How does Nottingham Forest do the 'Big Six' of the Premier League with hardly any ball?

Have Nottingham Forest worked out a foolproof method to beat the 'Big Six' of the Premier League?

The 1-0 win on Tuesday against Manchester United brought her to 18 points from possible 30 in her head-to-head encounters with the historical and financial giants of the Premier League this season.

Of the opposite 14 clubs of the division, only Brighton and Hove Albion can correspond to the success rate of Forest against Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur this season. These points have brought forest within the qualification of the Champions League within the Champions League qualification in a particularly strong position.

But while Brighton often goes stylistically from Toe-toe along with her more famous opponents, the best way by which forest achieves its results is much more remarkable.

Nuno Espirito Santo's team rarely dominates the ball – their average possession of 32 percent is the bottom team in these games. They also generate relatively little – no page has a lower average -XG content against the 'Big Six' – and so they press less intensely than some other side within the division.

How did you do it despite the apparently missing license plate of a successful modern side? Let us collapse.

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While forest, admittedly, created little in “Big Six” solid, they were very effective at the opposite end in suppressing their opponents. Among all games that affect “Big Six” teams this season, Forest's fittings have the bottom average XG with only 2.3. In such games by which the chances for a bonus have, the opening goal is all of the more determined and a knack for beating first developed and greater than some other page 2024-25 achieved the beginning in 24 of their 30 league games.

Their ability to carry back the opposition attacks relies on a mix of compact form, direct approach and the speed of its transitions. The results are a record of only one goal that was received in five home games against the previous 'Big Six' this season and only involves Chelsea.

The likelihood creation of Fast Breaks is a very important feature of many “Big Six” teams The six rank within the Top Six for XG of counterattacks (Manchester City is the exception with its more methodical structure). But Forest rarely transmits itself and is subsequently less exposed than most team-like that they gave the second lowest XG within the Premier League this season for the fastest breaks.

An enormous reason for that is the discipline of their midfield discs – often Elliot Anderson and Nicolas Dominguez – that held their positions as a substitute of taking late runs into the box. Footovision data show that the common distance between Forest's midfield and contours of defense in these games is just 11.6 meters – the bottom team against the opposition of 'Big Six'.

This compactness also transmits its outside of the ownership structure, except that Nuno Espirito Santo often proves its front 4, to press high, exert pressure and block the lanes while the midfield stays deeper to make sure the duvet.

In the next you’ll discover a typical example against Manchester City, by which the 4 front 4 disturb the structure of their opponent, but there’s a big place behind the midfield that decides to remain behind and offer additional protection. The distance between Forest's attack and midfield lines is the sixth highest within the league, the evidence for this defined role splitting: The attackers from Forest remain high, the remaining of the team stays as compact as possible.

If City manages to play through the initial press, Forest quickly retires back to a low block and only stays in front of the ball.

This close defensive shape even frustrates the very best sides and infrequently fall back on inferior opportunities from a distance. The following graphic shows where 'Big Six' teams shoot against Forest in comparison with other opponents. Shots from outside the plate are more common, especially within the left channel, where the variety of 13 percent is significantly higher than six percent elsewhere.

Many left -wing attempts could possibly be seen when Manchester United got here to the bottom with Alejandro Garnacho this week.

The narrow structure of Forest often promotes game switches, and here Dalot Garnacho finds successfully with a Crossfield pass. But because the second film shows, Garnacho, when Garnacho turns right into a shooting position, has again in position to chop off shooting angles, and the Argentine wing player fires a headstrong effort into the stands.

This defensive discipline is just not only reserved for the large occasions, but that Forest has improved across the board. The average removal of the closed shots has increased every season and the jump of this campaign is especially remarkable.

But Nottingham Forests not only transports impressive points from a disciplined defensive setup – in addition they needed their strikers to deliver at the opposite end.

Before forests 1-0 home win against Manchester City, Pep Guardiola Callum Hudson -Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White described as “extraordinary player”. This assessment proved to be prophetic when Hudson-Odoi achieved a late winner for forest.

Each of the attacking quartet of Forest brings something else into the table, but their skills are effective to supply a very important creative lead – especially within the case of attack crossings, which were a consistent source for targets against the opposition of “Big Six”.

Although Forest is commonly inferior because of their defensive priorities, because of Elanga and Hudson -odoi's ball separator, they’re threatened, Gibbs -whites creativity and Wood's clinical refinement through their weight.

This quantity of counterattacks was fully equipped in the beginning of the season in the course of the 1-0 victory of Forest in Angeld-first there since 1969. The profit goal began in her own half, where Forest was in possession again

Elanga then searched ahead and delivered Hudson-Odoi on the alternative flank, which cut inside and a composed finish over Alisson, a spin-cross-field ball.

Trademark Callum Hudson-Odoi

Our winning goal at Anfield pic.twitter.com/bfyzp75kbi

– Nottingham Forest (@nffc) September 14, 2024

The clinical strike from Hudson-Odoi got here from a possibility with a low percentage, and it might be again not to acknowledge the role of happiness within the forest season.

You have 50 goals from a expected hit of only 38-the largest survival of the division. While the leadership is consistently talking about their quality to do that as often because it enables them to perform their schedule more effectively and to take care of this compact form as a substitute of being forced to pursue games.

Nevertheless, Forest deserved her share of luck this season. Their outstanding achievements against essentially the most established pages of the league have presented the qualities that justify their high position within the table.

Nuno's team may not play like a contemporary super club – but when they appear at teams, they’ve consistently found a solution to thrive.