The airline industry faces one other tough 12 months, led by Boeing delays

The aviation industry is bracing for one more difficult 12 months as Boeing delivery delays and provide chain problems are expected to last into 2025, aviation consultants say.

Sunday marked one 12 months since a door panel was torn off an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9, an event that reignited a firestorm of questions on Boeing's quality and safety standards.

Since then, the corporate has introduced various changes, including mandatory training for employees and increased inspections, in line with one Company statement released on Friday. Boeing also said it has improved its “Speak Up” system to encourage employees to report workplace concerns.

But that's not enough, Mike Boyd, president and co-founder of aviation consulting firm Boyd Group International, told Squawk Box Asia on Monday.

“The entire board should have been fired,” he said. “The new CEO and the new people there say they are doing something, but this is such a big problem.”

Without aircraft deliveries from Boeing, airlines like Southwest, Wizz Air and Ryanair are spending money they “didn't want to spend on overhauling planes they wanted to retire,” Boyd said.

“Buckle up. It’s going to be a very bumpy year,” he said.

“Boeing will lose a lot of territory to our friends at Airbus. There’s no question about that,” he said, adding that the corporate may turn into more of a “secondary player” to Airbus in the longer term.

According to Reuters, Pete Buttigieg, the US transportation secretary, said on Monday that Boeing still had “a lot more” work to do.

“Culture change at Boeing is something that is still a work in progress,” he said. “The only way to fully assess this is to see that they can continually improve results.”

John Grant, chief analyst at aviation intelligence firm OAG, said noticeable improvements at Boeing usually are not expected until late 2025 on the earliest.

“With regulators buzzing around the company and new processes being put in place, it may be too early to say things are improving,” he said. “The good news is that operationally things haven’t gotten any worse.”

However, “finances and labor relations are a different issue,” he said.

Boeing has not made an annual profit since 2018. The company suffered one other production setback after its machinists began a seven-week strike that led to November and gave employees a 38% wage increase.

A Boeing spokesperson told CNBC the corporate is concentrated on stabilizing the business and executing on its “Safety and quality planThe spokesman highlighted a dozen actions Boeing has taken in 2024, from leadership changes on its board and the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems to expanding its South Carolina facility to increase production of its 787 planes.

The problems in the airline industry go far beyond Boeing, said Brendan Sobie, an independent analyst at Sobie Aviation.

From parts shortages to engine maintenance, he said, “It’s about the entire ecosystem of companies in the industry.”

“It has been a very difficult time and there are no real signs that this will be over any time soon,” he said. “These are problems that will take years – not a single year – to resolve.”

Sobie said airlines were particularly frustrated by reliability and maintenance problems at engine makers Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce.

As for Pratt & Whitney's problems, he offered a hint of positivity for the industry: “It's probably past its worst.”

Engine problems are forcing many airlines, including Hawaiian Airlines and Spirit Airlines, to ground portions of their fleets, Boyd said.

“The engines aren’t there,” he said. “Wizz Air in the EU right now.” 40 planes on the ground for the year.”

That will make it harder to find flight deals in 2025, he said. “If you're in search of really cheaper fares, I don't think even Ryanair's Mr O'Leary can promise that,” he said, referring to Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary.

Scott Keyes, founder of air travel website Going, said airfares are likely to rise in 2025. In a Dec. 30 post, Keyes said sketched How the price of flying to, from and throughout the US has modified because the Covid-19 pandemic.

• 2020: -17%
• 2021: -4%
• 2022: +36%
• 2023: -12%
• 2024: +5%

However, Sobie said capability issues attributable to flight suspensions might be offset by a rise in flights, particularly in Asia Pacific, where the industry remains to be recovering from the Covid pandemic.

He said Flight prices are normalizing to a level above pre-coronavirus fares but below 2022 peaks – but costs and provide chain problems usually are not. This 12 months may bring some improvements, he said, but “overall, these challenges remain.”