The Mets shouldn’t hold back. They ought to be aggressive buyers on the deadline

NEW YORK — As Carlos Mendoza talked Wednesday about how his bullpen plans change from moment to moment over the course of a nine-inning game, he needed to smile at the concept of ​​having a pregame plan and sticking to it.

“I don't think you ever come up with a game plan and stick to it,” the Mets manager said. “Every time you have to make an adjustment because the game evolves. … You have an idea, but then you have to make adjustments.”

Maybe Mendoza's boss David Stearns should heed this recommendation this season.

The Mets entered 2024 with a transparent, consistent plan, from ownership to the locker room. While they didn't have the lofty expectations of previous spring trainings, they thought they might be legitimate postseason contenders while preserving a sustainable window of future contention. And here they’re, days before the trade deadline, as legitimate postseason contenders who’ve preserved a sustainable window of future contention.

But after one other memorable win Thursday night, a 3-2 walk-off victory over Atlanta that felt like the alternative of so many nightmarish nights at Turner Field, possibly it's time for Stearns and the New York front office to get slightly greedy about 2024. Yes, the Mets can be buyers on the trade deadline. But let's make a case that the Mets should do greater than just sign a reliever in the subsequent week; that the Mets ought to be aggressive buyers like they last were in 2015 en path to an unexpected pennant.

The Mets are adequate

On the morning of July twenty sixth, let's do some blind resumes for the teams through the years.

OK, blindfolds off! What do these fairly similar teams all have in common? They all won the championship.

They were also pretty aggressive on the trade deadline. I ranked the 2018 Dodgers (Manny Machado) and the 2022 Phillies (David Robertson, Brandon Marsh and Noah Syndergaard) as all-in buyers—teams that traded significant capital for prospects for now. The 2019 Nationals signed three relievers, including the guy who would get the last out of the World Series. In 2021, Atlanta took 4 outfielders, including the MVPs of the NLCS and World Series. In 2023, Arizona traded a better to raised position itself for the postseason.

(The 2015 Mets, one other all-in buyer, were 50-48 by minus seven runs on July 26.)

No, the Mets lack the type of rotation and bullpen typically relied on in October. However, New York has an offense that seems built for the postseason. As demonstrated by losing Gerrit Cole twice last month, the Mets' lineup can hang with the perfect. Only Baltimore has hit more home runs for the reason that Mets' winning streak began on May 30, they usually rank fourth in major league home runs this season — ahead of all however the Dodgers within the National League. On Thursday, New York played a dominant Chris Sale because Francisco Lindor turned a Sale error into two runs for the Mets.

Home runs fuel the offense in October. The similarly productive but otherwise configured offense finished fifteenth within the league in home runs in 2022 after which watched Atlanta and San Diego hit more home runs in crucial games of the season. This Mets offense can use its power to come to a decision a brief series.

The National League is open

Here's a very important caveat: If I were covering the Pirates, the Reds, the Padres, or the Diamondbacks, I'd probably say the exact same thing. Because the National League is more open than it's been in years.

Los Angeles and Atlanta have been the highest two teams within the senior circuit over the past few seasons. Both are experiencing more turbulent regular seasons than they’re used to. The Dodgers proceed to have health issues of their rotation, a dynamic that doomed them last October. Atlanta's best hitter and best pitcher are out for the remaining of the season. The team's roster looks like an empty shell of what the Mets normally should take care of.

Although the Phillies have assumed the role of the NL's team to beat, they’re a team the Mets can beat quite well. They notably went 14-5 against Philadelphia in 2022 and even during a losing effort, they went 6-7 against it in 2023. This yr, the Mets are 2-4 against the Phillies. And notably, New York is 10-3 for the reason that start of the 2022 season when facing Aaron Nola or Zack Wheeler.

The timing is definitely right

It's very tempting for teams to control their window of competition – to be cautious this yr and gamble more later – but in doing so that they often miss out on the yr wherein they’ve a probability to win.

The 2015 Mets might have been more cautious: Syndergaard and Steven Matz were rookies, Wheeler was injured, the NL had several superb teams – so surely the Mets' best probability of advancing in October was later? As it turned out, this young rotation was never as healthy or as dominant because it was then, and the Mets' aggressiveness paid off with a pennant.

(In contrast, the Pirates never took the massive step of putting a superb team on top from 2013 to 2015. They still haven't won a postseason series since 1979.)

For the Mets, it's also fair to ask: exactly which yr are they waiting for? Injuries to some key young players this yr mean that New York won't go into 2025 spring training with the plan to provide a talented rookie a starting spot. The full integration of players like Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuña and Ryan Clifford won't occur until 2026 – by which era Lindor can be 32 and Brandon Nimmo 33, nearing their prime.

The goal is to open a sustained window of competition and create real opportunities to win divisions, divisions and championships. The Mets are there. The two players they signed long-term are having the perfect years of their careers. Their most significant first baseman will not be here next yr.

The window of conflict is already open.

What does that mean?

Let's face it: This is where most columns of this type end. There is every argument for trying, now it's Stearns' job to make something of it.

But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that the present shape of the deadline market makes it difficult to get into. Teams just like the Pirates and Reds and Padres and Diamondbacks are all still within the National League, and the variety of sellers is lower than usual. The best starter more likely to be traded may not give you the chance to begin way more often this season. The best reliever more likely to be traded has a walk rate you wouldn't easily get at blackjack.

It's harder to create a deadline blueprint like I do for the offseason because acquisition costs in trades are much harder to forecast than salaries on the open market, so I'll accept suggestions which might be more in keeping with an all-in approach.

1. Deal Garrett Crochet to the White Sox with the understanding that they sign him as a pitcher out of the bullpen in 2024. On Thursday, it was reported that Crochet would favor to stay in a starter's roster for the remaining of the season (albeit with limited innings) unless one other team trying to sign him signs him to a contract extension.

As I argued Thursday morning, the Mets could use a long-term star. Here's a 25-year-old left-handed All-Star who leads the league in strikeouts and is excited about a long-term contract extension. All of this feels good. (As with Wheeler, Crochet's likely umpiring salaries for the subsequent two seasons are depressed by his lack of availability thus far in his profession, so a long-term contract extension would cost less relative to the luxurious tax than it otherwise would.)

Trade Crochet, extend his contract, and make him a multi-inning reliever with scheduled assignments for the remaining of the sport. Imagine him coming in behind your right-handed starters within the postseason, serving as a one-man bridge to Edwin Díaz. Put him back within the rotation in 2025 and beyond. That could be definitely worth the sizable package of young talent it might require, because it might mean the Mets wouldn't should jump into the deep end of the starting pitcher market this winter to search out a free agent already in his 30s.

2. If Crochet is simply too much, mix a rotation improvement – mainly a pitcher who misses more bats than the present starters – with two recent additions within the bullpen and one for the bench.

Jack Flaherty from Detroit and Yusei Kikuchi from Toronto come to mind within the rotation. Flaherty will cost so much, but he too might be a viable option for re-signing.

For the bullpen, a left-handed, high-hitting pitcher ought to be a priority. Move past Tanner Scott and search for his teammate Andrew Nardi or Andrew Chafin of the Tigers, who has been a goal for years. Another pitcher who can go multiple innings could also help keep the group fresh. Cincinnati's Buck Farmer or Detroit's Alex Faedo could work there.

The final player can be a flexible backup who could protect the Mets from regression or injury at various positions. Detroit's Andy Ibañez, Tampa Bay's Amed Rosario, Toronto's Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Oakland's Abraham Toro could fill that role.