Who will win the WNBA championship? Aces? Liberty? Daring predictions from our experts on the resumption of play

A month without basketball is over. Well, WNBA basketball, to be exact.

After an exhilarating conclusion to the Paris Olympics basketball tournament, the gold medalists from the United States have dispersed across the country to their respective WNBA teams. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic break with the league's best record (21-4) and want to win the franchise's first title. After a somewhat slow start, the Las Vegas Aces are in fifth place at 16-8 but could well complete the WNBA's first three-peat because the Houston Comets of 1997-2000. Numerous other title contenders (Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) are between the 2 2023 finalists with big ambitions, and players in the underside half of the standings are also seeking to throw their hats within the ring.

Before games start again on Thursday, listed below are five predictions for the remaining of the season.

Which team will bounce back within the second half?

Sabreena Dealer: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier back and are plus-11.4 per 100 possessions together with her on the court. Cheryl Reeve not has the burden of the world on her shoulders after Team USA won gold in Paris. Minnesota had the league's best defense all season, although they suffered a slump in July in Collier's absence. Now that they're back to full health, the Lynx can reap the benefits of the league's easiest remaining schedule — a .441 win percentage awaits them. per Tankathon.

TWICE. 🥇 pic.twitter.com/Iqs4yFB8Tm

– Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) 11 August 2024

Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream finish in the highest six of the standings? Probably not. But in the event you consider a franchise within the 7-12 range as a team that would look drastically different within the second half of the season, then the Dream are those you need to keep an in depth eye on. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and in ninth place. The primary reason to expect positive change is that the Dream's best players had time to heal throughout the day without work. Star wing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle injury, and through Howard's absence, Atlanta won only one game. She returned for the ultimate game before the Olympic break after which helped the U.S. 3×3 team win the bronze medal. Perhaps just as essential, significant offseason signing Jordin Canada played just 4 games in the primary half of the season as a consequence of two injuries. Her return could possibly be a serious boost to Atlanta's offense, which ranked eleventh in offensive rating until Howard's injury on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Gray playing together, Atlanta becomes a dangerous team to decelerate.

What is your biggest query?

Pickman: Will an Olympic star who’s currently out of contract win a franchise in the ultimate stretch?

Maybe it is a little bit of recency bias, but I'm watching to see if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) sign with a WNBA franchise to assist in the second half. Although the prioritization rule goes into effect this May, all three are still eligible to hitch the W in the event that they select as a consequence of a small CBA loophole. Of course, not the entire WNBA's contenders have the roster spot to sign considered one of those players, but all three could possibly be the difference maker. Johannes has proven she will make an impact in spurts coming off the New York Liberty's bench. Williams showed fearlessness and high-level playmaking throughout the Olympics, and she or he's excelled within the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn't played within the WNBA since 2022, but she has won EuroLeague MVP in each of the past two seasons and was the most effective player not named A'ja Wilson throughout the Paris Olympics.

Dealer: Do the Aces have enough within the tank to win 3 times in a row?

A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum are each in the highest 15 in minutes per game, and throughout the Olympics they played 163, 115 and 90 minutes respectively (not counting the All-Star Game and other exhibition games). Las Vegas has essentially the most games and the third most difficult schedule with 16 games left within the league. The Aces are currently ranked fifth, in order that they must overtake not less than one team to secure home-court advantage in the primary round and possibly two more to achieve home-court advantage within the WNBA semifinals. As defending champions, they already get the most effective odds of any opponent and now must make up ground against a gaggle that was heavily taxed in the primary half of the season. After the successes of the last two years, it seems silly to bet against Wilson and Co., but 2024 has been an additional challenge from the beginning. On neutral ground with peace of mind, I'd pick Las Vegas against another team, but conditions won't be as favorable for the Aces going forward. Catching up from behind after setting the pace last 12 months might be a brand new challenge for this team.

Who might be Rookie of the Year?

Dealer: Caitlin Clark.

Perhaps no rookie has ever come into the league with such high expectations. Not only was she tasked with making the Indiana Fever a contender, but she also carried the burden of the whole league on her shoulders. She has delivered in some ways, skyrocketing the WNBA's popularity and steadily improving on the court. She leads the league in assists and is number one amongst rookies in points per game. Clark can also be the most effective first-year player (24.8 percent) and has the best effective field goal percentage (50.9 percent) amongst rookies who averaged not less than 25 minutes in not less than 18 appearances this season.

Clark's individual numbers are hard to argue with, but that's not a clear-cut case, as Angel Reese has had an even bigger impact on team success. Reese has a net rating of plus-3.4, while Clark trails at minus-6.8. Additionally, the Sky are 24.9 points per 100 possessions higher when Reese plays, and the Fever are essentially neutral whether Clark is on or off the court. However, the team context isn't enough to surpass what Clark has completed on the hardest position and at the highest of the scouting report.

Pickman: Caitlin Clark.

It appears like an eternity since Clark last played in a WNBA game. But nobody should forget that in her last game before the multi-week break, Clark set a brand new WNBA single-game record with 19 assists. Having to play 11 games in 20 days, Clark and the Fever got off to a slower start than many outsiders expected entering this season. But since Indiana's early-season spurt that ended June 2, Indiana ranks sixth in net rating, and Clark's net rating is almost 16 points higher per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, is third in 3-pointers made and seventh in total points — all while playing the second-most minutes of any WNBA player. More than any single statistic, in the event that they can proceed to enhance on their first half like they did in June and July, Indiana could grow to be an opponent no other franchise desires to face within the playoffs.

Who might be MVP?

Pickman: A’ja Wilson.

She ought to be MVP and she or he might be MVP. The biggest query going into the primary half of the season was whether it could be a unanimous alternative. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have been very close in recent times, but with a second half of the season as strong as Wilson's first, this could possibly be one other aspect she will add to her legacy this summer.

Dealer: A’ja Wilson.

Exactly what Ben said. The WNBA can start creating this trophy for Wilson immediately as she joins the club of three-time winners Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.

Who will win the WNBA championship?

Dealer: I got burned picking New York at the beginning of the 2023 regular season and the beginning of the 2023 finals, and yet now I'm tempted by the Liberty again. They played a superb first half of the season and have the depth needed to remain fresh in the ultimate month before the playoffs. Las Vegas retains the top coach advantage and the Aces have the most effective player on the earth, but New York might just have the higher team this time around.

Pickman: The Liberty have been the most effective team within the WNBA to date. Sabrina Ionescu's continued rise, Jones' dominance and the emergence of viable reserve options helped New York get off to a quick start. But the Aces haven't done enough to sway me from my preseason title decision. Sure, the eight losses are essentially the most they've had since 2022, but with Chelsea Gray within the starting lineup, Las Vegas is 8-2 with a plus-12.3 net rating, one mark just ahead of the Liberty. Wilson is best and so is Jackie Young. The Aces may not have home court advantage on a regular basis this postseason, but I'm not convinced that may matter either.