The long-delayed elections in South Sudan shall be a milestone – but economic decline and political unrest are jeopardising the election

Elections are crucial milestones in Post-conflict countries – and nowhere is the anticipation of voters as great as in South Sudan, the youngest nation on this planet.

The country that gained independence in 2011 After a protracted conflict with Sudan, there have been no elections since then.

A date for a national vote has been set: December 22, 2024But the timing stays questionablewith the United Nations and others doubting whether adequate preparations have been made.

The proposed vote follows Years of delays: Elections were imagined to happen in 2015, but they were postponed after the young country descended into civil war.

The 2024 election could shape the longer term of a rustic still faced with the challenges of peacebuilding and governance – South Sudan entered a transition phase after the civil war in 2018, but Sporadic, especially inter-communal violence continuesA national vote offers a vital opportunity to consolidate the hard-won peace and pave the approach to a more stable and democratic future.

But the country has not succeeded in Robust dial frame The conditions are crucial for fair and credible elections. These include constitutional, legal, financial and political conditions that enable a reputable national election. In addition, deep-rooted disagreements amongst political leaders threaten to exacerbate the situation.

As a scientist specializing in Global governance and human security in Africa, I share the priority that a failure or delay in these electoral processes could lead on to dangerous regression into conflict.

Lack of funding for elections

Successful elections could enhance South Sudan’s international fame by demonstrating political maturity and a commitment to democracy after years of instability. Both regional and global actors have called on the federal government to implement the 2018 Revitalized agreement to resolve conflict in South SudanDespite delays in implementation, a roadmap to guide the peace process and elections was adopted in August 2022.

In December 2022, the federal government newly assembled key committeesincluding the National Constitutional Review Commission and the National Election Commission, as precursors to elections. However, each institutions face financial challenges and the National Constitutional Review Commission has not yet received any funding.

These financial problems represent a serious obstacle. Although the National Electoral Commission and the Council of Political Parties, a body designed to advertise political dialogue and cooperation, have received some funds, these will not be sufficient to operate fully. International stakeholdersincluding the United Nations, the African Union and the EU, had expected the federal government to finance the elections, but the continuing delays have left international bodies that advise and encourage the federal government sidelined. concerned in regards to the lack of progress.

Decline in oil revenues, economic difficulties

South Sudan is wealthy in oil reserves but extremely poor. It is currently facing a significant decline in capability to finance electoral processes. This decline is primarily on account of a pointy decline in oil revenues, which was attributable to economic difficulties and the Diversion of resources by the ruling elite.

At independence in 2011 and before the conflict that began two years later, South Sudan’s day by day oil exports amounted to 300,000 barrelsHowever, ongoing conflict and infrastructure damage have led to a gentle decline in production, with current exports reduced to around 150,000 barrels per day. Forecasts point to a continued Halving production roughly every five years. Factors exacerbating the decline in South Sudan's oil revenues include fluctuating world oil prices, internal instability, and poor-quality crude oil.

Potential investors are further deterred by war-damaged oil wells and the logistical and political complexities related to exporting oil through neighboring Sudan. Disruptions in oil exports were discovered after a devastating rupture within the vital pipeline that transports crude oil from landlocked South Sudan to the Red Sea port of Port Sudan and from there exports it world wide. The rupture occurred during fighting between the warring Sudanese factions: the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces.

The payment structure for Oil revenues stipulates that personal oil firms claim almost 60% of production, while neighboring Sudan also receives a big share under agreements made during independence. As a result, South Sudan only receives revenue from about 45,000 barrels of total day by day production, which ranges between 150,000 and 170,000 barrels. From this limited allocation, the federal government funds 98% of the state budget.

Returnees and refugees pose a humanitarian challenge

In addition, the return of over 1 million South Sudanese for the reason that signing of the 2018 peace agreement, along with Thousands of refugees The flight from the conflict in Sudan has further highlighted the humanitarian challenges facing the young country within the face of its economic difficulties.

This includes South Sudanese who’ve been suffering severely from the continuing conflict in Sudan since April 2023. In addition to this humanitarian burden, there are still hundreds of South Sudanese who’re in Internally displaced individuals Camps awaiting a protected return to their communities.

While financing the elections is a challenge, the actual crisis lies in a profound lack of trust between the parties to the peace agreement.

Disagreements amongst policy makers

President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar – the 2 largest parties that might contest any election – have a sophisticated shared history and deep-rooted mistrust of one another which jeopardizes the integrity of the whole electoral process.

The two clashed and have been on opposing sides since 2013, resulting in a civil war. Their complex relationship now threatens the integrity of the electoral process for fear of ethnic tensions.

Critical tasks similar to Training and deployment of 33,000 security forces continues to be ongoing, threatening national stability. Ensuring nationwide election security is of paramount importance, but the shortage of a unified national security force raises concerns about voter safety.

Unlike other post-conflict African countries, similar to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia and Sierra Leone, where the international community has facilitated elections, the transition process in South Sudan depends solely on the present transitional government, which is predicted to take over until December 2024.

Despite South Sudan's political and security challenges, immediate motion can enable peaceful elections. Dialogue with the leadership, accelerated funding and improved security mechanisms are essential. At the identical time, regional and international actors could be engaged to make sure robust financial support and to perform key tasks. When a rumor about joint ticket between Kiir and Machar is concludedit could potentially reunite the country and set it on a path to stability.

Ahmed Hersi, a regional analyst for the Horn of Africa, contributed to this text.