With the attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas, Netanyahu shows his willingness to risk a regional war for his political survival

Israel's apparent assassinations of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top military leaderin Beirut, and Hamas politicians Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehranhave once more raised the specter of a regional war between regional adversaries – a war into which the United States could potentially be drawn.

By targeting these two politicians, the Israeli government showed that it’s willing to risk an escalation of the conflict on recent fronts. And this despite the indisputable fact that some senior defense ministers at best contradictory messages In recent months, there was debate about whether the Israel Defense Forces are sufficiently prepared for a full-scale war in Lebanon or elsewhere after nine months of confrontation within the Gaza Strip.

As a Scholar of Lebanon and IsraelI even have been following recent events within the region with growing concern. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could bet that Iran and Hezbollah haven’t any real appetite for all-out war and would quite pursue a policy of continued attrition against Israel.

If so, it’s a dangerous strategy and any miscalculation could have catastrophic consequences.

Increase the stakes

Shukr was killed in the continuing exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah that began on October 8, a day after Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, sparking a violent and sustained response in Gaza. In particular, it was in retaliation for the July 28, 2024 killing of 12 children within the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, for which Hezbollah was blamed.

The Beirut assassination was a daring and dangerous move by Israel, carried out in broad daylight in town despite repeated calls from the United States and other Western countries. to not attack the Lebanese capital.

By carrying out the Beirut operation, Israel has exceeded the bounds of the “rules of the game” in its war of attrition with Hezbollah since October 7. Until now, the Lebanese capital has only been attacked once by Israel, with the January 2, 2024, assassination of Saleh Arourione other Hamas leader, not removed from where Shukr was killed.

At the time, it was assumed that Hezbollah wouldn’t escalate the conflict due to the death of a Palestinian leader, regardless of how vital he might need been.

But there may be little doubt that Hezbollah will react to this recent attack; the questions are how and when and whether the response to it is going to bring the opponents one other step closer to a full-scale war.

An embarrassment for Iran

Haniya’s assassination in Tehran took place within the context of Israel’s declared commitment kill all Hamas leaders was involved within the October 7 massacre, although the country has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack, contrary to usual practice.

Israel According to reports, Qatar guaranteesHaniyeh's host country that it could not attack Hamas leaders inside its borders. Israel also decided to not kill him during Haniyeh's recent visit to Turkeypossibly out of concern about further angering Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Instead, evidently Israel was waiting for the proper opportunity elsewhere to send a transparent message not only to Hamas, but in addition to Israel's foremost regional adversary and Hamas's foremost sponsor, Iran.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran puts the Iranian regime in an embarrassing position. The attack by a foreign country openly violated Iran’s sovereignty at a time when the regime was preparing to Celebrate the appointment of a brand new presidentThe Hamas leader was one in every of the international dignitaries invited to the inauguration.

The attack demonstrates two things: Iran's vulnerability and Israel's ability to perform an attack based on accurate intelligence and superior technology. Either way, it exposes the weaknesses of the Iranian regime.

The last time Iran claimed that its sovereignty had been violated by Israel – within the attack on its embassy in Damascus on April 1, 2024 – it responded by firing lots of of missiles and attack drones at Israel.

Iran could this time use its proxies, including Hezbollah, or respond directly by deploying its own military from its own territory, because it did in April. On July 31, it was reported that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered a direct attack.

Israel’s internal political conflicts

I consider that the attacks have destroyed any prospect of an early ceasefire agreement within the Gaza Strip, including the discharge of Israeli hostages.

The killings are also more likely to make the war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah much more explosive and dangerous.

All parties, including Israel, are apparently aware that a full-scale war is in nobody's interest. This would explain why, despite months of provocations by all parties, there was no such escalation.

But at the identical time, the region is moving ever closer to this possibility; the Middle East is in a phase of maximum fragility.

And all this is going on while Israel is struggling domestically with major challenges for the political system and the rule of lawThe war in Gaza has delivered to the fore forces inside Israeli society that openly seek to vary the political system and challenge each the command structure and the fighting culture of the military.

A recent mob attack on the military police led by right-wing Knesset members Investigation into allegations of torture and sexual assault of Hamas prisoners in Israel is only one example of the cracks developing inside Jewish-Israeli society.

Towards a full-scale war?

Netanyahu, who critics say is understood for his Desire to remain in powerhas built his profession by exploiting internal divisions. His Dependence on right-wing extremist members his government and the indisputable fact that he’s exploiting internal tensions in Israel have only exacerbated divisions.

His decision to authorise the attacks in Beirut and Iran have to be understood within the context of his struggle for political survival.

I consider that every one of Netanyahu's actions, including the prolongation of the war in Gaza, have to be understood on this context. His political survival relies on the support of far-right parties that seek to proceed and expand the war and openly call for a more aggressive stance towards Hezbollah and Iran.

He's also supported by public opinion in Israel, which supports a confrontation with Hezbollah “with full force”, without taking into consideration the indisputable fact that such an motion would likely have devastating consequences for Hezbollah and Lebanon and would exact an unlimited human and infrastructural toll on Israel.

Netanyahu could depend on the indisputable fact that Iran and Hezbollah have to date shown no desire for a full-scale war, although Hezbollah said it is ready.

So far, Israel has shown no desire for a full-scale war on several fronts. But I fear that events resembling the attacks of the previous couple of days could lead on us right into a downward spiral that might be difficult to regulate.