Qatar’s mediation has already brought diminishing results – the murder of the Hamas negotiator further undermines the Gulf state’s role

When Hamas' long-time political leader was assassinated in late July 2024, it not only sent the complete Middle East into turmoil. It also caused political headaches in Qatar.

The reason for that is that the death of Ismail Haniyeh, which appears to have been the results of an Israeli operation, has already stuttering diplomatic efforts In the Middle East.

The Gulf state has long been the scene of negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, including Haniyeh, who lived in Qatar. But recently Criticism from the USA and Israel because, of their view, the dearth of pressure on Hamas had led the Qatari leaders to query his role.

And then got here Haniyeh's death.

“How can mediation be successful when one party murders the other side’s negotiator?” thought of Qatar's Prime Minister and top diplomat, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Israel is widely believed to be behind the assassination, although nobody has claimed responsibility.

As Expert on Gulf politicsI imagine that bin Abdulrahman's query is valid. As the primary anniversary of the October 7 attack in Israel approaches, the Qatari authorities face a challenge. Mediation has produced diminishing returns – each for the warring parties and for Qatar itself. But a move away from mediation would represent a seismic shift for Qatar, putting it on the forefront of the Core of his foreign policy for a long time.

Diplomacy as politics

Qatar is a small state in an unstable neighborhood. Over the past 45 years, the region has experienced several interstate wars and periods of revolutionary unrest. During this time, successive generations of Qatari leaders have viewed diplomacy and mediation as a way of advancing the country's interests.

As a matter of fact, Qatar's Constitutionin force since 2004, requires a foreign policy “based on the principle of promoting the peaceful resolution of international disputes.”

Such a proper commitment to conflict resolution sets Qatar aside from most other Gulf states. But this approach is rooted in a realistic consideration of how and where a small country can best exert influence in regional and foreign policy.

In this manner, Qatari officials have been acting as mediators for twenty years.

At first they were successful, help to unravel In 2008, a very persistent political crisis in Lebanonwhich looked as if it would result in a civil war. The breakthrough in Lebanon and a two years of service on the United Nations Security Council in 2006 and 2007 helped Qatar gain a outstanding place on the diplomatic map.

But Qatar’s negotiating efforts didn't all the time workQatari authorities failed to attain breakthroughs between warring Sudanese factions in Darfur in 2011 and between the Houthis and the central government in Yemen Decades of civil war since 2014.

Much of the early mediation efforts were led by the experienced Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thaniwho was also appointed Prime Minister in 2007.

Bin Jassim participated in a personalized style policy-making, which attracts on his extensive international contacts and his ability to influence Qatari institutions akin to the Qatar Investment Authority in his diplomatic efforts.

Evolving policy

Bin Jassim resigned as Prime Minister and Foreign Minister in June 2013 as a part of a rigorously planned handover of power to the present Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

At this point, the Qatari leadership faced a backlash by neighbors akin to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates due to what they saw as Qatar's support or sympathy for Islamist movements in the course of the multinational series of uprisings often called the Arab Spring.

In 2017, the Saudis and the Emiratis, along with Bahrain and Egypt break off diplomatic relations with Qatar and accused Doha – without evidence – of supporting regional terrorist groups.

But this criticism didn’t deter Qatar from its policy of mediation as diplomacy. In fact, Qatar’s mediation has evolved and expanded within the ten years for the reason that political transition in Doha in 2013. In 2023, a latest position of Minister of State for International Cooperation was created throughout the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, greater institutional depth And Expertise for policy making.

Qatar’s mediation efforts have also moved away from the unilateral actions with Islamist groups that were seen in the course of the Arabic spring.

Instead, Qatari officials acted on request other countries to act as potential mediators.

In this manner, the Gulf state worked intensively with the United States and representatives of the Taliban in a process that culminated within the Doha Agreement 2020 which set a timetable for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Similarly, within the five years leading as much as the October 7 Hamas-led attacks, the country worked with Israeli officials to facilitate financial and humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip.

Hamas retreats into the tunnels

But since that attack and the next Israeli operation within the Gaza Strip, Qatar's mediation attempts have had only limited success.

It was instrumental in negotiating a brief ceasefire in November, but fighting quickly resumed and the devastation of the Gaza Strip worsened shortly thereafter.

Meanwhile, each American and Israeli politicians Qatar attacked for the continuation of the dialogue with Hamas.

This criticism prompted the Qatari Prime Minister to warn in April: Doha could reassess its situation its role within the Gaza Strip.

Four months after Haniya’s assassination, the trail for further diplomatic steps has narrowed even further. Haniya, as his predecessor as head of the Hamas political bureauKhaled Mashal, had a base in Doha.

The man who was appointed as Haniya’s successor, Hardliner Yahya Sinwaris believed to be in a tunnel within the Gaza Strip and can’t seriously hope to be in Doha given the present circumstances.

After Haniyeh’s death, the White House turned to Qatar to thank the nation for its mediation effortsBut it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see how Qatar could broker a breakthrough.

The talks are continuing. Israeli and Egyptian politicians met in Cairo on August 3, after Haniyeh's assassination, without Qatari representation. But the negotiations collapsed after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly made latest demands.

De-escalation of tensions in Iran

With the prevailing opinion in Doha that the Israeli leadership is just not ready to have interaction in serious talks, let alone a ceasefire, Qatari politicians will likely concentrate on mitigating any Iranian response against Israel. This began with a crisis meeting of the members of the Organization of Islamic Conference, including Iran, on August 7 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

In the absence of a viable political strategy for a ceasefire in Gaza, Qatar's actions in the approaching days and weeks shall be more focused on de-escalating tensions with Iran than on attempting to broker peace between Palestinians and Israelis.