When the vice presidential candidates take the controversy stage in New York on Tuesday night, each could fundamentally appeal to a particular group of Californians.
Republican U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio is a Catholic conservative who briefly worked as a enterprise capitalist in Silicon Valley. Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota is a liberal who once advised — and was appointed to — a highschool LGBTQ club “Gavin Newsom in a flannel shirt” by opponents.
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Vice presidential debates made little difference on Election Day, let alone the secondary candidates themselves. Remember U.S. Sen. Lloyd Bentsen's letter to Dan Quayle in 1988? “Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy.” The Bush-Quayle ticket still won by a landslide.
But with the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump exceptionally close, there's a probability things might be different this 12 months.
“This is such a close race, with these razor-thin margins in the swing states, that it doesn't take much to make a difference,” said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College. “So if something big happens in the debate and it only moves a handful of people and a handful of districts in one of these states, that could certainly theoretically be significant.”
The pressure is especially on Vance, especially after Trump lost his only debate with Harris last month.
Vance's debunked claims that Haitian immigrants in his Springfield, Ohio, district were stealing and eating pets led to Trump's memorable claims on the controversy stage: “They eat the dogs! They eat the cats!” — which is now being made into viral memes.
The topic is more likely to come up again when “CBS Evening News” anchor Norah O'Donnell and “Face the Nation's” Margaret Brennan ask Vance about his comment to CNN's Dana Bash that he was willing to “create stories, in order that the American media actually reaches them.” pays attention.”
While it could look like a straightforward win for Walz, it's tricky territory.
“If they mock it and say that Vance admitted he made that statement up, then Vance can talk even more about immigration and the border, which is not good for the Harris-Walz campaign,” Michelson said from Menlo College. “Regardless of Harris' visit to the border, this is an issue where most people believe Trump is pursuing tougher policies, and many people are concerned about immigrants and what a continued influx of immigrants into the United States will do to the United States Economy means.” .”
In a race that, like 2020, could come all the way down to fewer than 44,000 voters in six or seven swing states, every vote counts. The economy and abortion are more likely to be two major issues addressed Tuesday night — and each candidates will work to appeal to coveted suburban women voters. Vance will likely point to Trump's years in office, when rates of interest and inflation were lower. Walz will likely remind voters that Trump appointed Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe vs. Wade and point to Vance's support of a national abortion ban.
In addition to their politics, Vance and Walz also bring very different personalities to the stage.
Vance is 40, a Yale Law graduate and bestselling creator of “Hillbilly Elegy,” about his difficult childhood in Appalachia and Ohio. After Vance met Paypal co-founder Peter Thiel during a Yale speech, he moved to the Bay Area in 2013 to work at biotech company Circuit Therapeutics. On Thiel's suggestion, he was hired by VC firm Mithril Capital in 2016. His California connections have grow to be billionaire donors who helped persuade Trump to sign Vance in the primary place.
Vance was an early Trump critic – one other possible topic of dialogue – but says Trump's time in office has convinced him otherwise. He appears polished and aggressive and likes to debate.
David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University, said Vance must persuade viewers that “these Silicon Valley zillionaires” who support him “are like every other American.”
“It's not an enviable place because even though Harris and the Democrats have raised a lot of money and are hanging out with a lot of wealthy Democratic donors a la Barack Obama, they've been able to mitigate a lot of that criticism by pointing out the craziness of the crypto crowd and the Elon “Musk crowd and connect those groups together,” McCuan said.
Walz, a former highschool social studies teacher and football coach, advocated at no cost breakfast and lunch for all public school children in Minnesota. He served within the Army National Guard for twenty-four years, but was criticized for withdrawing from the service in 2005 to run for Congress despite knowing his unit might be deployed to Iraq, which occurred nearly a 12 months later was the case. He has also faced criticism for his strict COVID restrictions and the George Floyd protests that originated in his state.
He's 60, seems folksy, has posted videos along with his daughter on the Minnesota State Fair and has added the term “weird” against Trump and Vance to the Democratic campaign lexicon.
Walz has a transparent task to satisfy during Tuesday's debate, which begins at 6 p.m. PDT and can air concurrently on Fox and MSNBC, “which is to reach out to rural voters that Democrats have struggled to connect with.” said USC professor and political analyst Dan Schnur.
“Harris didn’t make a big effort in that direction in her debate,” Schnur said. “So that falls to Waltz.”
Walz, like Vance, is a substitute for his No. 1. And Walz's boss is Harris — a Berkeley native who spent her profession as a prosecutor in Oakland and San Francisco before winning statewide offices as attorney general after which as a U.S. senator. San Francisco, whose problems with homelessness and shoplifting make national headlines, has been a relentless political pit, especially through the Trump years. It might be like that again on Tuesday.
“Vance is a pretty good debater, He’s pretty smart,” said Bill Whalen, a research fellow on the Hoover Institution. “But what if it’s too hot and too intense? People won't like him. Walz is a guy next door, he has this kind of barbecue in mind. But what if he has too much caffeine? Maybe he's overdoing it somehow. It’s all about how they perform, not how we expect them to perform.”
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