible.

In Israel, the war against Hamas continued, as did Israel's technique of democratic backsliding, marked by restrictions on freedom of expression and widespread nationalist, aggressive sentiment. Despite ongoing protests and calls for his resignation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's wartime coalition is surviving and is prone to remain in place until scheduled elections in October 2026.

The statements and actions of the Israeli ruling coalition indicate that it desires to avoid conflict resolution Expansion of Israeli settlements within the West Bank and the expansion of security buffer zones under Israeli military control inside the country Lebanon And Gaza.

The USA was lively: Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the region nine times President Joe Biden officially begins negotiations a ceasefire and hostage agreement within the short term and regional negotiations in the long run. After a ceasefire and that Release of greater than 100 hostagesNone of those efforts resulted in one other end to the war or the discharge of hostages.

As the autumn election approaches, it’s unclear what U.S. efforts will proceed. Most of the American public – 62% – wants the USA to play a minor role or no role in any respectin resolving the Israel-Hamas war.

There are broader interests

Other Middle Eastern countries publicly support and sometimes take part in U.S.-led negotiations, but they’re all concerned with protecting their very own interests.

Egypt and Jordan, for instance, are concerned about this There is a possibility that more Palestinians will flee the fighting and are available into their territory. The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates fear that the The conflict could spread move to other countries.

Iran's position has strengthened somewhat, with a rise in power and a spotlight to his deputiesincluding Hamas, Hezbollah, the Assad regime in Syria, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Until the rocket attacks on Israel on October 1, 2024, Iran had consistently signaled that its predominant interest was stopping a regional war. Its latest president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has repeatedly expressed his desire for one constructive dialogue with the West.

Overall, despite almost a yr of fighting and the lack of so many lives, there’s more continuity than change. International courts take time and have limited powers. Israel's democratic backsliding, it’s 57 yr old career The destruction of the Palestinian territories, Palestinian fragmentation and weak governance, in addition to the dearth of real commitment from neighboring countries and the US remain – as does the absence of a stable or peaceful solution.