Chinese President Xi Jinping has outlined his vision for China’s economic and social future – and Xi Jinping is on the centre of it.
After cementing his political legacy, twentieth Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2022 through confirmed leader until not less than 2027The “Chairman of all“ has now explained how he envisions the following few years.
The timetable was updated on the vital Third plenary session from 15 to 18 July 2024. To China observers like meThe plenum, which brings together party leaders to debate major state and economic issues, provides vital insight into the present pondering in Beijing about where the country sees itself now and where it desires to go. The plenum is accompanied by an official communiqué and a more detailed “Decision“ was distributed a number of days after the meeting.
Xi on the wheel
Often Plenums are crucial for setting recent directions – Take, for instance, the meeting of 1978, which marked the tip of the catastrophic cultural revolution and the start of Deng Xiaoping’s Opening of China.
This recent plenary was removed from such a decisive moment. In fact, it offered little recent when it comes to actual politicsBut it confirmed that Xi sees no reason to deviate from his chosen course or to vary the driving force on the wheel.
The Decision document distributed on 21 July made clear Xi's desire for authoritarian political controlalbeit tempered by a populist approach to coping with among the problems facing China.
The plenum’s decision is primarily a political document aimed toward rallying party supporters behind Xi and his preference for a highly centralized, state-controlled economyThere was no indication that Xi was willing to undertake significant reforms within the face of the weakening economy.
Rather, it was a sign that any questioning of Xi’s policies wouldn’t be tolerated – the Communiqué calls for handling effectively cope with “risks in the ideological field” while improving “the guidance of public opinion.” In other words, each the Communist Party and the people must trust Xi.
One possible sign that the unease continues, nevertheless, is that the choice underscores the necessity to ascertain Xi's central position within the all-important Central Committee and within the party as a complete. This position was already cemented in theory, which raises the query: why emphasize it again now?
Light on details
Xi and his political pondering permeate the choice, making clear that bipartisan control — including his — is critical. This approach will maintain the continued tension between the necessity for innovation to satisfy China's economic needs and ensuring that any policy changes happen inside the framework set by the party leadership.
At its core, the choice sets out how Xi intends to guard what he sees as his legacy.
It subsequently touches on economic, social and security issues that might threaten this heritage – be it stagnating growthTensions with regional rivals and the USA, growing income inequality and a Gap between urban and rural economies.
The resolution is stuffed with intentions but comprises few concrete proposals. Nevertheless, the broad outlines it comprises provide insight into Xi's pondering.
Conflicting news
In economic terms, the choice confirms the shift from an obsession with achieving growth at any cost to an emphasis on the standard of growth.
In this sense it’s emphasized: “High-quality development“ as a key component of Xi's recent philosophy. In concrete terms, this implies a move away from the standard drivers of the economy – labor, capital and land – towards recent technologies and innovations reminiscent of artificial intelligence and green energy.
This approach goals to support China on the Value chain and develop cutting-edge technologies for the longer term.
Xi has touted the transition to “high-quality development” as a way create a fairer societyBut on condition that the overwhelming majority of Chinese staff will not be employed in these advanced sectors, it’s difficult to assume how Xi could accomplish this.
When it involves addressing the downturn in China's economic slowdown, the choice's political priorities also send contradictory signals.
It reiterated the necessity for China to proceed global engagement and the private sector to a equal to the state counterpartHowever, it makes clear that the state sector and state funding will play the foremost role in helping the party achieve its goals, while the private sector will receive “guidance”.
And investors seem skeptical: The Chinese stock market recorded the largest decline in six months when the choice was published.
And there are doubts as as to if China’s engagement on the planet will likely be sufficient to Concerns of the international business world.
Responding to local concerns
The decision undoubtedly identifies a few of a very powerful areas of domestic concern in China. Take, for instance, the thorny issue of Local government debtLocal governments are faced with the duty of obtaining funding from the central government for a variety of pricey social programs, including pensions and medical insurance, that are, nevertheless, inadequately funded.
While local authorities have tried previously to shut budget gaps by selling land, sharp drop in property prices has caused their funds to look increasingly shaky.
The resolution provides for more financial resources to be made available to local governments, which will likely be financed through a central distribution of a bigger share of tax revenues.
In addition, a “clear division” of powers and responsibilities between central and native authorities must be established – a measure that the party had previously promised and which is to be implemented by 2020.
The party leadership's concern about wealth inequality is reflected in the choice, which calls for more comprehensive public services to offer a cushion for those most in need.
The most glaring inequality, nevertheless, arises from the differences between rural and concrete areas in China. Rural households in China suffer significantly lower incomeand the gap has widened in recent times.
The resolution sees stronger and more practical urbanization as the important thing to solving inequality. A key a part of the plan is abolish the household registration system that ties people to their hometown. As a result, many individuals who move from rural to urban areas are denied access to higher urban services because they’re still considered villagers.
The abolition of household registration has been promised for a few years but has not yet been implemented.
Blind faith isn’t enough
Overall, the plenary resolution reveals many intentions but offers few details on how all this could be achieved inside the given timeframe – just five years.
But the choice not to supply anything recent makes it clear that Xi's approach – long established – was and still is the perfect strategy to move China forward. Demands from China and from outside for fundamental change must subsequently be ignored.
But such uncompromising attitudes also pose dangers for China—and for Xi's legacy. Many of the issues plaguing China—particularly the gradual slowdown in economic growth and rising inequality—require greater than good intentions and blind faith that the party knows best.
image credit : theconversation.com