Travel is finally back – a brand new era of growth is starting

The global travel industry will fully recuperate from the Covid-19 pandemic this month, based on UN Tourism.

In the primary nine months of 2024, global international arrivals reached 98% of pre-pandemic levels, compared with the identical period in 2019, it said.

The remaining 2% gap might be closed this month, based on the organization, marking a big shift within the industry right into a latest era of growth.

Most regions on the earth have already exceeded this threshold, particularly within the Middle East, where international arrivals rose 29% in the primary nine months of 2024 in comparison with the identical period in 2019, based on UN Tourism. Growth within the region was driven by a rise in visitor numbers to Qatar (+141%) and Saudi Arabia (+61%) during this era, it said.

Africa and Europe have also fully recovered, with arrivals rising 6% and 1% respectively, it said.

The Americas is close, reaching 97% (-3%) of international arrivals this yr, while Asia Pacific is at 85% of pre-pandemic levels, because the region continues to bear the brunt of the slow return of Chinese travelers.

While international travel in Asia Pacific is lagging today, it is anticipated to be the epicenter of world travel growth in the approaching many years.

According to the Airports Council International Asia-Pacific and Middle East, the variety of air passengers is anticipated to greater than double in lower than twenty years – from 8.69 billion in 2023 to 19.49 billion in 2042.

Much of this growth is anticipated to come back from the Asia Pacific region. The airport trade organization estimates that over the subsequent 20 years, greater than a 3rd of latest passengers will come from three countries: China, India and Indonesia.

Hotel corporations are expanding aggressively within the region in anticipation of the tens of millions of individuals expected to enter the center class over the subsequent decade.

Alan Watts, Hilton's Asia-Pacific president, announced on “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday that the corporate now operates 1,000 hotels in Asia-Pacific, a goal the corporate didn’t plan to succeed in until 2025.

“That’s 200,000 bedrooms a night for sale. We have another 915.” [hotels] within the pipeline and in various stages of construction,” he said.

On November 19, Hilton announced a deal to open 150 Spark by Hilton hotels in India, a “premium economy” brand that the company launched in 2023.

“We just signed a deal for 14 mid-range hotels in Vietnam,” Watts said. “So it’s the rise of this middle-class traveler that’s driving the bottom of the pyramid.”

Marriott International opened the first Four Points Flex by Sheraton in Japan in November, CEO Anthony Capuano told CNBC Travel in a Nov. 18 interview with “Squawk Box Asia.” Twelve more are scheduled to open in Japan before the end of the year at Marriott.

The global recovery has been thwarted by the slow return of two types of travelers: Chinese outbound travelers and business travelers.

But Watts said both are recovering, although at different rates.

“Business travel is back with a vengeance,” he said.

Excluding China, business booking trends in the first half of 2024 are “absolutely great, particularly for Southeast Asia.” And “next year is on track to be even better.”

He told Squawk Box Asia that 2024 has been a “tale of two halves” for Chinese travelers.

The first half of the yr was characterised by weak consumer confidence, said Watts. However, increased travel interest within the second half of the yr will impact bookings in Asia Pacific in 2025 – particularly to Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia, he said.

“But we expect it will take 2026 before we see the recovery of the Chinese market for long-haul flights to the US and Europe,” he said.