The road to the Super Bowl leads through Kansas City. After defeating the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play within the AFC Championship Game for the seventh consecutive 12 months. They are actually just two wins away from the best achievement of the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing of their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have the possibility to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.
In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by defeating the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and can look to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before the NFL projection model created by Austin Mock reveals each remaining team's probabilities of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 Playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 Playoffs)
The AFC's powers show no signs of slowing this season because the Chiefs and Bills meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in 4 years.
The Bills concluded Sunday night's showdown with an exciting 27-25 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen got the higher of fellow MVP Lamar Jackson because the Bills star went 16 of twenty-two for 127 yards and added a pair of rushing scores to assist stave off Baltimore's comeback efforts.
The Chiefs were a little bit shaky of their postseason debut, but they defeated the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outnumbering them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third down conversions. That's because defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are essentially the most balanced team on the sector.
As previously mentioned, the Chiefs are aiming to change into the primary team in history to win three straight Super Bowls. Since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes joined forces, they’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy thrice.
It hasn't been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than with over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn't made any mistakes, scoring 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.
Mahomes has also scored 15 touchdowns with just two interceptions in six AFC Championship games (each losses to the Cincinnati Bengals). In fact, the Chiefs haven't lost a single turnover of their last eight games. That will probably be a key point against the Bills, who had three takeaways against the Ravens on Sunday and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.
Mahomes didn't get much help. Its offensive tackles were poor – at the very least when left guard Joe Thuney wasn't doubling as left tackle – and its talented players kept coming into the lineup with injuries.
But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff profession. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer's performance dipped significantly in the course of the regular season, but Kelce is as nimble as ever within the playoffs. He had at the very least 70 yards rushing in 14 consecutive postseason games – a median of 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also led the league in scoring touchdowns in 4 of the last five postseasons.
And yet the trendy NFL dynasty will face one query all week: Can they stop Allen?
Allen accomplished 63.6 percent of his passes for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions in the course of the regular season, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.
Allen was 27 of 40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception because the Bills defeated the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on an important fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs' only loss this season with Mahomes because the starter, and it can have been the performance that launched Allen's MVP campaign.
The Chiefs are 6-3 within the AFC Championship in the course of the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 against Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 against the Bills within the playoffs, including three straight wins during the last 4 years.
• Chiefs possibilities to win the Super Bowl: 30.5%
• Bills' possibilities to win the Super Bowl: 25.9%
Chances of winning the Super Bowl
|
team |
Opportunities |
|---|---|
|
33.8% |
|
|
30.5% |
|
|
25.9% |
|
|
9.8% |
NFC
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 Playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 Playoffs)
The NFC North held the crown all season, however the NFC East is within the hunt for the ring.
The Eagles and Commanders meet within the NFC Championship Game after splitting within the regular season. The Commanders earned a 36-33 home win of their last meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so each games were close.
The Eagles might want an asterisk for his or her loss since quarterback Jalen Hurts left early with a concussion, but their 33 points were the sixth-highest performance of the season behind a powerful performance from Kenny Pickett. The way more vital story was that the Eagles couldn't win despite a 5-2 advantage within the turnover battle.
So what happens if the Eagles can't find enough takeaways within the third? Perhaps this can be a moot point as that they had a slim 1-0 lead of their earlier win. It's rare that ball losses didn't make the difference in either final result.
Still, commanders is not going to need to test this theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers of their last 13 games, including a pair of forced fumbles in an important stretch of the second half once they beat the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 within the divisional round.
Go deeper
The Commanders are one win away from the Super Bowl. Let this marinate a bit
Daniels had the Commanders' offense playing at an elite level of their two road playoff wins. They scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding half-ending sequences, and fumbled only once. They turned it over thrice on downs — a risk-reward formula that proved to be a net positive — but there have been no interceptions or lost fumbles. They even have a missed field goal.
Daniels' leadership in all situations was remarkable. While the rookie has a clutch gene that has turn out to be useful on their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did a powerful job Saturday night in keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions and leading the Commanders to steer in 4 of their five The following possessions resulted in a Detroit rating. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels kept the ball moving always because the Lions tried to make a run.
Daniels could have to be great to steer the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and there are indications he’ll rise to the challenge. During the seven-game winning streak, he passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and added 422 yards and a rating on the bottom. However, three of Daniels' nine interceptions this season got here against the Eagles.
Since getting back from a concussion, Hurts and the Eagles' passing attack has been fleeting. In the 2 playoff wins, he had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns, although he had 106 yards and a rating as a rusher. As a result, wide receivers AJ Brown (three catches for twenty-four yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) didn't make much of an impact.
But fear not, since the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The league's top offseason signing posted 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games as he hasn't slowed down since his torrid regular season.
These teams have a postseason meeting, with Washington playing their wild card match on January 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 within the all-time series.
The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships in the course of the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.
• Eagles' possibilities to win the Super Bowl: 33.8%
• Commanders' possibilities to win the Super Bowl: 9.8%
image credit : www.nytimes.com