Anti-Syrian violence in Turkey complicates the normalization process between Turkey and Syria

The possibilities of a rapprochement between regional rivals Turkey and Syria briefly increased on July 22, 2024, when it was announced that the heads of state and government of each countries were ready for a much-anticipated meeting The aim was to resolve long-standing differences. Within just a few hours dismissed the rumors about an upcoming meeting between the 2 heads of state as false.

The sensitivity on this matter is comprehensible. A recent surge in anti-Syrian violence in Turkey has highlighted the fragility of efforts to revive peace. diplomatic relations with Syriawhich initially of the Syrian Civil War.

This conflict had various effects on Turkey. Ankara sided with the opposition forces in Syria and eventually intervened militarily. occupies parts of the north of the countryMeanwhile, the fighting has led to an influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees into Turkey, sparking anti-Syrian sentiment and, more recently, violence.

On June 30, 2024, Syrian properties, vehicles and shops were vandalized and set on fire within the central Turkish city of Kayseri. Allegations of sexual abuse against a Syrian. Driven by social mediaThe attacks quickly spread and led to essentially the most violent anti-Syrian unrest thus far in Turkish areas with a high proportion of Syrian refugees.

It also sparked or inflamed violence against Turkish military positions in opposition-controlled northwest Syria. The region was already on edge after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaled his desire to revive relations with the Syrian government – which might have profound consequences for opposition-controlled areas.

Relaxation with Damascus?

Erdogan recently called for a “new era with Syria” after years of hostility between the Turkish President and his Syrian counterpart.

Since popular uprisings escalated right into a full-scale civil war in 2012, Erdogan has blamed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for the persecution and displacement of Syrians, complicating negotiations between the neighboring countries.

But now Erdogan has indicated that he’s ready to satisfy with Assad. He hopes that a return to normalized relations will facilitate the return of three.6 million Syrian refugees to Turkey and the shared concern a couple of possible Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.

As a political scientist with a spotlight Security within the Middle EastI can imagine that a diplomatic breakthrough may gain advantage each leaders. For Erdogan, it might ease tensions over Syrian refugees; for Assad, it might be one other sign that his regional isolation has come to an end. But in other ways, it complicates Turkey's already complex and unstable engagement in Syria, particularly with regard to its relationship with Syrian refugees and opposition groups in northwest Syria.

Anti-Syrian unrest and social media

The outbreak of anti-Syrian violence in Turkey occurred just days after Erdogan’s signaled for the primary time the potential of a gathering with AssadThe Turkish president accused the opposition parties of Stir up racism and fuel tensionsMeanwhile, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya pointed to online campaigns calling for violence, and located that 38% of the “provocative and negative” posts on the evening of the riots were written by bot accounts.

Whoever was behind this campaign, it stoked existing tensions in opposition-controlled northwest Syria. Hundreds of offended Syrians took to the streets in several cities. Attacks on Turkish trucks and removal of Turkish flagsand demanded the withdrawal of Turkish forces. In response, Turkey closed its borders with northwest Syria.

The growing anti-Turkish sentiment in opposition-held areas of Syria underscores the complexity of Turkey's attempts to succeed in out to the regime in Damascus. Having established Turkey as an ardent supporter of the anti-Assad forces, Erdogan is now being accused of turning his back on his former allies. Moreover, an agreement that might allow refugees in Turkey to return to flee Assad's brutal measures would amount to treason.

After Erdogan’s intention to satisfy with Assad made the rounds within the media, some factions of the Syrian opposition described it as “The sell-out of the opposition by Turkey.”

Some Syrian experts claimed that normalization with Assad was a step towards massive forced repatriation of refugees to Syria within the face of growing public demands and electoral pressure. As has been the 2023 elections in Turkeythe return of refugees within the country has change into a politicized issue.

All this puts Erdogan in a dilemma. While he desires to appease the Turkish public, he doesn’t wish to anger or break ties with the Syrian opposition, a bunch he previously considered potential ally against Kurdish independence.

Negotiations with Assad

Negotiations with the Syrian regime were long considered a red line for Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). The party viewed Assad as primarily liable for the persecution and expulsion of Syrians.

And until recently, Assad showed no real interest in meeting with Erdogan, blaming him for the violence in Syria because he supports rebel groups fighting against the regime. He recently signaled “He could meet with President Erdogan as long as the sovereignty of the Syrian state over its entire territory is respected and all forms of terrorism are combated.”

So why the diplomatic push for rapprochement now? Part of the reply lies in Erdogan's desire to bring back Syrian refugees living in Turkey for reasons of recognition at home. Even if he fails to succeed in an agreement, he would have the option to persuade a public that’s ““Open door policy” told the Syrian refugees that attempts had been made to cooperate with Damascus, but without achieving any concrete results.

And then there may be the priority of Turkey and Syria concerning the emergence of a de facto Kurdish state, which Autonomous Administration of North and East Syriaalso often called Rojava, in northeastern Syria. Rojava is supported by the USA, but is recognized as a terrorist organization by Turkey.

If that USA withdraws troops To achieve a balance between the 2 countries and the region, Erdogan would should negotiate with Assad about Turkish policy towards northeast Syria.

However, each leaders are currently in a weak position to dictate the terms of the brand new order in northeast Syria. Restoring diplomatic relations would allow each countries to coordinate their efforts to attain a standard goal: Preventing an autonomous Kurdish state.

The Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria foresaw the impact of a possible rapprochement on its political interests. Calls the diplomatic efforts a “conspiracy against the Syrian people” and a “clear legitimization of the Turkish occupation” of the previously predominantly Kurdish areas. The USA can also be against Normalization of relations with Syria without “real progress” towards a political solution to the conflict.

The latest realities within the Middle East

Erdogan's try to restore relations with Syria is also seen as an adaptation to the brand new political realities within the Middle East. United Arab Emirates restored diplomatic relations with Syria in 2018. The Arab League normalized relations with Syria and resumed them in 2023. Saudi Arabia opened again his embassy in Damascus in 2024.

In other words, Syria's isolation within the region is effectively over. In this regard, Ankara could have concluded that it’s in its best interest to take care of diplomatic relations with a rustic with which it needs to barter and coordinate on a variety of military, political and migration-related issues.