Bay Area voters may soon be asked to assist stabilize the region's crisis-ridden public transportation system.
A regional committee of transit officials, politicians, union and business representatives, and citizen groups was established to explore ways to save lots of BART from financial collapse and make sure the solvency of other transit agencies within the Bay Area.
The 18-member Special Committee on Transport Revenue Measures began meeting in June to develop recommendations for putting a public transit funding measure on the 2026 ballot. The committee will meet through October to make a decision what kind of measure to placed on the ballot, what it should fund and the way it needs to be funded.
Since the pandemic, public transit ridership within the Bay Area has steadily increased but still not reached pre-pandemic levels. As state and federal aid dries up, transit agencies within the region are expected to face budget deficits totaling at the least $600 million a 12 months – enough to trigger massive service cuts that will significantly impact the economy, convenience and climate goals, in accordance with estimates from the Metropolitan Transportation Agency (MTA).
The committee's formation comes as BART faces a $35 million deficit in fiscal 12 months 2026. But the funding measure cannot advance unless state lawmakers pass a bill allowing it to be placed on the ballot. It could also compete with a regional inexpensive housing funding measure that was faraway from the 2024 ballot on the last minute and will find yourself on the 2026 ballot.
David Canepa, district manager of San Mateo County, is a member of the committee and said that there isn’t any consensus throughout the group on tips on how to proceed.
“The people on the task force don't agree on where the funds should come from. The polls show that the public doesn't want this. We don't agree among ourselves either. So it's a tough task,” he said.
The task force was formed shortly after two Bay Area lawmakers – Democratic Senators Scott Wiener of San Francisco and Aisha Wahab of Hayward – blocked a state bill that will have asked voters to approve a $750 million annual public transit bailout package.
The bill would have authorized regional transportation authorities to place the funding measure to a vote in 2026 to assist stabilize public transit, avoid service cuts, and improve local transit.
The bill would have given the MTA the green light to use for a sales tax, payroll tax, property tax or vehicle registration surcharge for as much as 30 years. But MTC leadership said it needed more time to “reach consensus on how to structure a regional measure that will protect public transit in the Bay Area well into the future.”
More than two dozen organizations, including the California Taxpayers Association, the California Association of Realtors and the California Chamber of Commerce, also opposed the bill. One letter said SB 1031 would put Bay Area businesses at a competitive drawback and impose excessive sales taxes on working families and businesses. Both the California Taxpayers Association and the California Chamber of Commerce said they’d not heard from the brand new committee, which is reviewing a possible ballot proposal for a similar 12 months.
It's not clear what exactly can be funded by a future ballot measure, but a poll last 12 months by polling firm EMC Research found support for taxes to scale back Bay Area traffic, fix potholes, and improve and expand public transit is fairly low. The poll found that 55% of voters would approve of a half-cent sales tax for transportation improvements, 51% would approve of a 0.17% income tax, and 55% would approve of a 0.36% payroll tax. That's not enough support to pass a funding measure at this point.
EMC Research said in a presentation to the duty force last month that “Bay Area voters are pessimistic and sensitive to tax increases.”
“There is currently no great interest in taxes of any kind,” Canepa said.
A survey conducted by the Bay Area News Group and the Silicon Valley three way partnership last fall also showed little enthusiasm for brand spanking new taxes.
According to a poll of 1,802 registered voters in Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo counties conducted by Embold Research, 56% say commuter rail — BART, Caltrain and light-weight rail like VTA and Muni Metro — is very important to the Bay Area and needs to be maintained, even when it costs taxpayers more cash.
But that will not be enough to attain the two-thirds majority currently required in California for such special taxes, and the 55 percent minimum required for such measures, which state lawmakers need to put to voters in the autumn, would even be unlikely to be reached.
Jim Wunderman, president and CEO of the Bay Area Council, sits on the committee reviewing a possible funding measure. Wunderman points to a 2023 council survey that shows BART could see as many as 300,000 additional trips over the course of the workweek, boosting ridership to over 50% of pre-pandemic levels, if crime, safety and cleanliness were addressed more quickly.
Wunderman said the survey shows that concerns about these issues far outweigh the explanations for not using the BART line and much outweigh concerns about telecommuting. Ninety percent of respondents said their top priority was more frequent cleansing of trains and stations. Nearly half of respondents said they’d witnessed crime on the BART line.
“I don't think we can pass a measure without restoring public confidence in safety,” Wunderman said. “I think once that happens, the public will be much more open to financial support.”
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