Trump's trade war could have a transparent winner: Great Britain

The global markets were affected by fresh volatility this week after US President Donald Trump confirmed the plans to impose tariffs for imports from three of the most important trading partners in America.

On Monday, Trump agreed to pause 25% tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada for 30 days after each countries agreed to take steps to clamp opioid -fenanyl that cross their borders to the United States.

However, there was no break for China, which is exposed to 10% import duties – after which rewarded itself with tariffs of as much as 15% for American goods.

The European economies are also in danger from Trump's tariff regime. The US President announced reporters on Sunday that the EU tariffs will “definitely pass” -but a deal “could” be worked out with Great Britain, a nation with which the US trade is more balanced.

“Great Britain has not exceeded. But I am sure that you think that you can be worked out,” Trump told reporters and added that he “gets along very well” with the left -left left by Great Britain, Keir Sharmer.

Rigid told reporters This week when he had spoken about trade in talks with Trump and, in response to the Guardian, didn’t select any pages between the USA and the EU.

The British finance minister Rachel Reeves insisted last month that Britain is “not part of the problem” in relation to the trade deficits that Trump desires to correct along with his tariff policy.

The United States was the most important trading partner of the UK within the 12 months until September 2024, so official dataConsideration of over 17% of your entire British trade.

Depending on which numbers you take a look at, the 2 countries have either a small trade deficit or excess. What is essential for Trump – who hates it if the United States exports less to a rustic than imported – the numbers are almost balanced.

Since the British economy is fighting Reeves say last month That she “fought against the start of the start” day by day – several analysts said CNBC that the economy could get a thrust from Trump's trade war.

Irina Surdu-Nardella, professor of international economy and strategy on the Warwick Business School, told CNBC that the consequences, even when the United Kingdom is met with tariffs, may very well be increasingly muted than expected.

“In reality, the effects on the British market would be relatively limited to industries such as fishing and mining,” she said. “The service -oriented nature of the British economy protects it significantly from the consequences of tariffs. The tariffs are particularly harmful to the industries with complex supply chains, in which the border were exceeding several times when companies convert inputs into final goods. Is not for the British market The case that mainly excludes banking and consulting services for the USA.

The five largest exports in Great Britain to America were cars, medication and pharmaceutical products, mechanical electricity generators, scientific instruments and aircraft with a total value of 25.6 billion GBP ($ 31.8 billion).

However, the value of these exports was put in the shade by the largest service exports, including financial services and insurance companies with a total value of £ 109.6 billion.

Neri Karra Sillaman from the Business School of the University of Oxford said that avoiding tariffs overall was the ideal scenario as it could strengthen the main industries of the UK.

“If the United Kingdom is barely zariff -free, it may very well be uniquely positioned to placed on investments, talents and recent trading partnerships,” she told CNBC on Tuesday.

“Since tariffs are urging corporations to search out cheaper hubs, Britain could develop into a preferred goal for corporations that need to avoid the restrictions,” she said. “Sectors reminiscent of luxury, fashion, pharmaceuticals and advanced production – by which Great Britain already distinguishes – could see an influx of investment and trading opportunities.”

The British sector, including the automotive, aerospace and financial industry, could also benefit from an increased demand if American buyers look beyond the tariff hit supplier, added them.

“We have seen these patterns before – every trade war changes global economic balance, and this may very well be a moment for the UK to learn from changes, an energetic player and never a viewer,” Sillaman told CNBC.

Alex King, a former FX dealer and founder of Personal Finance Platform Generation moneyagreed that Trump's Great Britain politics could enable a certain economic relief.

“When the United States imposed tariffs on China for the primary time, the Chinese manufacturers led lots of their goods through Vietnam and Thailand to the USA to avoid tariffs,” said King by e -mail. “If the United Kingdom avoids tariffs, it’s in a potentially advantageous position to learn from the same trout from the EU.”

King also argued that the British pound Could turn out to be the “fundamental winner” of a potential trade war that found that the pound after Trump's initial tariff confirmations has increased against the euro, the Canadian dollar as well as Australia and New Zealand.

He said this was a sign that global investors “see Great Britain as a possible secure port”.

“Ultimately, Great Britain may very well be one in all the few essential economies with relatively delicate access to the USA and the EU that make it and the pound to a possible winner.”

On Tuesday, Sterling showed some of his profits against the euro to swap around 83.13 pence per euro. However, the pound increased compared to the US dollar.

Dan Boardman-Weston, CEO of Bri Wealth Management, said Great Britain has a “probability of fighting” to avoid US tariffs, which makes it an attractive market for investors.

“If Trump is completed with tariffs in other countries, it’s plausible that more goods end in Great Britain and that this depresses inflation,” he said. “A bigger investment in Great Britain can also be likely when the tariffs worsen and develop into a more everlasting feature of the worldwide trade landscape.”

He found that interest rates in Great Britain will probably continue and faster than in the United States, which could re -evaluate British companies and falling earnings on British government bonds, which are known as Gilts.

“If that is related to the relative political stability of Great Britain and low-cost rankings, Great Britain is the place where it’s chubby for 2025,” he argued.

According to Chris Metcalfe, Chief Investment Officer from Iboss Asset Management, the dynamics of the UK have changed against Europe.

“Since 2016, there have been reasons for foreign investors to pick an EU country in Great Britain, especially since it is just a bigger market,” he told CNBC on Tuesday.

“Although Trump's tariff policy can look chaotic and tousled, it’s difficult to see a scenario by which he reversed the course and imposes more tariffs in Great Britain than the EU. This undoubtedly creates a positive backdrop for the extraction of US corporations and investments in Great Britain, especially in view of the political chaos in France and Germany. “