The elections in Ghana have turn out to be significantly more demanding for politicians. In the past they were often characterised only as an ethnic group. But because the 2008 presidential and parliamentary elections, there was a growing proportion of swing voters.
We discovered this trend in a study that confirms it other.
We define a swing voter as someone who voted for a distinct party within the last 4 presidential elections or who forged a split vote during that period.
As researchers of democratic developments on the African continent, we were eager about the increasing power fluctuations on the continent, particularly in Ghana.
Ghana, where the last elections were held in 2020, is scheduled to carry elections in 2020 December 2024.
We questioned Over 3,000 voters were randomly chosen from 33 countries in Ghana 275 constituencies. We also tried different ones Regions. We included that Greater Accra for its demographic diversity and standing as a state capital.
Our data shows that 29.69% of respondents have voted across party lines in presidential or legislative elections because the 2008 elections. That means almost three out of 10 Ghanaians in our study had previously forged a swing vote. Only in 2000 13% of Ghanaian voters were swing voters.
The data showed that clientelism (the practice of distributing material advantages in return for political loyalty) cannot explain this modification. The perception of party performance has turn out to be more vital.
We found that men, older voters and people with more education are almost definitely to alter their support between elections. Swing voters by ethnicity were the least likely Ashantis And Ewes. However, Ewes was more likely than other groups to vote split.
The increasing proportion of swing voters within the country's elections may very well be good for the country. This creates uncertainty in election results, which should result in greater political accountability and responsiveness to voters' needs. It also creates a more competitive and issue-focused electoral environment.
The role of clientelism
Clientelism is publicly frowned upon in Ghana, but that’s the way it is widespread previously. Also in Fourth Republicwhich began in 1992, major political parties equivalent to the National Democratic Congress and the New Patriotic Party proceed to supply patronageState resources are sometimes used to achieve voter support. This practice has contributed to socioeconomic inequalities. It has enabled the political elite to strengthen power structures by concentrating limited resources on voters whose loyalties are most easily swayed by modest material incentives.
There are two types of clientelism: positive and negative. Positive clientelism is the usage of gifts or guarantees of gifts to buy electoral support. Negative clientelism is the specter of violence or lack of gifts if voters don’t vote as expected.
In our study, regular voters (individuals who voted for a similar party within the last 4 presidential and legislative elections) were more more likely to report receiving gifts or guarantees of favors from their party. They also reported that these gifts were vital to their voting decision. Specifically, voters who reported receiving gifts from one political party before elections were 23% less more likely to vote for the opposite party.
However, voters who reported experiencing threats of violence or lack of welfare advantages were more more likely to vote swing. This implies that when voters are threatened, they’re 24% more more likely to revolt by casting swing votes.
This implies that positive clientelism can still help maintain loyalty to the party, but negative clientelism could turn people into swing voters. This dynamic could also represent a backlash against coercive measures, a trend that’s fueling the growing tendency of voters to simply accept the gifts of political parties vote against her anyway.
performance of a political party
Voters' perceptions of party performance emerged as one among the strongest determinants of swing voting. Voters who prioritized the performance of political parties, particularly when it comes to public goods provision and governance, were 48% more more likely to say they’d ever forged a swing vote.
This suggests that a growing variety of voters in Ghana are moving away from clientelistic elections and as an alternative evaluating political parties based on their ability to deliver on electoral guarantees and improve national welfare.
Demographic aspects
The evaluation also highlighted certain demographic aspects that influence swing voting. For example, older voters, urban residents, and folks with higher levels of education were more more likely to be swing voters. These groups of voters usually tend to have higher access to political information and better political awareness, which allows them to focus more on policy than on partisan ideologies.
Gender differences have also been found, with women being less more likely to switch their voice than men. Ethnic aspects also played a task, with certain ethnic groups equivalent to the Ashanti and the Ewe less more likely to switch votes. The Ashanti have historically rallied across the New Patriotic Party while the Ewe rallied across the National Democratic Congress because these parties were seen as representing the interests of their ethnic groups.
However, the Ewe were one among the country's leading split-ticket electoral groups – mainly in regions outside their home Volta region.
The results of our study suggest that traditional models of Ghanaian electoral behavior that emphasize clientelism and ethnic loyalty don’t explain the dynamics of current elections.
The shift to merit-based voting could have a major impact on political parties. Those who fail to deliver on their guarantees or rely too heavily on clientelistic strategies can have difficulty retaining their voter base.
image credit : theconversation.com