policy
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican voters in North Carolina forged ballots in greater numbers than 4 years ago, while Democratic turnout fell. Together, these two aspects led Donald Trump to victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, marking the third time he has led the swing state.
While Trump has consistently won North Carolina, his victory over Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 was much narrower — just over 1%. This yr, Trump had a lead of two.8 percentage points when The Associated Press called the race for him at 11:18 p.m. ET, when it became clear that there have been now not enough outstanding votes in Democratic-leaning areas for Harris could have overtaken his lead.
To understand why Harris didn't do in addition to Biden within the state, consider Nash and New Hanover counties.
Hillary Clinton lost Nash County, which is east of Raleigh, but Biden flipped it 4 years later. This yr, Trump was ahead by 2 percentage points when the race was called. Meanwhile, Harris won in New Hanover County, home to Wilmington, but she didn't do in addition to Biden did in 2020.
CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution) vs. Cornel West (Justice For All).
WINNER: Trump
SURVEY CONCLUSION: 7:30 p.m. ET.
ABOUT THE RACE:
North Carolina handed Trump his narrowest swing state victory of the 2020 election, where he trailed Biden by a couple of percentage point but still received lower than 50% of the vote. Four years later, the dynamic has turn out to be much more complicated.
Democratic presidential candidates have voted for North Carolina only twice since 1968 – most recently in 2008, when Barack Obama won the state. But the state is certainly one of the fastest-growing states, with immigration from other parts of the U.S. the most important driver of population growth. Many are college-educated professionals, a demographic that increasingly favors the Democratic Party.
Add to that the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which devastated western parts of the state which can be more conservative and still grappling with the devastation, giving Democrats perhaps their best probability to manipulate the state in years.
WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Trump did higher in North Carolina than he did 4 years ago – when he also won the race. Harris, meanwhile, did not garner as much support as Biden. When the race was called, she would have needed to capture nearly 60% of the remaining votes, and there simply weren't enough votes left in Democratic strongholds to fulfill that threshold.
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