The Big 12 has embraced its place because the Power Four conference with essentially the most depth, with the difference between No. 1 and No. 16 small and the potential for very competitive games each week high.
The Hotline generally agrees with this narrative. There are not any top-tier programs with top-tier talent within the Big 12. There are not any Ohio State or Georgia equivalents. No clear and obvious national title contenders.
However, a differentiated approach should be taken when evaluating the conference race between the 16 teams.
There is a transparent difference in the standard of teams between the highest and bottom tiers. A handful of teams could win the conference, and a handful could finish last. But the difference is critical. Not every game will probably be close. Not every week will probably be crammed with upsets.
The hotline had little trouble identifying the teams as contenders, pretenders and underdogs. The difficulty was differentiating the teams inside each group.
We don't vote for ties. We hate voting for ties. But there will probably be ties.
Oh yes, there will probably be a draw.
1.Utah: The Hotline has been asked repeatedly how the Utes will adjust to life within the Big 12. We think the query needs to be reversed: How will the Big 12 adjust to the Utes? They are the team to beat because of the mixture of coaching skill, top-notch quarterback (Cam Rising) and powerful offensive and defensive lines. Assuming the injury rate returns to normal after a hellish barrage last season, Utah is the very best bet to represent the conference within the CFP.
2. State of Oklahoma: We considered picking the Cowboys to win the Big 12, and wouldn't be surprised in the event that they were the last team standing. Coach Mike Gundy has a veteran quarterback (Alan Bowman) and returning starters at every position. But every evaluation from the Hotline supercomputer spat out the identical conclusion: Utah's offensive line will dominate the head-to-head matchups in Stillwater and the conference championship.
3. State of Kansas: The Wildcats deserve numerous respect after winning 19 games over the past two seasons — don't be surprised in the event that they find yourself playing for the conference title. Chris Klieman may have to revamp his offense, with second-year quarterback Avery Johnson starring, but KSU's defense needs to be among the finest within the Big 12. (The secondary is stellar.) And not for nothing: The road schedule is completely doable.
4.Arizona: After first-year coach Brent Brennan secured the core of his roster—only just a few players followed Jedd Fisch to Seattle—the Wildcats catapulted into the highest tier of contenders. There's lots to love, starting with the elite aerial duo of quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan. But could unprecedented expectations (each internal and external) change the dynamic and create unexpected potholes?
5. Kansas: The Jayhawks were picked fourth within the Big 12's preseason media poll, which probably pleased coach Lance Leipold. (Let other teams handle the pressure and take the highlight.) Assuming quarterback Jalon Daniels' back holds up, KU has more to love than not on the second line. But we wonder the way it looks with the front seven, which can face a few of the very best offensive lines within the conference.
6. State of Iowa: After a regression in 2022, coach Matt Campbell revamped his program last season when the Cyclones went 6-3 in league play. Will that proceed or stagnate? They are deep in most of the key position groups, from quarterback to the lines of scrimmage to the defensive backfield. But the November opponent lineup is brutal. We expect a quick start and a slow finish in Ames.
7.Texas-Tech: The Hotline has a rather more bullish assessment of the Red Raiders than other prognosticators, an assessment based partly on a schedule that doesn't include Utah, Kansas or Kansas State. That may not seem to be much, but a further win could possibly be the difference between seventh and tenth, or eighth and twelfth. Plus, TTU has among the finest pass-catching groups within the conference.
8.West Virginia: The Mountaineers won five of their last six games last season, have starting quarterback Garrett Greene back and have a wonderful offensive line. So why this modest forecast? Their non-conference schedule is demanding and will take its toll within the early stages of league play as they face Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona in succession. The situation is not going to be resolved until November.
9.UCF: The Knights' first season within the Big 12 began poorly but ended with three wins within the last month. There's good reason to consider the momentum continues for coach Gus Malzahn, who has been on the job for 4 years. If quarterback KJ Jefferson plays to his potential after transferring from Arkansas, UCF could enter the competition.
10. TCU: Sonny Dykes has been a head coach on the Power Five level for six years, 4 at Cal and two at TCU, and he's coming off one successful season: the improbable, magical run to the 2022 national championship game. So forgive us for not being willing to provide the Horned Frogs, who had one in all the hardest conference schedules within the Big 12, a leap of religion. This is a pivotal 12 months for the Dykes regime.
11. Baylor: Coach Dave Aranda has arguably the most well liked job within the conference after two disappointing seasons. It's hard to see a big change within the Bears' trajectory with all of his core players at his disposal. Once momentum is lost and dark clouds gather, negativity tends to linger.
12.Cincinnati: The halcyon days of Luke Fickell, Desmond Ridder and top-25 rankings seem a decade ago for the Bearcats, who recorded a conference win last 12 months during their first Big 12 season. Will 2024 be higher? Yes, but only marginally. UC isn't able to fight for a top-half spot, let alone transform right into a true contender.
13. Colorado: The Buffaloes didn't have the appropriate personnel on the lines of scrimmage to compete within the Pac-12 last 12 months. Those issues have been addressed by coach Deion Sanders, which should lead to higher performances each week. But the schedule is amazingly difficult. CU plays all the top teams within the Big 12 and has a grueling slate of non-conference opponents ahead of it. Five wins overall and three in conference feels about right.
14. State of Arizona: No team within the Big 12 has more uncertainty on the quarterback position than the Sun Devils. No team enters the season with more questions on the skill positions. And no team has a tougher conference schedule. Add all of it up, and Kenny Dillingham faces challenges that make 2024 seem to be the primary 12 months of an enormous rebuild, not the second. If a coach with just three wins under his belt ever deserved a raise, it's Dillingham.
15.Brigham Young: The second 12 months within the Big 12 will resemble the Cougars' inaugural season within the conference, once they won just two games and were often beaten savagely. Kalani Sitake's spot is heating up quickly, and the roster doesn't have enough playmakers to chill the temperature. Plus, the schedule is hard: If the Cougars don't beat Baylor on Sept. 28, they may not get their first conference win until November.
16. Houston: The Cougars hired Willie Fritz from Tulane to switch Dana Holgorsen, but don't have enough to get out of the underside division. They could well lose ground to the competition while Fritz tackles his renovation project. If the Cougars finish in last place, nevertheless, they'll likely have company.
Originally published:
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