policy
WASHINGTON (AP) — Election Day is just across the corner. In just a few hours the ultimate votes for the 2024 presidential election can be forged.
In a deeply divided nation, the election is an actual battle between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.
We know there are seven battleground states that may determine the consequence, barring a significant upset. But big questions remain concerning the timing of results, the makeup of the electorate, the influx of misinformation — even the opportunity of political violence. At the identical time, either side are prepared for a protracted legal battle that might complicate matters even further.
Here's what you may watch on the eve of Election Day 2024:
Either way, history can be written
Given all of the twists and turns of the previous couple of months, it's easy to overlook the historic significance of this election.
Harris would turn out to be the primary female president within the 248-year history of the United States. She would even be the primary Black woman and person of South Asian descent to carry the position. Harris and her campaign have largely downplayed gender and race for fear of alienating some supporters. But the importance of a Harris victory wouldn’t be lost on historians.
A Trump victory could be a historic achievement of a distinct kind. He could be the primary person convicted of a criminal offense to be elected to the office of US president, after being convicted of 34 counts of hush money in New York just over five months ago had been convicted.
Trump, who still faces felony charges in not less than two separate criminal cases, argued that he was the victim of a politicized justice system. And tens of thousands and thousands of voters apparently consider him – or are prepared to overlook his extraordinary legal baggage.
How long will it take until the winner is announced?
Election Day within the United States is now often considered election week, as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots — not to say legal challenges — that may delay results. But the reality is that nobody knows how long it should take for the winner to be announced this time.
In 2020, the Associated Press declared President Joe Biden the winner on Saturday afternoon — 4 days after the polls closed. But even then, the AP called North Carolina for Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after votes were counted by hand.
Four years earlier, the 2016 election was decided just hours after most polling stations closed. The AP declared Trump the winner at 2:29 a.m. on election night (technically, it was Wednesday morning on the East Coast).
This time, each campaigns expect the race to be extremely close, barring a significant surprise, within the seven swing states which can be expected to make a decision the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Due to the dimensions of the map and the closeness of the race, it’s difficult to predict when a winner is perhaps determined.
Where can I find initial indications of how the competition might develop?
Look at two battleground states on the East Coast, North Carolina and Georgia, where results could come relatively quickly. That doesn't mean we'll get final results quickly in these states if returns are close, but they’re the early swing states that might give a glimpse of what form of evening we're in for.
To go deeper, have a look at the urban and suburban areas in the commercial North and Southeast where Democrats have made gains since 2020.
In North Carolina, Harris' margins in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, home to the state capital Raleigh and the state's largest city, Charlotte, respectively, will show how much Trump might want to break out of the less populated rural areas he dominates has to squeeze out.
In Pennsylvania, Harris needs high turnout in deep-blue Philadelphia, but she also desires to expand Democrats' lead in suburban districts to the north and west of the town. She campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, where Biden surpassed Clinton's 2016 margin of victory. The Philadelphia metropolitan area, including the 4 collar counties, accounts for 43 percent of Pennsylvania's vote.
Elsewhere within the Blue Wall, Trump must slow Democratic growth in Michigan's key suburban counties outside Detroit, particularly Oakland County. He faces the identical challenge in Waukesha County, Wisconsin, outside of Milwaukee.
Where are the candidates?
Trump is more likely to spend the early hours of Election Day in Michigan, where, as is his tradition, he’ll hold a final night rally in Grand Rapids.
The Republican candidate plans to spend the remainder of the day in Florida, where he is predicted to vote in person – although he previously said he would vote early. He is scheduled to host a campaign party in Palm Beach on Tuesday evening.
Harris plans to attend an election night party at Howard University in Washington, a historically black university where she graduated in 1986 with degrees in economics and political science and was an energetic member of the Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.
Aside from Howard, she has not announced a public schedule for Election Day.
Harris said Sunday that she “just filled out her mail-in ballot” and that it was “on its way to California.”
Who is left to point out up on election day?
On the eve of Election Day, it’s unclear which voters will show as much as vote on Tuesday.
More than 77 million people participated in early voting, either in person or by mail. So many individuals have already forged their ballots that some officials say polling places in states like Georgia could possibly be a “ghost town” on Election Day.
A key reason for the rise is that Trump has generally encouraged his supporters to vote early this time, a reversal from 2020 when he urged Republicans to vote only in person on Election Day. The early voting numbers confirm that thousands and thousands of Republicans have heeded Trump's call in recent weeks.
The key query, nonetheless, is whether or not the surge of Republicans voting earlier this time will ultimately cannibalize the variety of Republicans who show up on Tuesday.
There are also shifts on the democratic side. Four years ago, when the pandemic was still ongoing, Democrats overwhelmingly forged their vote early. But this time, without the danger to public health, it's likely more Democrats will show up in person on Election Day.
This balance on either side is crucial after we try to know early returns. And it’s as much as the election campaigns to know which voters they still should vote on Tuesday. On this front, Democrats can have a bonus.
Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee have outsourced much of their campaign operations to outside groups, including a gaggle largely funded by billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk that’s facing recent questions on their practices. By contrast, Harris' campaign runs a more traditional operation that features greater than 2,500 paid staffers and 357 offices in battleground states alone.
Could there be unrest?
Trump has aggressively spread baseless claims in recent days questioning the integrity of the election. He falsely insists he can only lose if Democrats cheat, regardless that polls show the race is an actual slouch.
Trump could win again on election night whatever the result, just as he did in 2020.
Such rhetoric can have serious consequences, because the nation saw when Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, on considered one of the darkest days in modern American history. And unfortunately, there continues to be a risk of further violence this election season.
The Republican National Committee will deploy 1000’s of election integrity observers on Tuesday to search for signs of fraud that critics fear may lead to harassment of voters or poll employees. At some key polling locations, officials have required the presence of sheriff's deputies along with bulletproof glass and panic buttons that connect election officials with an area emergency dispatcher.
At the identical time, Trump's allies indicate that he has faced two assassination attempts in recent months, raising the opportunity of further threats against him. And police in Washington and other cities are preparing for the opportunity of serious unrest on Election Day.
As at all times, it's value noting that a broad coalition of senior government and industry officials, including many Republicans, concluded that the 2020 election was the “safest” in American history.
image credit : www.boston.com