How can the United States seize the good but difficult strategic opportunity presented by the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's tyranny in Damascus? Primarily through a mix of sensible incentives and credible threats against our enemies, foes, allies and potential friends. Let's undergo the list.
Syria
The big query hanging over our Syria policy is whether or not the rebel group primarily chargeable for toppling the Assad regime, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, with its move away from terrorism and the Taliban-like Islamism is sincere. The Biden administration could make a right away goodwill gesture by rescinding the State Department's $10 million reward for Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the HTS leader.
But the US sanctions against Syria and the status of HTS as a chosen terrorist organization should only be lifted with reservations. Will Syria's recent rulers allow religious freedom for religious minorities and freedom of dress for girls? Will they accept the de facto autonomy of the Syrian Kurds? Will they cooperate with international efforts to destroy the Islamic State group? If HTS really desires to cement a special relationship with Washington, it might probably also demand Russia's military withdrawal from Syria, as Egypt's Anwar Sadat did within the Nineteen Seventies.
Lebanon
“If we lose Syria, we will no longer have Hezbollah.” This prediction concerning the terrorist militia got here from Soheil Karimi, an Iranian hard-line commentator. Hezbollah, already decimated by Israel, will struggle to survive because the dominant political entity in Lebanon unless it has a simple option to rearm itself. It is within the interests of Israel, the United States and the Lebanese those who Hezbollah's greater than 40-year rule ends.
How? The legal basis is the complete application of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which insists that “there shall be no weapons and authorities in Lebanon other than those of the Lebanese State.” Hezbollah has overtly ignored the demand for 18 years. Donald Trump may help implement this by declaring in considered one of his social media posts that he is not going to consider Israel obligated to honor its ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah until the group is totally disarmed.
Ultimately, Hezbollah ought to be faced with a fundamental alternative: take part in Lebanese politics as a standard political party that plays by the principles or face further military humiliation by the hands of the Zionist enemy.
Iran
The Islamic Republic is now enriching uranium to almost weapons quality. Like President Joe Biden's warnings to Hezbollah after October 7, his message to Iran ought to be easy: Don't do it.
As for the subsequent Trump administration, it should present Iran with a alternative – and a challenge. The decision would, to place it in colloquial Trumpese, go something like this: “IF IRAN'S EVIL LEADERS ARE AFTER NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS, WE WILL PERSECUTE THEM!” That is, the regime is putting its own existence in danger if it tries to to rush a bomb. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, fresh from his many losses, will understand the purpose.
The challenge can also be easy: Trump should propose what I actually have called “normalization for normalization” as the premise for improved relations with Iran. That is, America is offering Iran an entire normalization of relations, including the lifting of economic sanctions and the reopening of embassies, in return for the normalization of Iran's foreign policy: an entire cessation of support for regional terrorists akin to the Houthis and Hamas and a …irreversible and verifiable end to the Iranian nuclear program. Khamenei may reject the deal outright, as hostility toward America lies on the core of the Islamic Republic's ideology, but it can give the Iranian people a benchmark to strive for as they take heart from last week's revolution in Damascus.
Gaza
In early September, I wrote a column opposing a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. Part of my argument is that Israel couldn’t afford to emerge from the war as a loser, not less than by its enemies. Since the murders of Hamas's Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, the devastating pager attacks, the destruction of most of Hezbollah's arsenal, and the overthrow of Assad, things have modified.
Now that Israel is the clear winner of the war, it must bring its hostages home. Let Hamas attempt to rule from the ruins it has created.
This doesn’t mean that Israel should enter right into a weak agreement. Above all, it could be a mistake for Israel to comply with a gradual repatriation of the hostages, as this may give Hamas an incentive to extend the worth of every additional hostage. Trump could be particularly helpful here by informing Hamas's patrons in Qatar that the United States is stripping Qatar of its status as a serious non-NATO ally and transferring Al-Udeid air base – the headquarters of U.S. Central Command – to the United States Arab Emirates can be relocated if all hostages weren’t released by January twentieth. Leave the remainder to the sneaky Qataris.
Other players? The Turks have to be stopped by Washington from using the revolution in Syria as a chance to settle scores with the Kurds. This means, specifically, that we maintain our troop unity in eastern Syria. The Saudis also have to display regional leadership by helping rebuild Syria and resuming diplomatic normalization negotiations with Israel.
None of this will probably be easy or straightforward. But the tip of Assad's miserable regime opens many doors.
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