Thanks to a Polynesian princess, a pair of witches and a vengeful gladiator, the domestic box office is poised for its biggest Thanksgiving success because the pandemic.
Disney's “Moana 2” is anticipated to hit theaters on Wednesday and generate between $120 million and $150 million within the U.S. and Canada by Sunday. It shall be added Universals “Evil” and Paramounts “Gladiator II,” each of their second week of domestic screenings.
Box office analysts expect the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, should easily herald $200 million in ticket sales and will even turn into the second or third highest Thanksgiving weekend in movie history.
“The trifecta of 'Moana 2,' 'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II' is a veritable perfect storm for theaters this Thanksgiving,” said Shawn Robbins, director of study at Fandango and founding father of Box Office Theory.
“The holidays used to regularly feature big releases that appealed to the entire audience, but this has been a challenge for the industry so far in the post-pandemic period,” he said. “This year is very different, with such a holy trinity of tentpole releases that could deliver some of the biggest all-around box office returns the holiday framework has ever seen.”
The Thanksgiving holiday hasn't topped $200 million since 2019, in line with data from Comscore. The highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekend is currently 2018, led by “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which generated a combined $315 million in ticket sales. The second-highest shipment throughout the holiday season was $294.2 million secured throughout the same five-day period in 2013.
“Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday season of the year for movie theaters, as it sets the tone for the year-end box office sprint,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The strength of the last few weeks of the year will determine the overall annual box office receipts and whether they are perceived as a win or loss for the industry.”
Disney could use one other animation win.
After years of dominating the Thanksgiving box office with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, his most up-to-date string of releases has did not live as much as expectations.
In 2016, “Moana” opened over Thanksgiving and grossed $82.1 million. The following 12 months, “Coco” took in $72.9 million in its premiere, and in 2018, “Ralph Breaks the Internet” grossed $84.8 million in its five-day premiere. Just before the pandemic in 2019, “Frozen II” increased sales by $125 million to over $130 million over the Thanksgiving holiday after opening the week before.
Meanwhile, “Encanto,” released amid the pandemic, managed to gross $40.6 million in 2021. “Strange World” flopped after collecting just $18.9 million throughout the holiday season in 2022, and “Wish” grossed a meager $31.6 million in 2023. There was no over Thanksgiving in 2020 Disney animated film released.
However, “Moana 2” should surpass these post-pandemic releases. The film arrives in theaters a 12 months after the primary film was named the most-streamed film for youths and families. And over the summer, audiences flocked to Disney and Pixar's “Inside Out 2.” “Inside Out 2” opened to $154.2 million domestically and grossed greater than $1 billion worldwide throughout its run.
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